MLB Home Run Props and Best Bets for Today, July 8th
These are the two best home run props for today, July 8, 2025:
- Jackson Chourio
- Nick Kurtz
With the last week of the first half of the MLB regular season underway, the MLB All-Star game is right around the corner. Here are a few dinger picks before we head to the MLB’s midway point.
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Home Runs Odds
Jackson Chourio to Hit a Home Run (+600 | BetMGM) vs. (SP: Clayton Kershaw)
For our first pick, we’re going with someone in arguably the game of the night, where the Milwaukee Brewers will take on the Los Angeles Dodgers.
This will be Dodgers’ pitcher Clayton Kershaw’s first start since reaching 3K strikeouts. Because of that, I’m expecting a bit of a letdown from a psychological standpoint from the future Hall of Famer.
On the surface, Kershaw has been sufficient this year with a 3.43 ERA, but if you look a little closer, he is due for regression. According to Baseball Savant, Kershaw is in the 3rd percentile in average exit velocity and the 4th percentile in hard-hit percentage.
On the other end, we will target a guy who has absolutely raked lefties, Jackson Chourio. The once highly touted prospect is slugging .620 against the same side, with five home runs and a .1010 OPS.
At +600 on BetMGM, this number is just too good to pass up.
Nick Kurtz to Hit a Home Run (+333 | BetMGM) vs. (SP: Didier Fuentes)
For our second pick, we will take a home run favorite of the 2025 MLB season: Nick Kurtz.
Kurtz has been one of the bigger surprises this season, with 13 home runs in just 185 ABs in his rookie campaign.
Against right-handers, Kurtz is slugging .579 with a .923 OPS, where 12 of his 13 home runs have come against this same side. As impressive as he appears on the surface, he is equally remarkable analytically. According to Baseball Savant, Kurtz is in the 76th percentile or greater in the following categories: xSLG, average exit velocity, barrel percentage, and hard hit percentage.
On the mound for the Braves is another highly rated prospect, Didier Fuentes. Like most young guys, the velocity is there for Fuentes, but at this time, there isn’t much else. He has been susceptible to allowing power, as he’s allowed three dingers in just 12 innings of work.
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