2023 MLB Home Run Derby Odds

Kevin Rogers Sports Betting Expert

3 minute read

The field is officially set for the 2023 T-Mobile Home Run Derby in Seattle on Monday, July 11 and betting markets are live for the fan-favorite event of MLB All-Star Weekend.

So, without further ado, let’s dive into the betting odds for this year’s contest. Odds provided by betMGM. Analysis by Michael Crosson.

2023 MLB Home Run Derby Betting Odds

• Pete Alonso (Mets) +300
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays) +350
• Luis Robert Jr. (White Sox) +450
• Julio Rodriguez (Mariners) +500
• Adolis Garcia (Rangers) +650
• Randy Arozarena (Rays) +1000
• Mookie Betts (Dodgers) +1200
• Adley Rutschman (Orioles) +2000

Two-time derby champ Pete Alonso enters as the clear cut favorite to win the event at +300, aiming to become the second player in MLB history to win the derby three times, followed by the 2019 runner-up Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at +360, and then a first-time participant Luis Robert Jr. at +500.

Prior to last year’s derby, Alonso was the two-time defending champ. However, Julio Rodriguez finally managed to knock him off his throne by cranking 31 home runs to Alonso’s 24 in the second round of last year’s event – becoming just the fifth player in derby history to hit 30+ home runs in a single round, and note, he did it twice.

Rodriguez, representing the hometown Mariners in this year’s derby, is listed with the fourth-best odds on the board at +600 – and is likely the betting option with the most value after hitting a total of 81 home runs at last year’s event and losing to Juan Soto by one homer in the final round.

Alonso’s first derby win came during the 2019 All-Star Break in Cleveland as he defeated Guerreo Jr. by a score of 23-22 in the finals to lift the crown – but that amount wasn’t even enough to reach the final round in 2022 as Alonso managed to top that number with 24 homers in the second round of last year’s event, and still got smoked by Rodriguez.

Does the 28-year-old Polar Bear still have the stamina to outlast the young bucks and cement his name in derby history? Only time will tell, but this year’s event appears to be wide open for the taking.

MLB Home Run Derby - First Round Matchup Odds

• 1 Luis Robert Jr. -220 vs. 8 Adley Rutschman +175
• 2 Pete Alonso -185 vs. 7 Julio Rodriguez +155
• 3 Adolis Garcia -150 vs. Randy Arozarena +120
• 4 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. -185 vs. Mookie Betts +155

Right off the bat, we get a rematch of last year's semifinal slugfest between Pete Alonso and Julio Rodriguez in which the duo hammered a combined total of 55 home runs in the second round -- with 32 of those homers being hit by Rodriguez.

Rodriguez flamed out in the finale against Juan Soto as he hit just 18 homers in the championship round. However, make no mistake about it, this is a heavyweight showdown set for the opening round, and the winner of this matchup may very well win the derby.

In terms of value, though, one of the most intriguing options on the board is Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at -185 to eliminate first-time participant Mookie Betts.

Betts is having an excellent season, currently on pace to set a career-high in home runs with 23 on the year already -- but cranking out homer after homer with little time in between requires a completely different skill set as opposed to simply blasting a hanging curveball over the wall in a real game.

Mookie may be the most decorated player of the bunch, but Guerrero Jr. has experience in this event and nearly won it. He hit 29 homers in the first two rounds of the 2019 derby before falling to Alonso in the finale with just 22 home runs -- and that sounds like a tall order for the five-foot-nine, 180-pound Betts.

We see it all the time. Great hitters decide to give the home run derby a spin at some point once they are already past their prime. Sometimes the grown man strength kicks in and it works out beautifully, but usually they fall flat on their face -- Mookie seems like a prime candidate for the latter.

Distance of Longest Home Run

• Over 485.5 Feet (-120)
• Under 485.5 Feet (-110)

Total Home Runs by Winning Player

• Over 58.5 (-120)
• Under 58.5 (-110)

Total Home Runs In Tournament

• Over 280.5 (-110)
• Under 280.5 (-120)

Total Home Runs In First Round

• Over 162.5 (-115)
• Under 162.5 (-115)

MLB Home Run Derby - Winning League

• American League (-230)
• National League (+185)

MLB Home Run Derby Betting History

• 2022 - Juan Soto, Washington
• 2021 - Pete Alonso, New York Mets
• 2020 - Cancelled
• 2019 - Pete Alonso, New York Mets
• 2018 - Bryce Harper, Washington
• 2017 - Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
• 2016 - Giancarlo Stanton, Miami
• 2015 - Todd Frazier, Cincinnati
• 2014 - Yoenis Cespedes, Oakland 
• 2013 - Yoenis Cespedes, Oakland 
• 2012 - Prince Fielder, Detroit
• 2011 - Robinson Cano, New York Yankees

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Kevin Rogers

Kevin has been handicapping professionally since 2007 at VegasInsider before shifting to ScoresAndOdds. He focuses on MLB, NFL, college football, NBA, college basketball, and NHL and mainly uses trends, systems, and situations as his top handicapping angles. More from Kevin Rogers