New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Picks, Predictions, Odds

The New York Yankees (61-23) will take on the Boston Red Sox (45-38) Saturday for game-three of a four-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 PM ET at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts and can be viewed on FOX.  

Score Prediction

Yankees 6, Red Sox 4

Best Bets 

• Yankees -1.5

Updated on 12/23/2024

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New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Betting Predictions

The New York Yankees enter this matchup first in the AL East standings,15 and a half games ahead of the second place Tampa Bay Rays. The Yankees have won the first two games of this series and have won seven of their last 10 games. New York’s offense has looked solid against Boston with six runs scored in game one and 12 in game two. Their bullpen has not been as dominant in this series, allowing five runs in both games one and two. While this is normal for most teams, the Yankees have a team ERA of 2.95 (2nd) this season. The southpaw Jordan Montgomery is expected to take the mound Saturday. Montgomery is 3-2 in 16 games this season with an ERA of 3.19 and has given up 76 hits, 32 earned runs, and struck out 72 batters in 90.1 innings.  

Boston is currently third in the AL East standings, 16.0 games behind the New York Yankees for first place. The Red Sox have struggled in the first two games of this series and have lost seven of their last 10 games. Boston’s offense has averaged just 3.9 runs per game over that stretch, well below their season average of 4.66 runs per game (6th). Their bullpen has struggled as well, allowing opponents 5.2 runs per game over their last 10, well above their season ERA of 3.76 (10th). As if things were not going bad enough for Boston, Rafael Devers has been listed as day-to-day after tweaking his back in Friday’s game. As of Friday night, the Red Sox have still not announced a starting pitcher for Saturday’s contest.  

The Yankees are 4-1 SU against the Red Sox this season. I like that trend to continue and for New York to take game-three of this series. It is tough to back the Red Sox knowing one of their main starting pitchers more than likely will not be taking the mound. The status of Rafael Devers is also unknown which is concerning as he is the fire that fuels Boston’s offense. Backing the Yankees here as they should have another big day with their bats.  

New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Betting Odds

MLB Odds | World Series Odds 

New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Betting Resources

• Date: Saturday, July 9, 2022
• Matchup: AL East
• Stadium: Fenway Park
• Location: Boston, Massachusetts
• TV-Time: FOX - 7:15 p.m. ET

New York Yankees Betting Analysis

After dominating the Red Sox on Friday night, the Yankees are now 61-23 SU, 43-41 ATS, and have an O/U record of 37-44-3. The total has gone under in six of the Yankees last 10 games. Going against this trend, the total has gone over in five of their last six against AL East opponents. New York is 5-1 SU in their last six road games against Boston and are 27-14 SU on the road this season.  

The Yankees offense has not only been dominant, but they have been consistent as well. As a team New York has a batting average of .243 (13th), on base percentage of .326 (3rd), slugging percentage of .443 (2nd) and have scored 436 runs (1st). Center fielder Aaron Judge has played a huge role in that success with a batting average of .287 (87-303), 30 home runs, and 64 RBIs. Designated hitter Giancarlo Stanton has been productive as well with a batting average of .237 (59-249), 21 home runs, and 54 RBIs.  

New York’s bullpen has looked a little off in this series but have been great throughout the season. As a team they are allowing opponents a batting average of .213 (T-1st), have a WHIP of 1.07 (1st), and have an ERA of 2.96 (2nd). The southpaw Jordan Montgomery is expected to take the mound Saturday. Montgomery is 3-2 in 16 games this season with an ERA of 3.19 and has given up 76 hits, 32 earned runs, and struck out 72 batters in 90.1 innings. In his most recent start against the Guardians, Montgomery struck out eight batters in 5.0 innings while giving up three hits and one run. 

Boston Red Sox Betting Analysis

Following Friday’s loss, the Red Sox are now 45-39 SU, 46-38 ATS, and have an O/U record of 34-41-9. The total has gone under in four of the Red Sox last seven games. Following this trend, the total has gone under in 12 of their last 19 games against the Yankees. Boston is 1-5 SU in their last six home games against the Yankees and are 21-20 SU at home this season.  

The Red Sox have been productive with their bats throughout the season. As a team Boston has a batting average of .261 (1st), on base percentage of .325 (4th), slugging percentage of .416 (8th) and have scored 393 runs (6th). The shortstop Xander Bogaerts has been solid this season with a batting average of .311 (91-293), seven home runs, and 34 RBIs. Bettors should keep an eye on Rafael Devers status as he has been huge for Boston this season with a batting average of .330 (106-321), 19 home runs, and 51 RBIs.  

Boston’s bullpen has struggled in the first two games of this series but have been pitching well over the course of this season. As a team the Red Sox are allowing opponents a batting average of .234 (8th), have a WHIP of 1.23 (10th), and have an ERA of 3.77 (10th). It looks likes Saturday’s starter will be a game time decision as the Red Sox have yet to announce a starting pitcher. Kutter Crawford (2-2, 5.04 ERA) would be my best guess, but with three starting pitchers on the injured list it is tough to predict who Boston will decide on.  

Key Players to Watch

• NYY: Aaron Judge - OF
• NYY: Gleybar Torres - 2B
• BOS: Rafael Devers - 3B
• BOS: Xander Bogaerts - SS

Probable Pitchers

• NYY: Jordan Montgomery - LHP (3-2, 3.19 ERA)
• BOS: Kutter Crawford - RHP (2-2, 5.04 ERA)

New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Betting Conclusion

I like the Yankees to take game three of this series. With a beat-up Red Sox bullpen, I expect the Yankees to have another big day with their bats. Montgomery gave up four hits and three runs in just 3.1 innings of work in his first outing of the season against Boston, however, after getting settled in for the season I think he should see more success this time around. Backing the Yankees runline here as the moneyline does not offer much value.