San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Game 5 Picks, Predictions, Odds

The San Diego Padres will take on the Philadelphia Phillies Sunday for Game 5 of the NLCS. First pitch is scheduled for 2:37 PM ET at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania and can be viewed on FS1.  

SAN DIEGO PADRES vs. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES BETTING PREDICTION

The Padres find themselves in a must-win situation after losing 10-6 in a crucial Game 4 on Friday night. San Diego jumped out to an early 4-0 lead in the top of the first inning, but Philly had their bats working and the home crowd was roaring. The Padres offense finished the game with eight hits, two home runs, and went 2-3 with runners in scoring position. Every time San Diego made something happen on offense the Phillies would match it or better in the bottom half of the inning. Starting pitcher Mike Clevinger did not record an out before being pulled and gave up 3 hits and three runs. The other five pitchers used gave up a combined eight hits and seven runs in 8.0 innings. The right-hander Yu Darvish (Postseason: 2-1, 2.84 ERA) is expected to start Sunday.

 Philadelphia took Game 4 and are now one win away from the World Series. The Phillies are on fire right now and honestly look like they can give the Astros a run for their money. The offense finished Game 4 with 11 hits, four home runs, 10 total runs, and went 2-6 with runners in scoring position. Harper, Schwarber, and Hoskins were responsible for seven of the 10 runs and three of the four home runs. Starting pitcher Bailey Falter was just as bad as Clevinger, allowing three hits and four runs in 0.2 innings. The other six pitchers used gave up a combined five hits and two runs in 8.1 innings of work. Right-handed pitcher Zack Wheeler (Postseason: 1-1 1.40 ERA) will take the mound for Game 5.  

Game 4 made it crystal clear that this Phillies team has that “it” factor about them. They remind me of the Braves from last season in that they managed to get hot at the right time. Wheeler has been almost unstoppable in the postseason, and I would expect no different in front of the home crowd on Sunday. Darvish should keep the Padres in this game for a few innings but expect the Phillies to go on a run at some point. Backing the Phillies Moneyline here in Game 5. 

Score Prediction: Phillies 5, Padres 3
Best Bet: Phillies ML (-134)

SAN DIEGO PADRES vs. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES BETTING ODDS

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SAN DIEGO PADRES vs. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES BETTING RESOURCES

• Date: Sunday, October 23, 2022
• Matchup: NL West vs. NL East
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Location: Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
• Time-TV: 2:37 p.m. ET – FS1
• Expert Picks

SAN DIEGO PADRES BETTING ANALYSIS

The Padres are 6-5 SU and 6-5 ATS in these playoffs. The total has gone over in 10 of San Diego’s last 14 games. Going against this trend, the total has gone under in eight of their last 10 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia. San Diego is 1-5 in their past six games against the Phillies and 5-3 in their past eight games when playing as the underdog.  

San Diego’s offense did what they could in Game 4 with a couple of home runs and some small ball. Manny Machado went deep in the top of the first for his fourth time this postseason. Juan Soto took one yard as well in the top of the fifth for the first time in these playoffs. As a team the Padres have a postseason batting average of .230, on base percentage of .294, slugging percentage of .373 and have scored 47 runs.  

The Padres bullpen had their worst outing of the postseason in Game 4. The only positive to take away is that Robert Suarez and Josh Hader did not see any action and will be fresh on Sunday. Darvish has been their best pitcher throughout the season and will give them a chance in Game 5 but going against Wheeler is a tough ask. Darvish has pitched in three games this postseason and given up 16 hits and six runs in 19.0 innings of work.  

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES BETTING ANALYSIS

The Phillies are 8-2 SU and 8-2 ATS this postseason. The total has gone under in 13 of their last 18 games against San Diego and eight of their last 10 when playing at home against the Padres. Going against these trends, the total has gone over in six of their last seven at home. The Phillies are 5-1 in their past six games and 4-6 in their past 10 games against an NL West opponent.  

Philadelphia had their bats working in Game 4 with seven of their 11 batters recording at least one hit. Bryce Harper was great once again, going 2-4 at the plate with two hits and two RBI’s as well as continuing his postseason hitting streak to nine games. Rhys Hoskins had been struggling at the plate but found his bat Saturday night with two home runs and four RBIs. I would expect this offense to be cooking again in Game 5 with the momentum they have built up.  

The Phillies bullpen pitched well in Game 4. After Falter was pulled in the top of the first inning the remainder of the bullpen gave up just two runs. While nothing is given, I think Philadelphia can expect a better start from Wheeler in Game 5. Wheeler has been dominant this postseason and not allowed a single run in two of his three starts. In his most recent outing against the Padres in Game 1, Wheeler gave up one hit and zero runs in 7.0 innings.  

KEY PLAYERS

• SND: Manny Machado - 3B (Last Game: 2-4, HR, RBI, R)
• SND: Juan Soto - OF (Last Game: 1-4, HR, 2 RBI, R)
• PHI: Bryce Harper - DH (Last Game: 2-4, 2 2B, 2 RBI, R)
• PHI: Kyle Schwarber - OF (Last Game: 2-4, HR, RBI, R, 3 BB)

PROBABLE PITCHERS

• SND: Yu Darvish - RHP
• PHI: Zack Wheeler - RHP