Houston Astros vs. Philadelphia Phillies Game 5 Picks, Predictions, Odds

The Houston Astros will take on the Philadelphia Phillies Thursday for Game 5 of the World Series. First pitch is scheduled for 8:03 PM ET at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania and can be viewed on FOX. 

HOUSTON ASTROS vs. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES BETTING PREDICTION

The Astros managed to tie this series at two games apiece after a dominating 5-0 win on Wednesday night. This was a big win as it now ensures this series will head back to Houston for Game 6 and if necessary, Game 7 as well. The offense finished Game 4 with 10 hits, five runs, and went 3-8 with runners in scoring position. The bullpen was phenomenal and became the first team in MLB history to pitch a combined no hitter in the World Series. Starting pitcher Cristian Javier pitched 6.0 perfect innings while Abreu, Montero, and Pressly were all perfect in their 1.0 inning of work. The right-hander Justin Verlander (Postseason: 1-0, 7.20 ERA) is scheduled to start Game 5.  

Philadelphia lost for the first time at home this postseason in their Game 4 loss. After an impressive five home run performance in Game 3, the offense had no answers for Javier and the rest of the Astros bullpen. They finished the game with no hits, no runs, and did not have a single opportunity with runners in scoring position. I would expect them to bounce back in Game 5 as they have been averaging 7.0 runs per game at home in these playoffs. Starting pitcher Aaron Nola struggled for the second time this series, giving up seven hits and three runs in 4.0 innings. The other five pitchers used gave up a combined three hits and two runs in 5.0 innings. The right-hander Noah Syndergaard (Postseason: 0-0, 1.69 ERA) will start Thursday.  

While the Phillies do not have their strongest pitcher taking the mound, I like the value in them to take Game 5. Verlander has struggled throughout this postseason and continues to struggle in the World Series with a career record of 0-6. It must be a mental thing at this point and Philadelphia's home crowd will not be an ideal place for him to keep his mind calm. Backing the Phillies here as I think the offense is going to be fired up after a hitless performance. 

Score Prediction: Phillies 5, Astros 4
Best Bet: Phillies ML (+135)

HOUSTON ASTROS vs. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES BETTING ODDS

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HOUSTON ASTROS vs. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES BETTING RESOURCES

• Date: Thursday, November 3, 2022
• Matchup: AL West vs. NL East
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Location: Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
• Time-TV: 8:03 p.m. ET – FOX
• Expert Picks

HOUSTON ASTROS ANALYSIS

Houston is 9-2 SU and 7-4 ATS in these playoffs. The total has gone under in seven of their last 10 games. Following this trend, the total has gone under in five of their last seven when playing as the favorite. Houston is 17-4 in their last 21 road games and 3-10 in their last 13 games when playing on the road against the Phillies. The Astros have gone 11-2 in their last 13 games.  

The Astros offense bounced back nicely in Game 4 after a disappointing performance in Game 3. All five runs batted in Wednesday came via small ball which is a good sign for Houston considering they have relied on the long ball quite a bit this postseason. As a team in these playoffs the Astros have a batting average of .230, on base percentage of .300, slugging percentage of .388, and have scored 46 runs. Expect them to go after Syndergaard early to try and take the crowd out of it.  

Not much to say about Houston’s bullpen performance in Game 4 other than that they were perfect. To pitch like that against this Phillies team that loves to play at home is extremely impressive. Verlander will look to keep the bullpen rolling Thursday when he makes his second start of this series and fourth start of this postseason. He has not pitched well in two of his three outings, and I don't expect things to go well for him in Game 5 either. In his Game 1 start against the Astros, Verlander gave up six hits and five runs in 5.0 innings. 

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES BETTING ANALYSIS

Philadelphia is 13-3 SU and 11-4 ATS this postseason. The total has gone under in four of their last six games played on a Thursday. Following this trend, the total has gone under in six of their last nine games when playing an opponent from the AL West. The Phillies are 6-1 in their last seven games at home and 10-3 in their last 13 games when playing at home against Houston.  

The Phillies offense will need to quickly forget about Game 4 after not recording a single hit on Wednesday night. This has been one of the best hitting teams in these playoffs with a batting average of .219, on base percentage of .292, slugging percentage of .418, and have scored 72 runs. They will need to come to play in Game 5 as headed to Houston down 3-2 for the final two games would not be ideal. I do not expect Game 4’s struggles to carry over into Game 5, in fact quite the opposite. I think this offense comes out fired up and ready to go for the home crowd.  

Philadelphia’s bullpen will need to come up big Thursday for a crucial Game 5. Nola and company did not pitch well in Game 4, but what does it matter when your offense cannot find a way on base. Syndergaard will take the mound Thursday and is probably expected to go around 3.0 innings. In his 5.1 innings pitched this postseason he has given up three hits and one run. He won’t go the distance but has a chance to set the rest of the bullpen up for success. 

KEY PLAYERS

• PHI: Bryce Harper - DH (Last Game: 0-2, 2 K, BB, SB)
• PHI: Kyle Schwarber - OF (Last Game: 0-3, BB)
• HOU: Jose Altuve - IF (Last Game: 1-5, R)
• HOU: Alex Bregman - 3B (Last Game: 1-5, 2B, 2 RBI)

PROBABLE PITCHERS

• HOU: Justin Verlander - RHP
• PHI: Noah Syndergaard - RHP