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Game 3 – Celtics vs. Heat Picks, Predictions, Odds

Michael Crosson
Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert
5 minute read

NBA Playoffs Picks
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The NBA Playoffs resume on Sunday night with Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat. Coverage begins from the Kaseya Center in South Florida at 8:30 p.m. ET on TNT.

The Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games against Miami. (Getty)

BOSTON CELTICS vs. MIAMI HEAT BETTING PREDICTION

The Celtics went to halftime of Game 1 leading Miami by a score of 66-57, but ultimately, the Heat managed to rally back and win the opener by scoring 66 points on 55% from the field and 56% from downtown in the second half, while Boston scored just 50 points on 49% from the field and 31% from long-range in the final two stanzas.

In the postgame presser following Game 1, Joe Mazzulla alluded to the fact that there was no reason for Boston to sound the panic alarms quite yet. The Celtics outscored Miami in three-of-four quarters in Wednesday’s series opener, and then just happened to get blown out by 21 points in the third quarter. So, the fix seemed rather simple. All they needed to do was string together four quarters of solid basketball to get back over the hump in Game 2.

Well, that’s easier said than done isn’t it coach? A similar story unfolded in Game 2, as the Celtics went to the fourth quarter of Friday’s contest leading Miami by a score of 83-75, and to their credit, they carried that lead deep into the stanza, as they led 96-87 with just 6:37 left on the clock.

But then, Grant Williams decided to poke the bear a.k.a Jimmy Butler, and the rest was history, as the Heat outscored Boston 24-9 the rest of the way, led by nine points on 4-of-8 shooting from Butler in the final minutes, and Miami managed to escape with another come-from-behind victory, as well as a 2-0 series lead.

Not too long ago, Celtics’ bettors briefly went into panic mode, as Boston was abruptly pushed to the brink of elimination after falling behind 3-2 in the conference semis against Philly, and for a little while, the fate of their season legitimately hung in the balance, as they trailed by a score of 83-81 with roughly four minutes left on the clock in win-or-go-home Game 6, before suddenly flipping a switch and dominating the Sixers by a score of 124-91 for the remaining 52 minutes of the series; and let’s not forget, they also dropped a pair of games to the 41-41 Hawks in the round prior to that.

Well, here we go again with the Celtics hitting the road having already dug themselves a hole down 0-2. When everything is firing on all cylinders for this Boston’ team, they are pretty much unstoppable. The Celtics are the only squad in the entire league that ranks Top 3 in both offensive and defensive rating. However, the problem is, you never know which version of the Celtics is going to show up on any given night, or any given quarter, for that matter, and Jayson Tatum is no exception to that claim. 

The Celtics have clearly lacked mental toughness at times during these playoffs. They’ve posted a rather mediocre record of 8-7 since the start of the postseason, which includes a record of 0-5 in matchups decided by seven points or less, and the Tatum-Brown duo continues to disappear in big moments, highlighted by Boston’s two superstars combining for just 20 points on 4-of-15 shooting in the fourth quarters of Games 1 and 2 in this series.

Make no mistake about it, the fact that Miami has reached this point certainly isn’t a fluke. The numbers don’t always add up on the statsheet, but the Heat fight tooth-and-nail in every single contest, and they fear absolutely nobody. They play great defense, they move the ball well on offense, Erik Spoelstra may very well be the best coach in the league, and Jimmy Butler is capable of being the best player on the floor on any given night.

That said, the Celtics are still the better team in this series on paper, and it always seems like right when we think they are officially down for the count, they get back on their feet and put on a “We’re The Best Team in Basketball” type of performance. 

Can they come all the way back and win the series? The jury is still out on that question. Personally, I don’t trust them to win four-of-five games under any set of circumstances, but Boston is now 4-5 at home and 4-2 on the road since the start of the playoffs, and while playing on the road is certainly never an advantage in the NBA, clearly, this Celtics’ squad is more than comfortable playing away from their home arena. 

In last year’s Eastern Conference Finals between these teams, the road team won five-of-seven matchups, which included the C’s winning Games 2, 5, and 7 on the road in Miami. It’s a much different situation this time around, but a lot of the same DNA appears to remain. Lay the short number with Boston in Game 3.

Score Prediction: Celtics 116, Heat 105
Best Bet: Celtics -3 (-110)

BOS @ MIA Odds

  • Full Game
  • 1H
  • 1Q
  • 2Q
  • 3Q
  • 4Q
  • Spread
  • Total
  • Moneyline
Final
Boston Celtics 541 Celtics
-2 -110 -3.5 -110 -3.5 -110 -3.5 -115 -2.5 -122 N/A -4.5 -110  
Miami Heat 542 Heat
+2 -110 +3.5 -110 +3.5 -110 +3.5 -105 +2.5 even N/A +4.5 -111  
Final
Boston Celtics 541 Celtics
o213 -110 o104.5 -110 o104.5 -110 o104.5 -110 o104.5 -110 N/A o214.5 -110  
Miami Heat 542 Heat
u213 -110 u104.5 -110 u104.5 -110 u104.5 -110 u104.5 -110 N/A u214.5 -110  
Final
Boston Celtics 541 Celtics
-126 -210 -190 -190 -194 N/A -180  
Miami Heat 542 Heat
+108 +170 +160 +158 +154 N/A +150  
Final
Boston Celtics 541 Celtics
-2 -110 -2.5 +105 -2 -110 -1.5 -125 -1.5 -115 N/A -4.5 -110  
Miami Heat 542 Heat
+2 -110 +2.5 -130 +2 -110 +1.5 -105 +1.5 -105 N/A +4.5 -111  
Final
Boston Celtics 541 Celtics
o213 -110 o51.5 -130 o52.5 -110 o52.5 -115 o52.5 -108 N/A o214.5 -110  
Miami Heat 542 Heat
u213 -110 u51.5 +105 u52.5 -110 u52.5 -115 u52.5 -118 N/A u214.5 -110  
Final
Boston Celtics 541 Celtics
-126 -165 -155 -170 -150 N/A -180  
Miami Heat 542 Heat
+108 +130 +135 +140 +122 N/A +150  
Final
Boston Celtics 541 Celtics
-2 -110 N/A -1.5 -110 -1.5 -115 -0.5 -122 N/A -4.5 -110  
Miami Heat 542 Heat
+2 -110 N/A +1.5 -110 +1.5 -115 +0.5 even N/A +4.5 -111  
Final
Boston Celtics 541 Celtics
o213 -110 N/A o52.5 -105 o52.5 -110 o52.5 -111 N/A o214.5 -110  
Miami Heat 542 Heat
u213 -110 N/A u52.5 -115 u52.5 -120 u52.5 -115 N/A u214.5 -110  
Final
Boston Celtics 541 Celtics
-126 N/A -150 N/A -140 N/A -180  
Miami Heat 542 Heat
+108 N/A +130 N/A +114 N/A +150  
Final
Boston Celtics 541 Celtics
-2 -110 N/A -0.5 -115 -1.5 +105 -0.5 -122 N/A -4.5 -110  
Miami Heat 542 Heat
+2 -110 N/A +0.5 -105 +1.5 -135 +0.5 even N/A +4.5 -111  
Final
Boston Celtics 541 Celtics
o213 -110 N/A o55.5 -105 N/A o54.5 -115 N/A o214.5 -110  
Miami Heat 542 Heat
u213 -110 N/A u55.5 -115 N/A u54.5 -111 N/A u214.5 -110  
Final
Boston Celtics 541 Celtics
-126 N/A -125 N/A -138 N/A -180  
Miami Heat 542 Heat
+108 N/A +105 N/A +112 N/A +150  
Final
Boston Celtics 541 Celtics
-2 -110 N/A +0.5 -120 -1.5 +120 -0.5 -110 N/A -4.5 -110  
Miami Heat 542 Heat
+2 -110 N/A -0.5 even +1.5 -150 +0.5 -110 N/A +4.5 -111  
Final
Boston Celtics 541 Celtics
o213 -110 N/A o54.5 -105 N/A o54.5 -102 N/A o214.5 -110  
Miami Heat 542 Heat
u213 -110 N/A u54.5 -115 N/A u54.5 -125 N/A u214.5 -110  
Final
Boston Celtics 541 Celtics
-126 N/A -110 N/A -128 N/A -180  
Miami Heat 542 Heat
+108 N/A -110 N/A +104 N/A +150  

BOSTON CELTICS vs. MIAMI HEAT BETTING RESOURCES

Date: Sunday, May 21, 2023
Venue: Kaseya Center
Location: Miami, Florida
TV-Time: TNT, 8:30 p.m. ET
Matchup
Expert Picks

NBA Finals Betting Odds

BOSTON CELTICS vs. MIAMI HEAT BETTING STATS

Boston Celtics
SU: 65-32
ATS: 53-43-1
O/U: 53-43-1
PPG: 117.9
OPPG: 111.4

Miami Heat
SU: 55-42
ATS: 42-53
O/U: 51-44
PPG: 109.5
OPPG: 109.8

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS), Over-Under (O/U)
Points Per Game (PPG), Opponents Points Per Game (OPPG)

The total has gone OVER in 10 of Boston's last 12 road games. (Getty)

BOSTON CELTICS vs. MIAMI HEAT BETTING TRENDS

  • The Celtics are 2-4 ATS in their last six games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 10 of Boston's last 13 games.
  • The Celtics are 2-4 SU in their last six games.
  • The Heat are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of Miami's last five games.
  • The Heat are 5-1 SU in their last six games.
  • The Heat are 6-0 SU in their last six home games.
  • The Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games against Boston.
  • The Celtics are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against Miami.
  • The Celtics are 1-4 SU in their last five games against Miami.
  • The total has gone OVER in 10 of Boston's last 12 road games.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of Miami's last five matchups against Boston.

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson
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