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Game 4 – Celtics vs. Heat Picks, Predictions, Odds

Michael Crosson
Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert
4 minute read

NBA Playoffs Picks
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The NBA Playoffs resume on Tuesday night with Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat. Coverage begins from the Kaseya Center in South Florida at 8:30 p.m. ET on TNT.

The Celtics are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against Miami. (Getty)

BOSTON CELTICS vs. MIAMI HEAT BETTING PREDICTION

In hindsight, it’s pretty crazy to think about how close Miami was to getting eliminated by Chicago in the Play-In Tournament – but here we are, with the Heat standing just one win away from sweeping Boston and clinching an NBA FInals berth.

In the postgame presser following the series opener, Celtics’ head coach Joe Mazzulla alluded to the fact that there was no need to panic in the aftermath of his team’s home loss in Game 1 because they outscored Miami in three-of-four quarters in the event, which at the time, seemed stubborn, but a somewhat reassuring response, nonetheless.

So, the fix seemed rather simple. All they needed to do was string together four quarters of solid basketball to get back over the hump in the matchups to come. However, that’s clearly much easier said than done for this Boston’ team, as a very similar story unfolded again in Game 2, and then they proceeded to completely fall off the wagon in Game 3.

In Game 2, the Celtics entered the fourth quarter of leading Miami by a score of 83-75, and to their credit, they carried that lead deep into the final stanza, as they led 96-87 with just 6:37 left on the clock. But after some late-game theatrics between Jimmy Butler and Grant Williams, the Heat managed to finish the game on a triumphant 24-9 run and escape with a second straight come-from-behind victory, as well as a 2-0 series lead.

In Game 3, though, Boston never really had much of a lead to choke away to begin with, as the Celtics shot just 39% from the field and 26% from long-range in the most recent meeting between these teams, and they never led after the 5:04 mark of the first quarter on the way to an ugly 128-102 loss. 

But to be fair, even if the Celtics brought their A-Game in Sunday’s contest, it still would’ve been quite a challenge to stand toe-to-toe and trade punches with a Heat’ squad shooting 57% from the floor and 54% from downtown at their home arena.

Fortunately for Boston, the Heat don’t shoot like that often, But make no mistake about it, the fact that Miami has reached this point certainly isn’t a fluke. The Heat leave it all on the floor in every single contest, and they fear absolutely nobody. They play great defense, they move the ball well on offense, Erik Spoelstra may very well be the best coach in the league, and Jimmy Butler is capable of being the best player on the floor on any given night.

And so far, we’ve seen them chew up and spit out a Boston’ squad that appears to be the total opposite in many ways, the Celtics have clearly lacked mental toughness during these playoffs. They’ve posted a rather mediocre record of 8-8 since the start of the postseason, which includes a record of 0-5 in matchups decided by seven points or less. And the Tatum-Brown duo continues to disappear in big moments, highlighted by Boston’s two superstars combining for just 20 points on 4-of-15 shooting in the fourth quarters of Games 1-3 in this series.

At this point, it’s only a matter of time before the Heat close out this series and punch their ticket to the finals. No team has ever blown a 3-0 lead in the playoffs, and I highly doubt that the first to do so will be a squad coached by Spoelstra.

But for the time being, we’ll probably see both offenses drift back towards their respective baseline; and if the last two games have been any indication of the current vibe between these teams, this series might get a little bit chippy down the stretch. Expect a strong physical defensive effort from both squads in this one. Take the ‘under’ in Game 4.

Score Prediction: Heat 106, Celtics 103
Best Bet: Under 216 (-110)

BOS @ MIA Odds

  • Full Game
  • 1H
  • 1Q
  • 2Q
  • 3Q
  • 4Q
  • Spread
  • Total
  • Moneyline
Final
Boston Celtics 545 Celtics
+1.5 -110 -0.5 -110 -0.5 -110 PK -110 +0.5 -114 N/A +1.5 -110  
Miami Heat 546 Heat
-1.5 -110 +0.5 -110 +0.5 -110 PK -110 -0.5 -106 N/A -1.5 -110  
Final
Boston Celtics 545 Celtics
o214.5 -110 o105.5 -115 o106 -110 o106.5 -110 o106.5 -112 N/A o216.5 -110  
Miami Heat 546 Heat
u214.5 -110 u105.5 -105 u106 -110 u106.5 -110 u106.5 -110 N/A u216.5 -110  
Final
Boston Celtics 545 Celtics
even -120 -115 -110 -106 N/A even  
Miami Heat 546 Heat
-118 even -105 -110 -114 N/A -120  
Final
Boston Celtics 545 Celtics
+1.5 -110 -0.5 -110 -0.5 -105 PK -125 -0.5 -102 N/A +1.5 -110  
Miami Heat 546 Heat
-1.5 -110 +0.5 -110 +0.5 -115 PK -105 +0.5 -120 N/A -1.5 -110  
Final
Boston Celtics 545 Celtics
o214.5 -110 o53.5 -115 o53.5 -110 o53.5 -115 o53.5 -104 N/A o216.5 -110  
Miami Heat 546 Heat
u214.5 -110 u53.5 -105 u53.5 -110 u53.5 -115 u53.5 -122 N/A u216.5 -110  
Final
Boston Celtics 545 Celtics
even -130 -115 -120 -110 N/A even  
Miami Heat 546 Heat
-118 even -105 -110 -110 N/A -120  
Final
Boston Celtics 545 Celtics
+1.5 -110 N/A +0.5 -120 +1.5 -150 +0.5 -114 N/A +1.5 -110  
Miami Heat 546 Heat
-1.5 -110 N/A -0.5 even -1.5 +120 -0.5 -106 N/A -1.5 -110  
Final
Boston Celtics 545 Celtics
o214.5 -110 N/A o52.5 -115 o53.5 -110 o53.5 -106 N/A o216.5 -110  
Miami Heat 546 Heat
u214.5 -110 N/A u52.5 -105 u53.5 -120 u53.5 -120 N/A u216.5 -110  
Final
Boston Celtics 545 Celtics
even N/A -105 N/A -104 N/A even  
Miami Heat 546 Heat
-118 N/A -115 N/A -118 N/A -120  
Final
Boston Celtics 545 Celtics
+1.5 -110 N/A +0.5 -115 +1.5 -145 +0.5 -118 N/A +1.5 -110  
Miami Heat 546 Heat
-1.5 -110 N/A -0.5 -105 -1.5 +115 -0.5 -104 N/A -1.5 -110  
Final
Boston Celtics 545 Celtics
o214.5 -110 N/A o54.5 -115 N/A o54.5 -122 N/A o216.5 -110  
Miami Heat 546 Heat
u214.5 -110 N/A u54.5 -105 N/A u54.5 -104 N/A u216.5 -110  
Final
Boston Celtics 545 Celtics
even N/A even N/A -106 N/A even  
Miami Heat 546 Heat
-118 N/A -120 N/A -114 N/A -120  
Final
Boston Celtics 545 Celtics
+1.5 -110 N/A +0.5 -115 +1.5 -140 -0.5 even N/A +1.5 -110  
Miami Heat 546 Heat
-1.5 -110 N/A -0.5 -105 -1.5 +110 +0.5 -122 N/A -1.5 -110  
Final
Boston Celtics 545 Celtics
o214.5 -110 N/A o55.5 even N/A o54.5 -104 N/A o216.5 -110  
Miami Heat 546 Heat
u214.5 -110 N/A u55.5 -120 N/A u54.5 -120 N/A u216.5 -110  
Final
Boston Celtics 545 Celtics
even N/A -105 N/A -110 N/A even  
Miami Heat 546 Heat
-118 N/A -115 N/A -110 N/A -120  

BOSTON CELTICS vs. MIAMI HEAT BETTING RESOURCES

Date: Tuesday, May 23, 2023
Venue: Kaseya Center
Location: Miami, Florida
TV-Time: TNT, 8:30 p.m. ET
Matchup
Expert Picks

NBA Finals Betting Odds

BOSTON CELTICS vs. MIAMI HEAT BETTING STATS

Boston Celtics
SU: 65-33
ATS: 53-44-1
O/U: 54-43-1
PPG: 117.9
OPPG: 111.4

Miami Heat
SU: 56-42
ATS: 43-53
O/U: 52-44
PPG: 109.5
OPPG: 109.8

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS), Over-Under (O/U)
Points Per Game (PPG), Opponents Points Per Game (OPPG)

The Heat are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games. (Getty)

BOSTON CELTICS vs. MIAMI HEAT BETTING TRENDS

  • The Celtics are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 11 of Boston's last 14 games.
  • The Celtics are 2-5 SU in their last seven games.
  • The Heat are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of Miami's last six games.
  • The Heat are 6-1 SU in their last seven games.
  • The Heat are 7-0 SU in their last seven home games.
  • The Heat are 2-4 ATS in their last six home games against Boston.
  • The Celtics are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against Miami.
  • The Celtics are 1-5 SU in their last six games against Miami.
  • The total has gone OVER in 11 of Boston's last 13 road games.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of Miami's last six matchups against Boston.

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson
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