Game 3 – Nuggets vs. Suns Picks, Predictions, Odds

Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert

3 minute read

First Round | Second Round
Eastern Conference | Western Conference
NBA Championship Betting Trends

The NBA Playoffs resume on Friday night with a pivotal Game 3 clash in the Western Conference between the Denver Nuggets and Phoenix Suns. Coverage begins from the Footprint Center in Phoenix at 10:00 p.m. ET on ESPN.

DENVER NUGGETS vs. PHOENIX SUNS BETTING PREDICTION

Several question marks surrounded this Suns’ squad heading into the second round of the playoffs, as Kevin Durant went down with an injury soon after being acquired by Phoenix, keeping him sidelined until the final homestretch of the regular season, in turn, giving bettors a very small sample size to work with when it comes to evaluating the construction of this roster since trading for Durant.

However, in the eight regular season contests that KD participated in following the acquisition, plus their five-game set against L. A. in the first round, the Suns posted a near perfect 12-1 record alongside an offensive rating of 122 ORtg, which would pace the entire league by a comfortable margin if they managed to maintain that same level of efficiency; and don’t forget, Phoenix also ranks Top 10 in defensive rating as well (113 DRtg). 

While on the other hand, when it comes to Denver, what you see is what you get for the most part. The Nuggets earned the top seed in the West by posting a record of 53-29, however, they certainly didn’t reach those heights by playing well away from their home arena, highlighted by Denver posting records of 19-23 on the road and 34-7 at home during the regular season.

At home, the Nuggets easily stack up with the top teams in basketball, ranked 2nd in offensive rating and 6th in defensive rating on their homefloor (120 ORtg, 110 DRtg), which fortunately, is the version of this Denver’ team that showed up for Games 1 of 2 in this series (119 ORtg, 104 DRtg). 

However, on the other side of that same coin, it’s  a completely different story for them on the road, highlighted by the Nuggets ranking 14th in offensive rating and 21st in defensive rating away from their home arena (114 ORtg, 117 DRtg).

The fact of the matter is, good teams win at home, great teams win on the road; and quite frankly, the Nuggets have been tough to stomach on the road all year, and their struggles continued in their Game 4 loss to Minnesota in the opening round of the playoffs.

In the first two matchups of this series, Phoenix appeared to be totally outmatched, as the Nuggets scored 111 PPG on 48% FG and 36% 3P in a pair of home wins to open, while the Suns scored just 97 PPG 45% FG and 24% 3P. At this point and time, though, Denver still strikes me as a very good team; not a great one. 

The Suns clearly still have some kinks to iron out, their offense has looked disjointed early in this series, and DeAndre Ayton hasn’t had much of an answer for Jokic defensively. It may be a bit difficult to read the tea leaves at the moment, especially after seeing Phoenix post a miserable offensive rating of 104 in Games 1 and 2, but the Nuggets have stunk on the road all year, so we’ll probably see the pendulum swing the other way as this series heads to Phoenix on Friday night. Lay the points with the Suns in Game 3.

Score Prediction: Suns 114, Nuggets 106
Best Bet: Suns -4 (-110)

Take Phoenix!

BET NOW!

DENVER NUGGETS vs. PHOENIX SUNS BETTING ODDS

DENVER NUGGETS vs. PHOENIX SUNS BETTING RESOURCES

Date: Friday, May 5, 2023
Venue: Footprint Center
Location: Phoenix, Arizona
TV-Time: ESPN, 10:00 p.m. ET
Matchup
Expert Picks

NBA Finals Betting Odds

DENVER NUGGETS vs. PHOENIX SUNS BETTING STATS

Denver Nuggets
SU: 59-30
ATS: 50-39
O/U: 42-47
PPG: 115.8
OPPG: 112.5

Phoenix Suns
SU: 49-40
ATS: 45-43-1
O/U: 47-42
PPG: 113.6
OPPG: 111.6

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS), Over-Under (O/U)
Points Per Game (PPG), Opponents Points Per Game (OPPG)

DENVER NUGGETS vs. PHOENIX SUNS BETTING TRENDS

• The Nuggets are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Denver's last 20 games.
• The Nuggets are 7-1 SU in their last eight games.
• The Suns are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
• The total has gone OVER in seven of Phoenix's last ten games.
• The Suns are 11-5 SU in their last 16 games.
• The total has gone OVER in four of Phoenix's last five home games.
• The Suns are 5-1 SU in their last six home games against Denver.
• The Nuggets are 5-0 ATS in their last five games against Phoenix.
• The Nuggets are 4-2 SU in their last six games against Phoenix.
• The Nuggets are 1-5 SU in their last six road games.

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson