Books adjust odds after Draymond Green suspension
As if the Golden State Warriors aren't in enough trouble, down 2-0 against the Sacramento Kings, they're now shorthanded to boot. Tuesday night, the NBA suspended fiery forward Draymond Green for Thursday's Game 3.
The discipline stemmed from a dust-up with the Kings' Domantas Sabonis, capped by Green stepping on Sabonis during Monday's Game 2. That suspension rightly had an immediate effect on Game 3 odds.
BetMGM sports trader Halvor Egeland and PointsBet USA media analytics manager Wyatt Yearout discuss the impact on Kings vs Warriors Game 3 odds and action.
NBA Playoff Odds
Stepping Out
Late Monday night, after the Kings' 114-106 win, oddsmakers came out of the gate very much in favor of the Warriors. Part of the thought process: the reigning champs are in a must-win situation for Game 3.
"The Warriors were originally favored by 7.5 before the Draymond suspension. After the news came out [Tuesday night], we immediately moved a point to 6.5, before it made it’s way to 5.5 overnight," Egeland said Wednesday afternoon. "I don’t anticipate that moving much more, unless Sabonis is actually injured."
If Sabonis misses Game 3, obviously the line would swing toward Golden State. But Egeland is a bit suspicious of Sabonis being listed as questionable.
"The X-rays and injury distinction felt a little performative to me, to force the league’s hand in the Draymond suspension," Egeland said.
Action Reaction
At PointsBet USA, Golden State opened -7 for Game 3 and climbed to -7.5 Tuesday afternoon. But the late Tuesday night news of Green's penalty sent the Warriors down to -6. Even before that announcement, though, spread bettors were loving the underdog.
"I wouldn't say there was a huge change in action based on the news," Yearout said Wednesday afternoon. "As of now, the spread is heavily on the Kings, with 77% of bets and 88% of handle on Sacramento. But the moneyline is the opposite, with 72% of bets and 76% of handle on the Warriors."
The scenario at BetMGM is a bit different.
"We’re pretty balanced at this point, now that the market has settled," Egeland said. "We took an influx of action on the Kings after the suspension news was released, but that died down [Wednesday] morning. I think the Warriors win/Kings cover scenario will likely end up being the best result for us.
"But we’d love for this series to go seven games. This has just been great basketball to watch, and now with the added drama, I only anticipate the handle will keep increasing on these games."
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