Could You Score on an NBA Pro? Fans Think So
Featured Image Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images
Picture this: you, a basketball, a full court, and an NBA player staring you down. How many buckets could you realistically sink in a game of pick-up? According to a new survey of 3,156 NBA fans, a surprising 65% believe they could score at least once against the average professional.
In fact, 6% of fans think they’d drop eight or more buckets — which either makes them delusionally confident or ready for an NBA call-up.
We asked the following questions:
- • In a game of pick-up basketball, how many buckets do you think you could score against the average pro?
- • How do you think your three-point shot compares to that of the average pro?
Key Takeaways:
- • 65% of NBA fans believe they could score at least one bucket against the average pro
- • Heat fans top the rankings, with 85.5% confident they’d score on a pro.
- • 34% of NBA fans believe their 3-point shot is around or above the same level as a pro
- • Raptors fans lead in long-range confidence, with 84.6% backing their shot vs a pro
Overall NBA Fan Responses:
| Answer Option | In % |
| 0 (None) | 35% |
| 1 | 15% |
| 2 | 13% |
| 3 | 10% |
| 4 | 10% |
| 5 | 6% |
| 6 | 4% |
| 7 | 2% |
| 8 or more | 6% |
At Least One Bucket by Fan Base
Miami Heat fans lead the league in confidence with a staggering 85.5% believing they’d score at least once, followed closely by Memphis Grizzlies, Clippers, Hawks, and Rockets fans. On the other end of the court, Trail Blazers and Celtics fans are a little more modest, just 54.8% and 56.7% back themselves to hit the scoreboard.
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The Three-Point Debate: Fans vs. Pros
It’s one thing to get a lucky lay-up, but draining a three over an NBA defender? That’s where reality tends to set in. Two-thirds of NBA fans admit their three-point shot is worse than the average pro’s, but 34% believe they’re almost as good, just as good, or even better.
| Answer Option | In % |
| Worse | 66% |
| Almost as good | 20% |
| The same | 5% |
| Better | 9% |
Top Three-Point Confidence Rankings
Toronto Raptors fans take the championship belt here — a whopping 84.6% believe their shot is at least almost as good as a pro’s. The New Orleans Pelicans and Atlanta Hawks also see themselves as snipers, with 76.5% and 67.3% backing their range
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What This Says About NBA Fandom
The results tell us that while most fans have a healthy respect for professional skill levels, there’s a massive pocket of pure optimism — and maybe a dash of fantasy league fever. The belief that you could go toe-to-toe with a 6’7” athlete who trains 8 hours a day says less about reality and more about the competitive spirit that fuels NBA culture.
Methodology
The survey was commissioned by VegasInsider, and was conducted by One8Y between July 7–10, 2025, with a nationally representative sample of 3,156 NBA fans across the U.S.
You can find the data set in full here.
See the full fan base breakdown per question below:
In a game of pick-up basketball, how many buckets do you think you could score against the average pro?
| Fan Base | 0 (None) | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 or more |
| Boston Celtics | 43% | 13% | 11% | 9% | 9% | 6% | 0% | 3% | 6% |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 36% | 10% | 13% | 7% | 5% | 7% | 2% | 7% | 15% |
| Houston Rockets | 16% | 18% | 5% | 13% | 13% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 13% |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 15% | 12% | 8% | 14% | 13% | 13% | 7% | 5% | 13% |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 32% | 14% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 7% |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 34% | 10% | 14% | 12% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 16% |
| Orlando Magic | 25% | 11% | 18% | 11% | 14% | 9% | 0% | 5% | 7% |
| Atlanta Hawks | 15% | 12% | 6% | 12% | 19% | 8% | 6% | 6% | 17% |
| Denver Nuggets | 28% | 12% | 7% | 10% | 14% | 10% | 2% | 2% | 16% |
| Indiana Pacers | 32% | 9% | 11% | 14% | 7% | 5% | 2% | 5% | 16% |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 15% | 8% | 13% | 17% | 15% | 6% | 8% | 4% | 15% |
| New York Knicks | 26% | 10% | 14% | 14% | 12% | 8% | 5% | 6% | 6% |
| Dallas Mavericks | 31% | 18% | 7% | 7% | 16% | 8% | 2% | 4% | 6% |
| Golden State Warriors | 28% | 11% | 7% | 15% | 15% | 7% | 6% | 1% | 10% |
| Miami Heat | 14% | 10% | 14% | 17% | 16% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 12% |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 39% | 10% | 4% | 14% | 4% | 8% | 4% | 4% | 14% |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 33% | 11% | 7% | 6% | 11% | 15% | 0% | 0% | 17% |
| Toronto Raptors | 19% | 0% | 4% | 4% | 12% | 19% | 8% | 8% | 27% |
| Brooklyn Nets | 20% | 13% | 7% | 11% | 13% | 9% | 9% | 2% | 16% |
| Charlotte Hornets | 21% | 21% | 7% | 10% | 14% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 14% |
| Detroit Pistons | 38% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 9% | 11% |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 45% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 6% | 6% | 0% | 6% | 23% |
| Sacramento Kings | 27% | 18% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 18% | 5% | 0% | 18% |
| San Antonio Spurs | 24% | 14% | 8% | 10% | 14% | 6% | 10% | 2% | 14% |
| Chicago Bulls | 35% | 11% | 12% | 14% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 5% | 7% |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 18% | 0% | 12% | 15% | 18% | 6% | 15% | 9% | 9% |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 25% | 17% | 13% | 9% | 12% | 6% | 10% | 1% | 7% |
| Phoenix Suns | 30% | 7% | 9% | 14% | 2% | 16% | 7% | 5% | 11% |
| Utah Jazz | 23% | 3% | 7% | 3% | 20% | 20% | 10% | 0% | 13% |
| Washington Wizards | 28% | 2% | 15% | 6% | 4% | 17% | 6% | 2% | 19% |
How do you think your three point shot compares to that of the average pro?
| Fan Base | Worse | Almost as good | The same | Better |
| Boston Celtics | 71% | 22% | 2% | 6% |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 54% | 21% | 3% | 21% |
| Houston Rockets | 49% | 24% | 7% | 20% |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 36% | 26% | 7% | 31% |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 63% | 22% | 6% | 9% |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 62% | 19% | 5% | 14% |
| Orlando Magic | 52% | 18% | 9% | 20% |
| Atlanta Hawks | 33% | 29% | 6% | 33% |
| Denver Nuggets | 48% | 26% | 3% | 22% |
| Indiana Pacers | 57% | 18% | 7% | 18% |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 40% | 23% | 8% | 29% |
| New York Knicks | 52% | 24% | 4% | 20% |
| Dallas Mavericks | 62% | 20% | 5% | 13% |
| Golden State Warriors | 64% | 22% | 5% | 9% |
| Miami Heat | 39% | 34% | 16% | 12% |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 65% | 8% | 6% | 22% |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 57% | 15% | 7% | 20% |
| Toronto Raptors | 15% | 27% | 8% | 50% |
| Brooklyn Nets | 38% | 33% | 7% | 22% |
| Charlotte Hornets | 59% | 14% | 7% | 21% |
| Detroit Pistons | 62% | 13% | 11% | 13% |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 58% | 16% | 3% | 23% |
| Sacramento Kings | 50% | 9% | 14% | 27% |
| San Antonio Spurs | 47% | 22% | 14% | 18% |
| Chicago Bulls | 61% | 22% | 5% | 12% |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 24% | 24% | 12% | 41% |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 64% | 17% | 6% | 13% |
| Phoenix Suns | 45% | 18% | 7% | 30% |
| Utah Jazz | 33% | 27% | 3% | 37% |
| Washington Wizards | 36% | 28% | 4% | 32% |
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