Game 3 – Warriors vs. Lakers Picks, Predictions, Odds

Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert

4 minute read

First Round | Second Round
Eastern Conference | Western Conference
NBA Championship Betting Trends

The NBA Western Conference Semifinals resume on Saturday night with a pivotal Game 3 showdown between the Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers. Coverage begins from Crypto.com Arena in L. A. at 8:30 p.m. ET on ABC.

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS vs. LOS ANGELES LAKERS BETTING PREDICTION

The first two matchups of this series was a tale of two very different contests. In Game 1, the Warriors were stunned on their homefloor, as Golden State managed to cut the Lakers’ lead to just three points with just 17 seconds left in the fourth quarter, but with their fate on the line in the final moments, Jordan Poole came up empty on a potential game-tying three-point attempt, and Los Angeles escaped with a victory on the heels of a monster 30-point, 20-rebound performance from Anthony Davis. 

In Game 2, however, Davis didn’t exactly bring his A-game, and as a result. L. A.’s offensive numbers took an immediate nosedive, as Davis scored just 11 points on 5-of-11 from the field in an ugly 127-100 loss on Thursday night, a contest in which the Lakers shot just 43% FG and 29% 3P.

The Lakers’ blowout loss in Game 2 can be attributed to a variety of things, though, not just the sudden disappearance of AD. There’s no denying the fact that the Lakers had a bad night, but even if they played to their maximum potential, there’s still a good chance that they would’ve come up short in a contest that the Warriors shot 51% FG and 50% 3P, as Klay Thompson led the way with 30 points on 11-of-18 from the floor.

In Game 1, The Lakers played incredibly physical and got to the line for 29 free throw attempts, which was 23 more FT attempts than the Warriors shot in the contest (6); and thanks to their enormous advantage in that department, the Lakers managed to overcome the fact that they shot just 6-of-25 from three-point range in the contest, and still win the game.

In Game 2, though, Los Angeles took its foot off the gas a bit and settled for far more long-range opportunities, as the Lakers jacked up nine more three-point attempts than they did in Game 1, and shot 12 less free throws, leading to an ugly result.

The Warriors posted records of 33-8 at home and 11-30 on the road during the regular season, while ranking 5th and 23rd in net rating at each location respectively. Can they steal a win or two in this series on the road? Sure, they won a pair of road games in the previous round against Sacramento, but I wouldn't count on it.

Aside from the thrill of having two all-time great players meet in the playoffs in LeBron James and Steph Curry, the main reason that this series is so fascinating is the fact that these teams are polar opposites. The Warriors rank 1st in three-point attempts per game, the Lakers rank 1st in free throw attempts per game; and on the flip side, the Warriors rank 30th in free throw attempts per game, while the Lakers rank 25th in three-point percentage.

These teams find comfort in very different styles of play, and when that’s the case, homecourt becomes a crucial factor as it often helps dictate the flow of the game and puts some extra pressure on the officials. The Lakers averaged 27 free throw attempts per game during the regular season, and they shot just 17 in Game 2.

So, there’s a good chance that the Lakers' FT number returns to baseline and makes the difference in Saturday’s contest against a Warriors’ squad that ranks 28th in defensive rating on the road. Get ready for a gazillion foul shots. Lay the points with L. A. in Game 3.

Score Prediction: Lakers 116, Warriors 109
Best Bet: Lakers -3 (-110)

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GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS vs. LOS ANGELES LAKERS BETTING ODDS

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS vs. LOS ANGELES LAKERS BETTING RESOURCES

Date: Saturday, May 6, 2023
Venue: Crypto.com Arena
Location: Los Angeles, California
TV-Time: ABC, 8:30 p.m. ET
Matchup
Expert Picks

NBA Finals Betting Odds

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS vs. LOS ANGELES LAKERS BETTING STATS

Golden State Warriors
SU: 49-42
ATS: 44-47
O/U: 51-40
PPG: 118.9
OPPG: 117.1

Los Angeles Lakers
SU: 49-42
ATS: 45-44-1
O/U: 47-42-1
PPG: 117.2
OPPG: 116.6

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS), Over-Under (O/U)
Points Per Game (PPG), Opponents Points Per Game (OPPG)

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS vs. LOS ANGELES LAKERS BETTING TRENDS

• The total has gone OVER in four of Golden State's last six games.
• The Warriors are 5-2 SU in their last seven games.
• The Lakers are 4-2 ATS in their last six games.
• The total has gone OVER in 12 of the Lakers' last 17 games.
• The Lakers are 15-5 SU in their last 20 games.
• The total has gone OVER in seven of the Lakers' last ten matchups against Golden State.
• The Lakers are 6-0 SU in their last six home games.
• The Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last five matchups against the Lakers.
• The Warriors are 1-4 SU in their last five matchups against the Lakers.
• The Warriors are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 road games.
• The Warriors are 1-5 SU in their last six road games against the Lakers.

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson