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Heat vs Celtics Game 1 Picks, Odds | NBA Playoffs Prediction

Michael Crosson
Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert
3 minute read
Heat vs Celtics Game 1 Picks, Odds | NBA Playoffs Prediction

The 2024 NBA Playoffs resume with another loaded 4-game slate this Sunday -- and the first matchup of the day we'll preview is Heat vs Celtics Game 1, which is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. ET on ABC.

The Celtics are huge 14-point favorites on the spread in Sunday's contest, while the total is set at over/under 208.5 total points at DraftKings.

Here's everything you need to know about Heat vs Celtics -- the latest betting odds, as well as our expert picks and prediction for the NBA Playoffs on Sunday, April 21.

Heat vs Celtics Odds

MIA @ BOS Odds

  • Full Game
  • 1H
  • 1Q
  • 2Q
  • 3Q
  • 4Q
  • Spread
  • Total
  • Moneyline
Final
Miami Heat 581 Heat
+13.5 -110 +8.5 -110 +8.5 -110 +8.5 -110 +9.5 -115 +8.5 -108 +8.5 -115 +14.5 -112  
Boston Celtics 582 Celtics
-13.5 -110 -8.5 -110 -8.5 -110 -8.5 -110 -9.5 -105 -8.5 -118 -8.5 -115 -14.5 -108  
Final
Miami Heat 581 Heat
o209 -110 o107.5 -110 N/A o107.5 -112 o107.5 -112 o107.5 -109 o107.5 -115 o210 -112  
Boston Celtics 582 Celtics
u209 -110 u107.5 -110 N/A u107.5 -108 u107.5 -108 u107.5 -120 u107.5 -115 u210 -108  
Final
Miami Heat 581 Heat
+750 N/A +375 +380 +390 +475 N/A +730  
Boston Celtics 582 Celtics
-1200 N/A -500 -500 -550 -770 N/A -1150  
Final
Miami Heat 581 Heat
+13.5 -110 +4 -110 N/A N/A N/A +7.5 -122 N/A +14.5 -112  
Boston Celtics 582 Celtics
-13.5 -110 -4 -110 N/A N/A N/A -7.5 -107 N/A -14.5 -108  
Final
Miami Heat 581 Heat
o209 -110 o102 -110 N/A N/A N/A o102.5 -117 N/A o210 -112  
Boston Celtics 582 Celtics
u209 -110 u102 -110 N/A N/A N/A u102.5 -114 N/A u210 -108  
Final
Miami Heat 581 Heat
+750 N/A N/A N/A +245 +270 N/A +730  
Boston Celtics 582 Celtics
-1200 N/A N/A N/A -320 -375 N/A -1150  
Final
Miami Heat 581 Heat
+13.5 -110 +4.5 -110 +4.5 -105 +4.5 -108 +5.5 -118 +4.5 -109 +4.5 -105 +14.5 -112  
Boston Celtics 582 Celtics
-13.5 -110 -4.5 -110 -4.5 -115 -4.5 -112 -5.5 -104 -4.5 -117 -4.5 -125 -14.5 -108  
Final
Miami Heat 581 Heat
o209 -110 o53.5 -115 N/A o54.5 -108 o53.5 -120 o53.5 -122 o54.5 -115 o210 -112  
Boston Celtics 582 Celtics
u209 -110 u53.5 -105 N/A u54.5 -112 u53.5 -106 u53.5 -107 u54.5 -115 u210 -108  
Final
Miami Heat 581 Heat
+750 N/A +260 +235 +270 +295 N/A +730  
Boston Celtics 582 Celtics
-1200 N/A -350 -290 -355 -420 N/A -1150  
Final
Miami Heat 581 Heat
+13.5 -110 +3.5 -115 N/A +4.5 -115 +3.5 -100 +4.5 -120 +3.5 -110 +14.5 -112  
Boston Celtics 582 Celtics
-13.5 -110 -3.5 -115 N/A -4.5 -105 -3.5 -122 -4.5 -109 -3.5 -115 -14.5 -108  
Final
Miami Heat 581 Heat
o209 -110 o53.5 -115 N/A o53.5 -105 o53.5 -122 o53.5 -112 o52.5 -120 o210 -112  
Boston Celtics 582 Celtics
u209 -110 u53.5 -115 N/A u53.5 -115 u53.5 -104 u53.5 -120 u52.5 -105 u210 -108  
Final
Miami Heat 581 Heat
+750 N/A N/A +220 +210 +230 N/A +730  
Boston Celtics 582 Celtics
-1200 N/A N/A -270 -265 -315 N/A -1150  
Final
Miami Heat 581 Heat
+13.5 -110 +3.5 -110 N/A +4.5 -112 +3.5 -106 +4.5 -114 +4.5 -120 +14.5 -112  
Boston Celtics 582 Celtics
-13.5 -110 -3.5 -120 N/A -4.5 -108 -3.5 -114 -4.5 -114 -4.5 -105 -14.5 -108  
Final
Miami Heat 581 Heat
o209 -110 o51 -115 N/A o52.5 -112 o51.5 -113 o51.5 -117 o51.5 -110 o210 -112  
Boston Celtics 582 Celtics
u209 -110 u51 -115 N/A u52.5 -108 u51.5 -113 u51.5 -114 u51.5 -120 u210 -108  
Final
Miami Heat 581 Heat
+750 N/A N/A +215 +198 +240 N/A +730  
Boston Celtics 582 Celtics
-1200 N/A N/A -265 -250 -315 N/A -1150  
Final
Miami Heat 581 Heat
+13.5 -110 +3 -115 N/A +2.5 -108 +2.5 -122 +2.5 -105 +2.5 -120 +14.5 -112  
Boston Celtics 582 Celtics
-13.5 -110 -3 -115 N/A -2.5 -112 -2.5 -100 -2.5 -124 -2.5 -105 -14.5 -108  
Final
Miami Heat 581 Heat
o209 -110 o50.5 -115 N/A o49.5 -115 o50.5 -113 o50.5 -125 o48.5 -120 o210 -112  
Boston Celtics 582 Celtics
u209 -110 u50.5 -115 N/A u49.5 -105 u50.5 -113 u50.5 -106 u48.5 -105 u210 -108  
Final
Miami Heat 581 Heat
+750 N/A N/A +154 +146 +165 N/A +730  
Boston Celtics 582 Celtics
-1200 N/A N/A -185 -178 -220 N/A -1150  

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Heat vs Celtics Picks & Prediction

Here they come…The Miami Heat are back in the Playoffs, and they punched their ticket to the postseason almost exactly the same way they did last year. So, it’s impossible to know what to expect from this team after yet another mediocre regular season campaign.

Last season, the Heat finished 7th in the East with a record of 44-38 , while ranking 25th in offensive rating and 9th in defensive rating (21st Net Rating), and they were nearly eliminated in the Play-In Tournament after losing to Atlanta in the 7-8 matchup and then rallying back to beat Chicago to claim the 8-seed. Sound familiar?

But as we all know, the Heat went onto represent the conference in the NBA Finals after knocking off Boston in the ECF. So can we really count out Miami after improving their record to 46-36 this season, while also seeing slight upticks (21st Offensive Rating, 5th Defensive Rating) at both ends of the floor?

Fortunately for Boston this time around, the X-factor in this series will be the absence of Jimmy Butler for Miami, and I just can’t see them winning four of seven games without him. But if Butler was healthy, the Heat might’ve been worth a sprinkle to win the series outright depending on the odds – and even in his absence, it would be naive to think Miami is going to roll over and quit at this time of the year.

Push comes to shove though, the Celtics have been the best team in the NBA by a considerable margin this season, and the personal stakes are very high for them in this series. So I highly doubt we will see them take Miami lightly. However, like many great teams, the Celtics are also prone to the occasional mental lapse and they beat themselves from time-to-time – and Erik Spoelstra is a mastermind at baiting teams into traps of that particular nature. 

The Celtics jack up more 3-pointers than anybody in the league (42.5 3P Attempts Per Game), and they rank 2nd in scoring (120.6 PTS Per Game). But don’t be fooled by those metrics, Boston ranks 23rd in pace, which plays to Miami’s strengths – and when a team relies on the longball as heavily as Boston does, it usually welcomes a certain level of variance in their production. Although, the Celtics haven’t experienced much of that throughout this season.

As previously noted, I don’t necessarily think the Heat have the juice to win four of seven in this series. But I do think Miami has the ability to make things difficult for Boston and turn a few of these matchups into competitive, low-scoring struggles. Plus, now might be the time to catch Boston’s stars a little bit rusty, considering Jayson Tatum has played twice since April 7, and Kristaps Porzingis has played just 25 minutes during that same time frame.

I don’t particularly “love” it. But I’m going to pinch my nose and take the points with Miami in Game 1.

Pick: Heat +14 (-110)

Click this link for picks and predictions for all First Round NBA Playoff matchups!

Heat vs Celtics Game Time & TV Channel

Date: Sunday, April 21
Matchup: Northwest vs Southwest
Venue: Paycom Center
Location: Oklahoma City, OK
Time-TV: TNT, 9:30 p.m. ET

Heat vs Celtics Betting Stats

1) Boston Celtics
(1st Place, Atlantic)

  • Odds to Win Finals: +120
  • Odds to Win Conference: -250
  • Odds to Win Series: -8000
  • SU: 64-18
  • ATS: 43-38-1
  • O/U: 37-44-1
  • PPG: 120.6
  • OPPG: 109.2

Click this link for the latest betting trends and market movements leading up to the NBA Finals!

8) Miami Heat
(2nd Place, Southeast)

  • Odds To Win Finals: +24000
  • Odds to Win Conference: +8000
  • Odds to Win Series: +1800
  • SU: 46-36
  • ATS: 41-41
  • O/U: 43-39
  • PPG: 110.1
  • OPPG: 108.4

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson
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