Home Court Advantage in the NBA Finals

Ben Mendelowitz Sports Betting Expert

3 minute read

The home-court advantage in the NBA finals is a privilege that the best team in the NBA earns by topping the entire league. It is a right that is earned and not given. But how important can it be? Does it truly mean something to the team, and how often have teams won titles that way?

As history shows, this advantage is often seen as a critical factor that can sway the outcome of a series. The most recent example is the 2023/24 Boston Celtics, which enjoyed home-court advantage from start to finish of the playoffs and in the finals.

To get to the bottom of this concept, we explore some past finals series, which could affect how you decide to bet on these games.

Historical Significance of Home Court Advantage

Historically, home-court advantage has played a critical role in the NBA Finals. According to our analysis, teams with home-court advantage have won 71.79% of the time. Excluding the unique circumstances of the 2020 Orlando bubble, 56 of the 77 teams that held home court went on to win the championship.

Numbers don’t lie. Playing at home often correlates with success.

NBA Finals Wins as Home Team

NBA Finals Wins as Away Team

Unforgettable Finals

There are several unforgettable finals where home-court advantage gave certain teams an upper hand, even though there were exceptions to the rule that ended up going against the home teams.

• 2016 NBA Finals: The Cleveland Cavaliers made history by overcoming a 3-1 deficit against the Golden State Warriors. However, they won Game 7 on the road—a rare feat that emphasizes how exceptional circumstances can sometimes override typical trends.
• 2008 NBA Finals: The Boston Celtics secured their championship by winning all four home games against the Los Angeles Lakers, showcasing how dominant performances on familiar ground can lead to victory.

Doc Rivers stated during his tenure with Boston: “Home court is crucial; it’s where you build your momentum.” Such insights highlight how strategic planning often incorporates leveraging home advantages.

Balancing Perspectives

While home court advantage is significant, it is not an absolute determinant of success. Teams with strong mental resilience and strategic adaptability can overcome the odds.

The 1995 Houston Rockets serve as a prime example of this phenomenon. Entering the playoffs as a sixth seed, the Rockets faced a daunting path to the championship, often playing without the comfort of home-court advantage. Yet, they displayed tenacity and strategic brilliance, ultimately sweeping the Orlando Magic in the Finals.

Another notable example is the 2011 Dallas Mavericks. Despite not having a home-court advantage in the Finals against the Miami Heat, the Mavericks showcased exceptional mental fortitude and tactical execution. Led by Dirk Nowitzki, they won the series 4-2, clinching the title on Miami's home floor.

Statistical insights further illustrate that while home court advantage is beneficial, it is not insurmountable. Over the past 40 years, approximately 30% of NBA Finals have been won by teams without home-court advantage. This statistic suggests that while the odds may be stacked against them, teams can and do succeed on the road.

Psychological Factors

The psychological impact of playing at home cannot be overlooked. The presence of supportive fans creates an atmosphere that can bolster player confidence and performance. A study conducted during the COVID-affected season found that home teams won about 58.65% of games with fans, compared to only 50.6% without crowds, clearly demonstrating the crucial role fan engagement plays in enhancing team morale.

After winning a crucial playoff game, LeBron James famously noted, “There’s nothing like playing at home; our fans give us energy” - highlights a common theme among players who thrive under the encouragement of their supporters.

If you liked the above content, you should check out our BetMGM Bonus Code and DraftKings Promo Code pages.

You can find the full dataset here.

The data team at VegasInsider scraped NBA finals data from Wikipedia to carry out this analysis.

Ben Mendelowitz

Ben Mendelowitz is a digital marketing expert who excels in digital PR across industries like finance, crypto, and iGaming. With a background in international political economy, he understands market dynamics and has a knack for creating high quality that garners attention. Ben is also committed to mentoring his team and collaborating closely with content creators and SEO specialists. More from Ben Mendelowitz