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Game 1 – Lakers vs. Nuggets Picks, Predictions, Odds

Michael Crosson
Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert
3 minute read

NBA Playoffs Picks
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The NBA Playoffs resume on Tuesday night with Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals between the Los Angeles Lakers and Denver Nuggets. Coverage begins from Ball Arena in Denver at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.

The Nuggets are 8-0 SU in their last eight home games. (Getty)

LOS ANGELES LAKERS vs. DENVER NUGGETS BETTING PREDICTION

The Nuggets earned the top seed in the West by posting a record of 53-29 during the regular season, while ranking 6th in the league in net rating, which certainly was no easy feat in a jam-packed conference playing field. 

That said, though, the oddsmakers held off for the longest time on giving Denver the proper respect in the futures department, as Nikola Jokic and co. entered the playoffs with the third-best odds to win the conference at +350 behind the Suns (+200) and Warriors (+330), but now, they finally sit atop the oddsboard as slight -140 favorites to win the Western Conference over the seventh-seeded Lakers.

So, why does Denver have so many doubters? First off, the Nuggets’ defense is mediocre at best, ranked just 15th in the league in defensive rating, and that will always be the case as long as Jokic remains the focal point of this team.

Don’t get things twisted. Jokic is one of the most uniquely dominant offensive players that the the league has seen in a very long time, and he deserves to be applauded and praised as such; but it should also be pointed out that as an NBA center, one of his primary responsibilities is to protect the rim, and Jokic simply isn’t mobile enough to defend most of the league’s top tier talent down low.

And that’s a good segway to a related concern, which is the one-dimensional nature of Denver’s offensive attack. As previously mentioned, Jokic is a world-class talent on offense, so it’s no surprise the Nuggets’ entire offensive scheme revolves around him; however, that also requires Jokic to be on the floor as much as humanly possible, exerting a very high level of energy at the offensive end. So, long story short, Denver’s defensive struggles are likely here to stay moving forward.

Another reason for pause regarding this Nuggets’ team is their inability to close out opponents in matchups away from their home arena. The Nuggets posted records of 34-7 at home and 19-22 on the road during the regular season, and since then, they’re just 2-3 in their five road playoff games. Good teams win at home. Great teams win on the road; and for the time being, Denver still qualifies as a good team, not a great one.

All things considered, the Lakers are a tough matchup for Denver. Very few teams have the proper defensive tools to give this Nuggets’’ team headaches, but L. A. happens to be one of them. Jokic will go head-to-head with Anthony Davis for most of this series, an incredibly versatile force at the defensive end, and the Lakers have several other options capable of helping and switching onto the Nuggets’ two-time MVP in a pinch as well.

The Nuggets rarely win games with their play at the defensive end of the floor, so at times when their offense isn’t firing on all cylinders, they become very vulnerable.  The Lakers’ defense in the frontcourt should move the needle in a big way throughout this series. Take the points with L. A. in Game 1.

Score Prediction: Lakers 110, Nuggets 107
Best Bet: Lakers +6.5 (-110)

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LAL @ DEN Odds

  • Full Game
  • 1H
  • 1Q
  • 2Q
  • 3Q
  • 4Q
  • Spread
  • Total
  • Moneyline
Final
Los Angeles Lakers 531 Lakers
+4.5 -110 +3.5 -105 +3.5 -105 +3.5 -110 +3.5 -105 N/A +6.5 -107  
Denver Nuggets 532 Nuggets
-4.5 -110 -3.5 -115 -3.5 -115 -3.5 -110 -3.5 -115 N/A -6.5 -114  
Final
Los Angeles Lakers 531 Lakers
o223 -110 o113.5 -115 o114 -105 o113.5 -110 o113.5 -118 N/A o222.5 -110  
Denver Nuggets 532 Nuggets
u223 -110 u113.5 -105 u114 -115 u113.5 -110 u113.5 -102 N/A u222.5 -110  
Final
Los Angeles Lakers 531 Lakers
+160 +180 +175 +170 +168 N/A +217  
Denver Nuggets 532 Nuggets
-190 -225 -205 -205 -210 N/A -268  
Final
Los Angeles Lakers 531 Lakers
+4.5 -110 +1.5 +110 +2.5 -115 +2 -105 +2.5 -122 N/A +6.5 -107  
Denver Nuggets 532 Nuggets
-4.5 -110 -1.5 -135 -2.5 -105 -2 -125 -2.5 even N/A -6.5 -114  
Final
Los Angeles Lakers 531 Lakers
o223 -110 o57.5 -105 o57.5 -105 o57.5 -115 o56.5 -125 N/A o222.5 -110  
Denver Nuggets 532 Nuggets
u223 -110 u57.5 -115 u57.5 -115 u57.5 -115 u56.5 -102 N/A u222.5 -110  
Final
Los Angeles Lakers 531 Lakers
+160 +155 +150 +140 +140 N/A +217  
Denver Nuggets 532 Nuggets
-190 -200 -175 -170 -172 N/A -268  
Final
Los Angeles Lakers 531 Lakers
+4.5 -110 N/A +1.5 -110 +1.5 -110 +1.5 -102 N/A +6.5 -107  
Denver Nuggets 532 Nuggets
-4.5 -110 N/A -1.5 -110 -1.5 -120 -1.5 -120 N/A -6.5 -114  
Final
Los Angeles Lakers 531 Lakers
o223 -110 N/A o56.5 -115 o57.5 -110 o56.5 -128 N/A o222.5 -110  
Denver Nuggets 532 Nuggets
u223 -110 N/A u56.5 -105 u57.5 -120 u56.5 even N/A u222.5 -110  
Final
Los Angeles Lakers 531 Lakers
+160 N/A +135 N/A +136 N/A +217  
Denver Nuggets 532 Nuggets
-190 N/A -155 N/A -168 N/A -268  
Final
Los Angeles Lakers 531 Lakers
+4.5 -110 N/A +2 -115 +1.5 -115 +1.5 -108 N/A +6.5 -107  
Denver Nuggets 532 Nuggets
-4.5 -110 N/A -2 -105 -1.5 -115 -1.5 -112 N/A -6.5 -114  
Final
Los Angeles Lakers 531 Lakers
o223 -110 N/A o54.5 even N/A o54.5 -113 N/A o222.5 -110  
Denver Nuggets 532 Nuggets
u223 -110 N/A u54.5 -120 N/A u54.5 -113 N/A u222.5 -110  
Final
Los Angeles Lakers 531 Lakers
+160 N/A +140 N/A +132 N/A +217  
Denver Nuggets 532 Nuggets
-190 N/A -165 N/A -162 N/A -268  
Final
Los Angeles Lakers 531 Lakers
+4.5 -110 N/A +1.5 -115 +1.5 -130 +0.5 -108 N/A +6.5 -107  
Denver Nuggets 532 Nuggets
-4.5 -110 N/A -1.5 -105 -1.5 even -0.5 -112 N/A -6.5 -114  
Final
Los Angeles Lakers 531 Lakers
o223 -110 N/A o54.5 even N/A o53.5 -122 N/A o222.5 -110  
Denver Nuggets 532 Nuggets
u223 -110 N/A u54.5 -120 N/A u53.5 -104 N/A u222.5 -110  
Final
Los Angeles Lakers 531 Lakers
+160 N/A +120 N/A +104 N/A +217  
Denver Nuggets 532 Nuggets
-190 N/A -140 N/A -128 N/A -268  

LOS ANGELES LAKERS vs. DENVER NUGGETS BETTING RESOURCES

Date: Tuesday, May 16, 2023
Venue: Ball Arena
Location: Denver, Colorado
TV-Time: ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET
Matchup
Expert Picks

NBA Finals Betting Odds

LOS ANGELES LAKERS vs. DENVER NUGGETS BETTING STATS

Los Angeles Lakers
SU: 52-43
ATS: 48-45-1
O/U: 49-44-1
PPG: 117.2
OPPG: 116.6

Denver Nuggets
SU: 61-32
ATS: 52-41
O/U: 44-49
PPG: 115.8
OPPG: 112.5

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS), Over-Under (O/U)
Points Per Game (PPG), Opponents Points Per Game (OPPG)

The Lakers are 15-5 SU in their last 20 games. (Getty)

LOS ANGELES LAKERS vs. DENVER NUGGETS BETTING TRENDS

  • The Lakers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Lakers' last six games.
  • The Lakers are 15-5 SU in their last 20 games.
  • The Nuggets are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games.
  • The Nuggets are 9-3 SU in their last 12 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 12 of Denver's last 18 games against the Lakers.
  • The Nuggets are 8-0 SU in their last eight home games.
  • The total has gone OVER in nine of the Lakers' last 11 road games.
  • The Lakers are 1-4 SU in their last five road games against Denver.

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson
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