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Game 5 – Lakers vs. Warriors Picks, Predictions, Odds

Michael Crosson
Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert
4 minute read

First Round | Second Round
Eastern Conference | Western Conference
NBA Championship Betting Trends

The NBA Western Conference Semifinals resume on Wednesday night with what could potentially be the fifth and final matchup between the Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers. Game 5 coverage begins from the Chase Center in San Francisco at 10:00 p.m. ET on TNT.

The Warriors are 15-3 SU in their last 18 home games. (Getty)

LOS ANGELES LAKERS vs. GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS BETTING PREDICTION

For most of Game 4, it looked like this series was headed back to San Francisco tied 2-2, as the Warriors entered the fourth quarter of Monday’s contest leading L. A. by a score of 84-77, but ultimately, they were outscored 27-17 down the stretch thanks to 15 points on 6-of-9 shooting from Lonnie Walker in the final 12 minutes, and the Lakers managed to escape with a narrow 104-101 victory, along with a 3-1 series lead.

So, let’s take a trip back to Games 1 and 2 of this series at the Chase Center, which was a tale of two very different contests. In Game 1, the Warriors were stunned on their homefloor, as Golden State managed to cut the Lakers’ lead to just three points with just 17 seconds left in the fourth quarter, but with their fate on the line in the final moments, Jordan Poole came up empty on a potential game-tying three-point attempt, and Los Angeles escaped with a victory on the heels of a monster 30-point, 20-rebound performance from Anthony Davis. 

In Game 2, however, Davis didn’t exactly bring his A-game, and as a result, the Lakers’ offense fell apart at the seams, as Davis scored just 11 points on 5-of-11 from the field in an ugly 127-100 loss, a contest in which Los Angeles shot just 43% FG and 29% 3P.

So, which version of this Lakers’ team is going to show up on the road in Game 5? In their first road game of the series, the Lakers played incredibly physical and got to the line for 29 free throw attempts, which was 23 more FT attempts than the Warriors shot in the contest (6); and thanks to their huge advantage in that department, the Lakers managed to overcome the fact that they shot just 6-of-25 from three-point range, and still pull off the road upset. 

In their second road game of the series, though, the Lakers took their foot off the gas a bit and settled for far more long-range opportunities, as they jacked up nine more three-point attempts than they did in Game 1, and shot nine less free throws than their season average (17 FTA), leading to a 27-point loss.

Personally, I’m expecting the lackadaisical Game 2 version of this Lakers’ team to show up in Game 5; however, even if the Lakers put forth another solid effort on Wednesday night, the outcome of this contest will likely be determined by the desperation of a Warriors’ team that tends to dominate its home floor, as opposed to brief lapse in concentration by LeBron James and company.

The Warriors posted records of 33-8 at home and 11-30 on the road during the regular season, while ranking 5th and 23rd in net rating based on game location respectively. Can they steal another win in this series on the road? Maybe, they won a pair of road games in the previous round against Sacramento, and they led with less than 2:30 left in the fourth quarter of Game 4, but given their track record, I wouldn’t count on it.

What you can count on, though, is the Warriors defending homecourt down the stretch of this series, as long as they can prevent the Lakers from shooting 20+ more free throws than them like they did in Game 1.

The Lakers appear to be peaking at the right time, they rank 2nd in the league in net rating since the All-Star Break, and 4th since the start of these playoffs; however, this is still a squad that ranked just 26th in three-point attempts per game and knocked them down at the sixth-worst clip during the regular season, and not much has changed in the postseason either, ranked just 11th in attempts and 13th in percentage out of the 16 competing playoff teams.

Given the way that the cookie has crumbled this far, the Lakers probably win this series in Game 6 or 7, but in Game 5 on Wednesday night, there’s a good chance that L. A. runs into a buzzsaw of a Warriors’ team that leads the entire league in both three-point attempts per game and three-point percentage at their home arena. Lay the points with Golden State in Game 5.

Score Prediction: Warriors 121, Lakers 107
Best Bet: Warriors -7 (-110)

Take GSW!
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LAL @ GS Odds

  • Full Game
  • 1H
  • 1Q
  • 2Q
  • 3Q
  • 4Q
  • Spread
  • Total
  • Moneyline
Final
Los Angeles Lakers 551 Lakers
+6 -110 +4.5 even +5 -105 +5 even +4.5 -102 N/A +8 -112  
Golden State Warriors 552 Warriors
-6 -110 -4.5 -120 -5 -115 -5 -120 -4.5 -120 N/A -8 -109  
Final
Los Angeles Lakers 551 Lakers
o226.5 -110 o113.5 -110 o113.5 -110 o113 -115 o112.5 -116 N/A o223.5 -110  
Golden State Warriors 552 Warriors
u226.5 -110 u113.5 -110 u113.5 -110 u113 -105 u112.5 -106 N/A u223.5 -110  
Final
Los Angeles Lakers 551 Lakers
+205 +230 +225 +222 +205 N/A +249  
Golden State Warriors 552 Warriors
-250 -300 -265 -278 -260 N/A -311  
Final
Los Angeles Lakers 551 Lakers
+6 -110 +2.5 even +3 -115 +3 -115 +2.5 -102 N/A +8 -112  
Golden State Warriors 552 Warriors
-6 -110 -2.5 -120 -3 -105 -3 -115 -2.5 -120 N/A -8 -109  
Final
Los Angeles Lakers 551 Lakers
o226.5 -110 o56.5 -110 o56.5 -105 o57 -115 o56.5 -106 N/A o223.5 -110  
Golden State Warriors 552 Warriors
u226.5 -110 u56.5 -110 u56.5 -115 u57 -115 u56.5 -120 N/A u223.5 -110  
Final
Los Angeles Lakers 551 Lakers
+205 +175 +170 +170 +172 N/A +249  
Golden State Warriors 552 Warriors
-250 -225 -200 -210 -215 N/A -311  
Final
Los Angeles Lakers 551 Lakers
+6 -110 N/A +2 -110 +2.5 -115 +2.5 -110 N/A +8 -112  
Golden State Warriors 552 Warriors
-6 -110 N/A -2 -110 -2.5 -115 -2.5 -110 N/A -8 -109  
Final
Los Angeles Lakers 551 Lakers
o226.5 -110 N/A o56.5 -115 o56.5 -125 o56.5 -113 N/A o223.5 -110  
Golden State Warriors 552 Warriors
u226.5 -110 N/A u56.5 -105 u56.5 -105 u56.5 -113 N/A u223.5 -110  
Final
Los Angeles Lakers 551 Lakers
+205 N/A +140 N/A +154 N/A +249  
Golden State Warriors 552 Warriors
-250 N/A -165 N/A -192 N/A -311  
Final
Los Angeles Lakers 551 Lakers
+6 -110 N/A +2 -105 +1.5 -110 +2.5 -122 N/A +8 -112  
Golden State Warriors 552 Warriors
-6 -110 N/A -2 -115 -1.5 -120 -2.5 even N/A -8 -109  
Final
Los Angeles Lakers 551 Lakers
o226.5 -110 N/A o54.5 -115 N/A o55.5 -106 N/A o223.5 -110  
Golden State Warriors 552 Warriors
u226.5 -110 N/A u54.5 -105 N/A u55.5 -120 N/A u223.5 -110  
Final
Los Angeles Lakers 551 Lakers
+205 N/A +145 N/A +140 N/A +249  
Golden State Warriors 552 Warriors
-250 N/A -170 N/A -172 N/A -311  
Final
Los Angeles Lakers 551 Lakers
+6 -110 N/A +1.5 -115 +1.5 -130 +0.5 -105 N/A +8 -112  
Golden State Warriors 552 Warriors
-6 -110 N/A -1.5 -105 -1.5 even -0.5 -115 N/A -8 -109  
Final
Los Angeles Lakers 551 Lakers
o226.5 -110 N/A o54.5 -120 N/A o54.5 -113 N/A o223.5 -110  
Golden State Warriors 552 Warriors
u226.5 -110 N/A u54.5 even N/A u54.5 -113 N/A u223.5 -110  
Final
Los Angeles Lakers 551 Lakers
+205 N/A +120 N/A +106 N/A +249  
Golden State Warriors 552 Warriors
-250 N/A -140 N/A -130 N/A -311  

LOS ANGELES LAKERS vs. GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS BETTING RESOURCES

Date: Wednesday, May 10, 2023
Venue: Chase Center
Location: San Francisco, California
TV-Time: TNT, 10:00 p.m. ET
Matchup
Expert Picks

NBA Finals Betting Odds

LOS ANGELES LAKERS vs. GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS BETTING STATS

Los Angeles Lakers
SU: 51-42
ATS: 47-44-1
O/U: 47-44-1
PPG: 117.2
OPPG: 116.6

Golden State Warriors
SU: 49-44
ATS: 44-49
O/U: 51-42
PPG: 118.9
OPPG: 117.1

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS), Over-Under (O/U)
Points Per Game (PPG), Opponents Points Per Game (OPPG)

The total has gone UNDER in five of the last seven matchups between the Warriors and Lakers. (Getty)

LOS ANGELES LAKERS vs. GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS BETTING TRENDS

  • The Lakers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Lakers' last nine games.
  • The Lakers are 4-1 SU in their last five games.
  • The Warriors are 2-4 ATS in their last six games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of Golden State's last six games.
  • The Warriors are 2-4 SU in their last six games.
  • The Warriors are 15-3 SU in their last 18 home games.
  • The Lakers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven matchups against Golden State.
  • The Lakers are 6-1 SU in their last seven matchups against Golden State.
  • The total has gone OVER in eight of the Lakers' last ten road games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the last seven matchups between the Warriors and Lakers.

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson
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