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Mavericks vs Celtics Game 5 Picks, Odds | NBA Finals Prediction

Michael Crosson
Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert
4 minute read
Mavericks vs Celtics Game 5 Picks, Odds | NBA Finals Prediction

The 2024 NBA Finals continue, and could possibly conclude on Monday night, with Game 5 of Mavericks vs. Celtics set to tip off at 8:30 p.m. ET on ABC.

The Celtics are 6.5-point favorites on the spread in Monday's contest, while the total is set at over/under 209.5 total points at DraftKings.

Here's everything you need to know about Game 5 of the NBA Finals between Dallas and Boston -- the latest betting odds, as well as our expert picks and prediction for Monday, June 17.

For more basketball action, check out our NBA odds.

NBA Finals Game 5 Odds

DAL @ BOS Odds

  • Full Game
  • 1H
  • 1Q
  • 2Q
  • 3Q
  • 4Q
  • Spread
  • Total
  • Moneyline
Final
Dallas Mavericks 509 Mavericks
+6.5 -112 +4 -110 +4.5 -115 +4 -108 +4 even +3.5 -110 +4.5 -118 +3.5 -112 +3.5 -110 +3.5 -110 +6.5 -106  
Boston Celtics 510 Celtics
-6.5 -108 -4 -110 -4.5 -105 -4 -112 -4 -120 -3.5 -120 -4.5 -104 -3.5 -117 -3.5 -115 -3.5 -120 -6.5 -114  
Final
Dallas Mavericks 509 Mavericks
o209 -110 o108 -110 N/A o107.5 -112 o108 -105 o107.5 -115 o107.5 -112 o108.5 -109 o108.5 -107 o107.5 -115 o210.5 -112  
Boston Celtics 510 Celtics
u209 -110 u108 -110 N/A u107.5 -108 u108 -115 u107.5 -115 u107.5 -108 u108.5 -122 u108.5 -121 u107.5 -115 u210.5 -108  
Final
Dallas Mavericks 509 Mavericks
+215 N/A +180 +180 +185 +160 +184 +170 +175 N/A +215  
Boston Celtics 510 Celtics
-260 N/A -225 -218 -225 -200 -230 -230 -230 N/A -260  
Final
Dallas Mavericks 509 Mavericks
+6.5 -112 -2.5 -110 N/A +2.5 -112 +2.5 -115 N/A N/A +3.5 -124 +3.5 -122 N/A +6.5 -106  
Boston Celtics 510 Celtics
-6.5 -108 +2.5 -110 N/A -2.5 -108 -2.5 -115 N/A N/A -3.5 -108 -3.5 -107 N/A -6.5 -114  
Final
Dallas Mavericks 509 Mavericks
o209 -110 o102 -115 N/A o103 -112 o103.5 -115 N/A N/A o102.5 -120 o102.5 -118 N/A o210.5 -112  
Boston Celtics 510 Celtics
u209 -110 u102 -105 N/A u103 -108 u103.5 -115 N/A N/A u102.5 -114 u102.5 -113 N/A u210.5 -108  
Final
Dallas Mavericks 509 Mavericks
+215 N/A N/A +130 N/A N/A +138 +143 +148 N/A +215  
Boston Celtics 510 Celtics
-260 N/A N/A -155 N/A N/A -170 -190 -190 N/A -260  
Final
Dallas Mavericks 509 Mavericks
+6.5 -112 +2 -110 +2.5 -115 +2.5 -115 +2 even +1.5 -115 +2.5 -115 +2.5 -125 +2.5 -124 +1.5 -115 +6.5 -106  
Boston Celtics 510 Celtics
-6.5 -108 -2 -110 -2.5 -105 -2.5 -105 -2 -130 -1.5 -115 -2.5 -105 -2.5 -104 -2.5 -103 -1.5 -115 -6.5 -114  
Final
Dallas Mavericks 509 Mavericks
o209 -110 o54.5 -110 N/A o54.5 -108 o54.5 -120 o54.5 -120 o53.5 -118 o54.5 -117 o54.5 -115 o54.5 -115 o210.5 -112  
Boston Celtics 510 Celtics
u209 -110 u54.5 -110 N/A u54.5 -112 u54.5 -110 u54.5 -115 u53.5 -108 u54.5 -114 u54.5 -113 u54.5 -115 u210.5 -108  
Final
Dallas Mavericks 509 Mavericks
+215 N/A +145 +145 +140 +125 +142 +145 +150 N/A +215  
Boston Celtics 510 Celtics
-260 N/A -185 -175 -170 -160 -176 -195 -195 N/A -260  
Final
Dallas Mavericks 509 Mavericks
+6.5 -112 +2 -115 N/A +2 -112 +1.5 -105 +1.5 -120 +2.5 -122 +1.5 -110 +1.5 -109 +2.5 -125 +6.5 -106  
Boston Celtics 510 Celtics
-6.5 -108 -2 -115 N/A -2 -108 -1.5 -125 -1.5 -110 -2.5 -100 -1.5 -121 -1.5 -120 -2.5 even -6.5 -114  
Final
Dallas Mavericks 509 Mavericks
o209 -110 o53.5 -115 N/A o53.5 -105 o54.5 -105 o53.5 -120 o53.5 -125 o53.5 -115 o53.5 -114 o53.5 -105 o210.5 -112  
Boston Celtics 510 Celtics
u209 -110 u53.5 -115 N/A u53.5 -115 u54.5 -125 u53.5 -115 u53.5 -102 u53.5 -118 u53.5 -117 u53.5 -120 u210.5 -108  
Final
Dallas Mavericks 509 Mavericks
+215 N/A N/A +136 N/A N/A +138 +128 +130 N/A +215  
Boston Celtics 510 Celtics
-260 N/A N/A -162 N/A N/A -170 -165 -165 N/A -260  
Final
Dallas Mavericks 509 Mavericks
+6.5 -112 +1.5 -110 N/A +1.5 -105 +1.5 -115 +1.5 -105 +1.5 -105 +1.5 -106 +1.5 -104 +1.5 -105 +6.5 -106  
Boston Celtics 510 Celtics
-6.5 -108 -1.5 -120 N/A -1.5 -115 -1.5 -115 -1.5 -125 -1.5 -115 -1.5 -127 -1.5 -125 -1.5 -120 -6.5 -114  
Final
Dallas Mavericks 509 Mavericks
o209 -110 o51.5 -120 N/A o52.5 -102 N/A o51.5 -120 o51.5 -106 o51.5 -115 o51.5 -114 o52.5 -110 o210.5 -112  
Boston Celtics 510 Celtics
u209 -110 u51.5 -110 N/A u52.5 -118 N/A u51.5 -115 u51.5 -120 u51.5 -118 u51.5 -117 u52.5 -120 u210.5 -108  
Final
Dallas Mavericks 509 Mavericks
+215 N/A N/A +130 N/A N/A +130 +132 +135 N/A +215  
Boston Celtics 510 Celtics
-260 N/A N/A -155 N/A N/A -162 -175 -175 N/A -260  
Final
Dallas Mavericks 509 Mavericks
+6.5 -112 +1 -115 N/A +0.5 -105 +1.5 -125 +0.5 -105 +0.5 -106 +1.5 -118 +1.5 -118 +0.5 -105 +6.5 -106  
Boston Celtics 510 Celtics
-6.5 -108 -1 -115 N/A -0.5 -115 -1.5 -105 -0.5 -125 -0.5 -114 -1.5 -112 -1.5 -110 -0.5 -125 -6.5 -114  
Final
Dallas Mavericks 509 Mavericks
o209 -110 o50.5 -120 N/A o50.5 -115 N/A N/A o50.5 -122 o51.5 -108 o51.5 -107 o50.5 -110 o210.5 -112  
Boston Celtics 510 Celtics
u209 -110 u50.5 -110 N/A u50.5 -105 N/A N/A u50.5 -104 u51.5 -125 u51.5 -124 u50.5 -120 u210.5 -108  
Final
Dallas Mavericks 509 Mavericks
+215 N/A N/A +105 N/A +110 +106 +118 +120 N/A +215  
Boston Celtics 510 Celtics
-260 N/A N/A -125 N/A -140 -130 -155 -155 N/A -260  

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NBA Finals Game 5 Prediction & Picks

When a team lives-and-dies by the 3-ball the way the Celtics do, sometimes it’s going to be ugly, and Game 4 between these teams was an incredibly ugly outing for Boston.

The Celtics jacked up 41 3-point attempts in the latest matchup between these teams, and they scored only 84 points on 36% from the field and 34% from long range en route to a 38-point road loss (122-84). However, the dip in shooting variance wasn’t the issue for Boston in Game 4. The Celtics never truly stood a chance in a game in which Dallas shot 51% from the floor and hit 41% of their 37 attempts from 3-point land.

Some of the Mavs’ success in Game 4 can be attributed to an imbalance in motivation due to Boston previously owning a 3-0 lead in the series. However, I see it as more of a “fluke” occurrence, as Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving shot a combined 1-for-14 (7.1%) from 3-point territory in the most recent meeting between these teams, while the rest of the Mavs’ supporting cast caught fire in a completely unsustainable way, shooting an amazing 14-of-23 (61%) from long range in the blowout win.

Any way you slice it, Game 4 of this series appears to be a total outlier. Neither team scored more than 107 points in the first three games, as the first three matchups of this series all stayed well under the total at a combined average of 201.3 points per game, with Game 3 serving as the highest-scoring of the bunch at a final point total of 205 (106-99).

With that in mind, however, the final point total of Game 4 did, in fact, top the previous high-number, as the Mavericks beat Boston by a score of 122-84 on Friday night. Yet, it still equated to a rather low final tally of 206 total points and a fourth straight under result (U 211.5) for the series.

Boston’s offensive struggles in Game 4 shouldn’t have come as a total surprise. The Celtics led the NBA in offensive rating by a comfortable margin during the regular season (123.2), and they’ve continued to do so throughout the playoffs at a league-best offensive rating of 119.3 since the start of the postseason. However, the Celtics offense simply hasn’t had its best stuff over the course of this series, averaging only 100.5 points per game on a 109.6 offensive rating in the NBA Finals.

In this series, though, Boston’s secret sauce has been its dominance on defense. The Celtics managed to win the first three games of the Finals by holding Dallas to less than 100 points on a sub-110 offensive rating in all three contests, which allowed them to secure a comfortable series advantage, despite averaging only 106 points per game on a relatively mediocre offensive rating of 116 in their three wins. So, moving forward, I expect to see Boston get back to basics defensively.

We didn’t see a giant uptick in pace of play in Game 4, or anything like that. The most recent meeting between these teams clocked-in at a pace of 92.6, which is pretty similar to the pace of the first three matchups of this series; as Game 1 came in at a pace of 91.2, Game 2 at 92.7, and then Game 3 at 90.3.

The oddsmakers are clearly aware of the under-trend in this series, as we’ve seen the total steadily fall from an over-under of 216 in Game 1 all the way down to 209.5 entering Game 5. However, there must still be an abundance of ‘over’ bettors out there somewhere, because they aren’t trying too hard to scare people away from the under. With an average of 202.5 total points per game through the first four games, and a range of 196 to 206 in those four contests, I still believe this number is too high. Look for a fifth straight under in Game 5.

Pick: Under 209.5 (-110)

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NBA Finals Game 5 Time & TV Channel

Date: Monday, June 17
Matchup: Southwest vs. Atlantic
Venue: TD Garden
Location: Boston, MA
Time-TV: ABC, 8:30 p.m. ET

Mavericks vs Celtics Betting Stats

1) Boston Celtics
(1st Place, Atlantic)

  • Odds to Win Series: -3500
  • SU: 64-18
  • ATS: 43-38-1
  • O/U: 37-44-1
  • PPG: 120.6
  • OPPG: 109.2

Click here for the latest betting trends and market movements for the NBA Finals from VegasInsider Senior Reporter Patrick Everson!

5) Dallas Mavericks
(1st Place, Southwest)

  • Odds to Win Series: +1400
  • SU: 50-32
  • ATS: 48-34
  • O/U: 36-45-1
  • PPG: 117.9
  • OPPG: 115.6

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson
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