2025 NBA Futures: Lakers Shake Up Odds With Trade For Doncic
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NBA championship odds for 2024-25 got a massive jolt ahead of the trade deadline. The Dallas Mavericks sent Luka Doncic to the Los Angeles Lakers for Anthony Davis, with other players also involved in a three-team deal.
There were other big deals around the league, as well, including a Lakers move that ultimately got canceled. Yes, the Boston Celtics and Oklahoma City Thunder still sit atop odds to win the NBA Finals. But the Lakers' ultimately saw their odds shortened by more than half.
Here's everything you need to know about 2024-25 NBA Finals odds: action, line movement and betting trends. Check back regularly for updates and use our BetMGM bonus code to get the most out of your action.
2025 NBA Championship Odds
Lake Show
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In a stunning late-night development on Feb. 1, ESPN's Shams Charania broke the news that Doncic was headed to Los Angeles, and Davis would in turn go to Dallas. The Lakers also got Maxi Kleber and Markieff Morris from the Mavericks.
Max Christie joined Davis in going to the Mavs, and the Lakers also included a 2029 first-round pick. As part of the three-team deal, Los Angeles sent Jalen Hood-Schifino to the Utah Jazz, who also got the Clippers' 2025 second-round pick and the Mavs' 2025 second-round pick.
At BetMGM, Los Angeles initially leapt from +4000 to +1800, and within three hours of the deal, the Lakers' NBA championship odds got all the way into +1000.
That made L.A. the fourth choice at BetMGM. The Lakers eventually adjusted to the +1400 co-fifth choice. Entering the All-Star break, L.A. is 32-20 SU and on a 6-1 SU surge.
Since the blockbuster deal, it's been all Lakers action.
"No surprise here, the Lakers are the worst result for the book. And it’s a pretty sizable gap to the second- and third-worst, Pistons and Warriors," BetMGM trader Hal Egeland said. "Of course, the action has picked up post-trade. The Lakers have been the most-bet team since the deadline, by a decent margin."
In fact, in the first 12 hours or so after the trade, the Lakers took 64% of tickets and 57% of money wagered in the NBA Finals futures market.
However, the trade deadline wasn't all good news for the Lakers. ...
Williams Trade Canceled
The Lakers also made a deal to acquire center Mark Williams from the Charlotte Hornets. But on Feb. 8, two days after the deadline, that deal was canceled because Williams failed his physical.
"I think most people had a similar thought after the initial shock of the mega-deal. 'What the hell are they going to do next?' There was a big gap at the center position," Egeland said.
Specifically, Egeland thought the Lakers would go after a good defender, a proven rim protector. Which Williams is not. But again, that deal is now moot. So it's LeBron and Luka for the moment.
"LeBron James and Luka Doncic make the Lakers a scary team to play in the playoffs, even if the rest of their roster was the BetMGM intramural team," Egeland said. "There are going to be some ugly defensive nights for L.A., but that offense is going to be incredible to watch.
"LeBron has had some incredible teammates in his career. But I don’t think there have been many who can dissect a basketball court at a similar level to him, and Luka can do that."
Still, the Lakers have significant obstacles to overcome.
"There's still a clear gap between the Lakers and the Thunder in the West. But the Lakers are in that second tier, in my opinion," Egeland said.
Creating Separation
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The Boston Celtics are looking for a second straight championship, after beating the Dallas Mavericks 4-1 in last year's title series. Through games of Feb. 12, the Celtics are 39-16 SU, the third-best record in the league.
That's good enough for BetMGM to keep Boston atop NBA Finals odds, at a tidy +255.
But Oklahoma City is also at +225, now the co-favorite. The Thunder are a stout 44-10 through Feb. 12, winning at an 82.4% clip, tops in the NBA alongside Cleveland. (More on the Cavs below.)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander & Co. went on a torrid 19-1 SU streak from Dec. 3-Jan. 16. The only loss in that stretch was at Cleveland, 129-122 on Jan. 8. But on Jan. 16, the Thunder avenged that setback on their home court, beating the Cavs 134-114. OKC opened February with a 7-0 SU run.
"In my opinion, the Celtics and Thunder are clearly constructed the best in each conference. Both teams are built for deep playoff runs, and their championship odds reflect that," BetMGM trader Hal Egeland said.
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And perhaps Oklahoma City will soon be the solo favorite in odds to win the NBA Finals.
"I don’t think we’ve even seen the best of the Thunder yet," Egeland said. "The Thunder are one of the top two teams in the league already. They’re well-positioned to make a championship run in 2025 and beyond."
Meanwhile, Boston looks every bit the defending champion.
"I don’t think much needs to be said about the Celtics. There weren't any significant roster turnover from last year," Egeland said. "In all likelihood, the Cavs will finish with the No. 1 seed. But we know what to expect from the Celtics in the playoffs, and that was nothing short of dominant last year."
Indeed, Boston rumbled through the postseason, going 16-3 SU.
Trending Teams
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The Cavaliers are among the bigger surprises of the 2024-25 season. At 44-10, Cleveland is tied with Oklahoma City for the best mark in the NBA. The Cavs entered the All-Star break on an 8-1 SU surge.
From Dec. 1-Jan. 20, Cleveland won 12 in a row as part of a 16-1 SU spree.
All of that prompted a huge move in BetMGM's NBA Finals futures odds. Back in June, the Cavaliers opened +5000. Cleveland got as short as +700 in late January and is now the +800 third choice, behind only the Celtics and Thunder.
"Luckily for us, we didn’t take a heap of money on the Cavs early on at +5000. But customers are certainly backing them now," BetMGM trader Hal Egeland said.
Cleveland also acquired De'Andre Hunter from Atlanta in a trade-deadline deal.
"I loved the De’Andre Hunter signing for the Cavs," Egeland said. "I had some doubts with their depth, and adding a quality wing makes a massive difference. Whether they insert Hunter in the starting lineup or stick with Max Strus, it does a lot for their rotations.
"The Cavs are a small loser for the book and are the third-most-bet team" since the trade deadline.
From coaching to players, Egeland can't stop raving about the Cavaliers so far.
"Kenny Atkinson is likely going to win Coach of the Year, and he’s well-deserving," Egeland said. "The Cavaliers are playing at a faster pace, shooting higher-quality shots, and making them at a higher percentage.
"Their offensive identity is significantly better than last year, while retaining their defensive efficiency. Both Evan Mobley and Darius Garland have made jumps in their game."
The Denver Nuggets join the Lakers at +1400 sixth choice in BetMGM's NBA championship futures odds. Denver was trending before the Doncic-to-the-Lakers deal.
"I have doubts with the Nuggets when it comes to depth. But their core has championship experience, and they have, in my opinion, the best player in the world leading the way," Egeland said, obviously alluding to Nikola Jokic. "That’s a pretty solid recipe for success."
After a slow start, Denver (36-19) is 16-4 in its last 20 games, winning eight in row heading into All-Star break.
"The Nuggets' recent performance has shown that they can’t be ignored as a threat in the West," Egeland said. "The Thunder are going to be the [Western Conference] favorites, barring significant injuries, but I don’t think any team will be excited to see the Nuggets in the playoffs.
"Since we operate in Colorado, we often take a decent amount of Nuggets money, and this year is no different."
Tickets, Money, Liability
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Action in BetMGM's NBA Finals odds market is tilted toward the aforementioned teams. Boston is solidly No. 1 in tickets and money.
In ticket count, Cleveland is No. 2, followed by Oklahoma City. In money, the Thunder are No. 2, with the Golden State Warriors (28-27) somewhat surprisingly still No. 3 in money.
Golden State made a trade-deadline splash by taking disgruntled Jimmy Butler off the Miami Heat's hands. Although the Dubs improved from +8000 to +5000 after getting Butler, Egeland isn't sold on that deal helping a .500 team.
"To me, that looked like desperation," he said. "I appreciate them going for it, with Steph Curry and Draymond Green getting older. But Jimmy was the backup plan to Kevin Durant, from all reports.
"He gives them the ability to get to the free-throw line and an additional scorer outside of Steph, which was desperately needed. But I don’t think this makes the Dubs a contender."
At the All-Star break, Golden State is the +4000 co-10th choice.
The New York Knicks (36-18) are the +1300 fourth choice at BetMGM. Dallas (28-25 SU), as noted above the runner-up last season, dropped from +2000 to +3000 after shipping Doncic to the Lakers, and the Mavs are now +4000. But Egeland isn't necessarily down on Dallas.
"By nature of losing Luka in the lopsided trade, it’s hard not to consider the Mavs a loser of the deadline," Egeland said. "In the short term, however, the Mavericks are still a good team. The bettors agree.
"The Mavs are our second-most-bet team since the trade. Anthony Davis is an incredible player when healthy, and the Kyrie Irving-AD duo has a chance to be pretty special."
However, "when healthy" is the operative clause in that statement. In his first game with Dallas, Davis suffered an adductor strain in his left leg. He's expected to miss multiple weeks.
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At the moment, Egeland said BetMGM is rooting for the Orlando Magic, Houston Rockets and Memphis Grizzlies. Memphis (36-18) is the best of that batch at +2500, while Houston (34-21) is +5000 and Orlando (27-29) +10000.
Key liabilities in NBA Finals futures odds are the Lakers, Warriors and Philadelphia 76ers. At 20-34, Philly is having a miserable season and is +6600. Joel Embiid missed a boatload of time thus far, most recently sitting out 15 games with a knee issue before returning Feb. 4.
Flying Under The Radar
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Egeland noted a couple of the aforementioned teams among those that might be semi-sleeper picks in NBA Finals odds: The Houston Rockets and Memphis Grizzlies.
"Admittedly, I wasn’t a believer in the Grizzlies early on. But the Zach Edey and Jaylen Wells additions have been good for them," Egeland said of the two rookies. "The Grizzlies have implemented a unique offense, where they use the pick-and-roll less than any other team, and it’s been successful."
Memphis opened +4000 to win the title and is now +2500. Houston was a much longer shot at +10000 (100/1) to open, moved into +4000 and is now +5000.
"The Rockets may be a year or two away with their youth. But they’re one of the deepest teams in the league," Egeland said. "It doesn’t sound like they’re willing to trade away any of their assets this year.
"But if they were going to go for it in 2025, they could be a move away from really becoming a threat."
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