Golden State Warriors vs. Denver Nuggets Predictions, Picks, Odds

8 minute read

First Round NBA Playoff action will resume Sunday mid-afternoon with a compelling Game 4 showdown as the Golden State Warriors look to sweep the Denver Nuggets. Coverage begins from Ball Arena in the Mile High City at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.

Score Prediction

Warriors 119, Nuggets 110

Best Bets

Warriors -4 (-110) at Caesars

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Golden State Warriors vs. Denver Nuggets Predictions

After finishing ninth in the West with a record of 39-33 SU last year, Golden State bounced back with a triumphant start to this season, as the Warriors opened with an impressive 18-3 SU and 15-5-1 ATS run, with 14 of those victories coming by 10+ PTS.

However, Golden State was far less dominant in the combined presence of Steph Curry and Draymond Green, considering Golden State closed the regular season with a relatively pedestrian 35-25 SU and 26-31-3 ATS stretch – with most of those SU losses coming in the absence of Curry or Green (19).

On the other hand, Denver posted a surprisingly slow start to the season, as the Nuggets kicked things off with a lackluster 20-19 SU and 16-23 ATS stretch, while averaging just 105.6 OPPG across that window.

The Nuggets have played solid basketball since the midway point of January though, considering Denver enters Game 4 riding a sturdy 28-18 SU run, while generating a lofty 118.6 OPPG during that timeframe.

I’ll back Golden State here, as the Warriors have covered the spread as favorites in three straight matchups to open this series, which includes their 118-113 road victory in Game 3 despite shooting 64% from the charity stripe in Thursday’s contest (18-28 FT). So, laying a handful of points with Steve Kerr’s squad is probably your best bet for Sunday’s potential sweep scenario.

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Golden State Warriors vs. Denver Nuggets Betting Odds

More Odds | Futures Odds

Golden State Warriors vs. Denver Nuggets Betting Resources

Matchup: Pacific vs. Northwest
Date: Sunday, April 24, 2022
Venue: Ball Arena
Location: Denver, CO
TV-Time: ABC - 3:30 p.m. ET
Injury Report
NBA Playoff Betting Central

Golden State Warriors Betting Analysis

SU: 56-29
ATS: 44-37-4
O/U: 38-45-2

After last year’s lackluster 39-33 SU showing, Golden State quickly bounced back with a chip on its shoulder to start this season, as the Warriors kicked things off with SU victories in 18 of their first 20 games – with their only two losses across that window coming by slim margins of four points or less.

Golden State’s success has surprisingly come through defense since mid-December though, considering the Warriors enter Game 4 riding a relatively pedestrian 29-31-3 ATS stretch, while surrendering just 107.7 DPPG during that span.

However, Golden State’s mantra has slightly altered since the return of Klay Thompson, highlighted by the Warriors averaging roughly 115.4 OPPG across their 35 matchups since the five-time All-Star’s return.

Denver Nuggets Betting Analysis

SU: 48-37
ATS: 36-48-1
O/U: 47-36-2

Despite the year-long absence of Jamal Murray, Denver still strung together an admirable 2021-22 campaign, considering the Nuggets finished sixth in the West with a record of 48-34 SU, which fell just one game shy of the fifth-seeded Jazz and four games behind the fourth-seeded Mavericks.

The Nuggets inevitably encountered their fair share of additional health issues throughout the year, primarily highlighted by the season-ending injury to Denver’s tertiary scoring option, Michael Porter Jr.

However, Denver still boasts solid numbers at both ends of the floor, considering the Nuggets rank fifth in the league in offensive efficiency and 18^th in defensive efficiency on the year (1.113 OE, 1.095 DE), which comfortably ranks alongside other offensive powerhouses such as the Nets (1.099 OE, 1.092 DE) and Bucks (1.115 OE, 1.080 DE).

**The Warriors are 5-0 ATS in their last five matchups against Denver. (Getty Images)**

Golden State Warriors vs. Denver Nuggets Head-to-Head

The Warriors won two-of-three regular-season matchups against Denver last year, with all three contests staying under the total at an average of 218.7 PPG. However, Denver went 3-1 SU against Golden State this season, with two of those matchups staying under the total at an average of 195 PPG, while the other two cruised over at an average of 244 PPG.

More recently, Golden State stomped Denver by 15+ in the first two matchups of this series, with both contests soaring over the total at an average 231 PPG. However, Game 3 in Denver was far more competitive though, as the Warriors escaped Ball Arena with a 118-113 victory this past Thursday, but Golden State still managed to cover the spread and send the total over in a third straight matchup (GSW -2.5, O 223).

Key Players to Watch

GSW: Steph Curry - PG (25.5 PPG, 5.2 REB, 6.3 AST)
GSW: Klay Thompson - SG (20.4 PPG, 3.9 REB, 2.8 AST)
DEN: Nikola Jokic - C (27.1 PPG, 13.8 REB, 7.9 AST)
DEN: Aaron Gordon - PF (15 PPG, 5.9 REB, 2.5 AST)

Golden State Warriors vs. Denver Nuggets Betting Conclusion

After taking a commanding 3-0 lead with a 118-113 road victory on Thursday, the Warriors enter Sunday’s Game 4 as four-point road favorites over the Nuggets at Ball Arena, which is slightly heavier than the number Golden State was favored by in Game 3 (GSW -2.5).

I’ll back Golden State here, as the Warriors averaged 122.3 OPPG on 54.2% FG and 44.3% 3FG across the first three matchups of this series, compared to the Nuggets’ 108.7 OPPG on 46.2% FG and 36.1% 3FG across that span, and while Golden State’s lofty shooting numbers should ultimately level out as the postseason unfolds, I’ll continue to ride the wave against Denver in Game 4.

Golden State Warriors vs. Denver Nuggets Betting Trends

The Warriors are 8-1 ATS in their last eight games.
The Nuggets are 1-5 ATS int their last five games.
The total has gone OVER in five of the last six Warriors' games.
The total has gone OVER in seven of the last nine Nuggets' games.
The Warriors are 5-0 ATS in their last five matchups against Denver.
The total has gone OVER in five of the last six matchups between the Warriors and Nuggets.

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson