Golden State Warriors vs. Sacramento Kings Picks, Predictions, Odds

Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert

4 minute read

NBA Playoffs Picks
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The Western Conference Playoffs kick things off on Saturday night with a highly anticipated Game 1 showdown between the Golden State Warriors and Sacramento Kings. Coverage begins from the Golden 1 Center in Sacramento at 8:30 p.m. ET on ABC.

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS vs. SACRAMENTO KINGS BETTING PREDICTION

In the midst of most teams either tanking or resting their starters in preparation of the playoffs down the stretch, the Warriors managed to close the regular season with wins in four of their last five road games, which should ultimately serve as a huge jolt of confidence for a Golden State’ squad that’s posted a miserable record of 11-30 away from their home arena this year.

For a variety of reasons, though, Golden State still doesn’t strike me as a worthy candidate to back on the road in Game 1, especially as a slim one-point underdog against a very good Kings’ squad. 

Prior to their last five road games, the Warriors owned a record of 6-29 in matchups away from their home building, which somehow, was the the worst road record in the entire league at that point and time, despite teams like the Pistons winning only 17 games all season.

However, on the other side of that same coin, the Warriors absolutely dominate their homefloor, highlighted by their impressive record of 33-8 at Chase Center this season, the third-best mark in the entire league in that department; yet, a necessary feat due to their abysmal struggles on the road.

It’s only a matter of time before the Warriors’ location struggles come back to haunt them, but will they catch up with them in this series? If their road numbers hold true to what they’ve been for most of the year, there’s a very good chance that we’ll see Golden State staring down the barrel of an 0-2 hole as this series heads to San Francisco for Game 3.

There’s no denying the fact that the Kings are flawed; this team plays little-to-no defense, finishing the year ranked Bottom 5 in both points allowed and defensive rating (118 OPPG, 116.8 DRtg). However, how about a little respect for the third seed in the conference?

Not many teams have the ability to stand toe-to-toe and trade punches with Golden State in the long-range shooting department, however, the Kings are one of the few teams capable of doing so, ranked 6th in the league in three-point attempts per game (37.3 3PA), and they knock them down at the ninth-best clip (36.9 3P%). 

Sure, it’s not quite as efficient as the Warriors jacking up 43 three-pointers per game at a 39% clip; but it’s enough to give Golden State trouble on the road, and maybe even steal a win on an off-night in San Francisco.

All that said, the Kings still enter this series as steep +215 underdogs against the sixth-seeded Warriors (-260), which doesn’t come as a total surprise given the pedigree of this Golden State’ team, but again, this line appears to be set based on historical results as opposed to the current state of these two squads; with very little regard for the fact that Sacramento receives an extra home game, and Golden State has posted a road winning percentage of 27% on the year.

When this series transitions back to the Chase Center for Game 3, it'd probably be wise to steer clear of the Kings, because push comes to shove, the Warriors are still the team with the most upside in this series, especially at home; but time and time again, Golden State has proven to be an untrustworthy betting option away from their home arena, so at the very least, you should be able to count on them to drop one of their first two road matchups in this series, if not both.

Score Prediction: Kings 119, Warriors 114
Best Bet: Kings ML (-110)

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GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS vs. SACRAMENTO KINGS BETTING ODDS

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS vs. SACRAMENTO KINGS BETTING RESOURCES

Date: Saturday, April 15, 2023
Venue: Golden 1 Center
Location: Sacramento, California
TV-Time: ABC, 8:30 p.m. ET
Matchup
Expert Picks

NBA Finals Betting Odds

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS vs. SACRAMENTO KINGS BETTING STATS

Golden State Warriors
SU: 44-38
ATS: 40-42
O/U: 46-36
PPG: 118.9
OPPG: 117.1

Sacramento Kings
SU: 48-34
ATS: 45-36-1
O/U: 41-41
PPG: 120.7
OPPG: 118.1

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS), Over-Under (O/U)
Points Per Game (PPG), Opponents Points Per Game (OPPG)

Updated on 01/16/2025

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GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS vs. SACRAMENTO KINGS BETTING TRENDS

• The Warriors are 4-2 ATS in their last six games.
• The Warriors are 5-1 SU in their last six games.
• The total has gone UNDER in four of Sacramento's last five games.
• The Kings are 1-4 SU in their last five games.
• The total has gone UNDER in six of Sacramento's last nine matchups against Golden State.
• The Kings are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.
• The Warriors are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 matchups against Sacramento.
• The Warriors are 8-1 SU in their last nine matchups against Sacramento.
• The Warriors are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games.

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson