Sacramento Kings vs. Golden State Warriors Picks, Predictions, Odds

Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert

3 minute read

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The opening round of the NBA Playoffs resumes on Thursday night with a pivotal Game 3 showdown between the Sacramento Kings and Golden State Warriors. Coverage begins from the Chase Center in San Francisco at 10:00 p.m. ET on TNT.

SACRAMENTO KINGS vs. GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS BETTING PREDICTION

Despite finishing sixth in the Western Conference with a regular season record of 44-38, the Warriors still opened their first round playoff matchup as surprisingly steep -260 favorites over the third-seeded Kings, which never came as a total surprise given the pedigree of this Golden State’ team, however, the opening line for this series was clearly set based on historical postseason results as opposed to the recent state of these two squads.

However, Sacramento quickly flipped the script in the first two matchups, as the Kings rumbled to a pair of home victories in Games 1 and 2, and now, they hit the road for Game 3 in San Francisco listed as -175 favorites to advance to the second round.

Even the most adamant Warriors’ bettors can still easily argue that the first two matchups of this series turned out exactly as expected, though. The Warriors posted a miserable record of 10-31 on the road during the regular season, while ranking 23rd in the league in net rating in those contests. So, the fact that they dropped their first two matchups of this series shouldn’t be an overly worrisome notion in terms of an isolated Game 3 wager.

On the other side of that same coin, though, the Warriors’ only saving grace throughout the year was their dominance at home, highlighted by Golden State posting impressive record of 33-8 at Chase Center this season, the third-best mark in the entire league in that department; yet, a necessary feat due to their abysmal struggles on the road.

Take nothing away from the Kings. Beating Golden State in back-to-back playoff games under any set of circumstances should be considered a huge accomplishment, but if Sacramento is expecting a similarly tame performance from the Warriors in Game 3, they’ll be sadly mistaken, because this is a completely different team on their homefloor.

In the first two matchups of this series, the Kings managed to escape with victories despite posting slightly worse percentage clips from the field, highlighted by Sacramento shooting just 45% FG and 30% 3FG across Games 1 and 2, which was more than enough to get the job done at home, but they’ll likely need to improve upon those numbers on the road in order to top a Warriors’ squad that shot 48% FG and 39% 3FG on their homefloor this season. 

Oftentimes, basketball fans will point out when certain teams play well at home or struggle on the road, which to be fair, can usually be chalked up to wide variety of factors, however, it’s incredibly rare for a team to display such a large differential within its home vs. away splits, and at this point, it’s tough to deny the massive impact of game location on the Warriors’ results over the course of their campaign.

Score Prediction: Warriors 124, Kings 112
Best Bet: Warriors -5.5 (-110)

Take GSW!

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SACRAMENTO KINGS vs. GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS BETTING ODDS

The end of Game 2 has carried over to Game 3 and the suspension of Golden State forward Draymond Green has affected all the numbers on this series.

VegasInsider Senior Report Patrick Everson provides all the information on the league's decision.

Books adjust odds after Draymond Green suspension

SACRAMENTO KINGS vs. GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS BETTING RESOURCES

Date: Thursday, April 20, 2023
Venue: Chase Center
Location: San Francisco, California
TV-Time: TNT, 10:00 p.m. ET
Matchup
Expert Picks

NBA Finals Betting Odds

SACRAMENTO KINGS vs. GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS BETTING STATS

Sacramento Kings
SU: 50-34
ATS: 47-36-1
O/U: 42-42
PPG: 120.7
OPPG: 118.1

Golden State Warriors
SU: 44-40
ATS: 40-44
O/U: 47-37
PPG: 118.9
OPPG: 117.1

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS), Over-Under (O/U)
Points Per Game (PPG), Opponents Points Per Game (OPPG)

SACRAMENTO KINGS vs. GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS BETTING TRENDS

• The Kings are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games.
• The total has gone UNDER in five of Sacramento's last six games.
• The Kings are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against Golden State.
• The Warriors are 8-4 SU in their last 12 games.
• The Warriors are 12-1 SU in their last 13 home games.
• The Kings are 3-8 SU in their last 11 games against Golden State.
• The Kings are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games.
• The Kings are 0-6 SU in their last six road games against Golden State.

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson