Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat Picks, Predictions, Odds

Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert

3 minute read

NBA Playoffs Picks
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The opening round of the NBA Playoffs resumes on Monday night with a pivotal Game 4 showdown in the Eastern Conference between the Milwaukee Bucks and Miami Heat. Coverage begins from the Kaseya Center in South Florida at 7:30 p.m. ET on TNT.

MILWAUKEE BUCKS vs. MIAMI HEAT BETTING PREDICTION

The Bucks originally entered this series as massive -1200 favorites to advance to the second round, and rightfully so, as Milwaukee posted the best regular season record in the entire league at 58-24, while contrarily, the Heat were pushed to brink of elimination in the Play-In Tournament after finishing eighth in the standings with a record of 44-38, and then getting beat by double-digits in their 7-vs-8 seed matchup in Atlanta.

However, the landscape of this series quickly changed in the opening minutes of Game 1, as Giannis Antetokounmpo went down with a back injury at the 4:13 mark in the first quarter, while already trailing Miami by a score of 24-12, and the Bucks were never able to recover on the way to a 130-117 loss, causing Milwaukee’s odds to win the series to plummet from -1200 to -225 in just a matter of hours. 

At the time of this posting, it’s still unclear as to when Antetokounmpo will return to the Bucks’ lineup, but in Game 2, his absence certainly wasn’t felt a great deal, as Milwaukee erupted for 138 points on 54% FG and 51% 3P in a triumphant double-digit home win to even the series.

To a certain extent, the Bucks’ defensive struggles flew under the radar in Game 2 due to their success on offense and a satisfying end result, but it should still be noted that the Heat scored 122 points on 54% FG and 44% 3P in the loss, and to the surprise of many, they managed to replicate and build upon those numbers on their homefloor in Game 3 (54% FG, 49% 3P).

So, it begs the question, is Milwaukee’s defense suffering due to the absence of Antetokounmpo? Or is Miami’s offense simply firing on all cylinders right now? The simple answer seems to be, it’s been a little bit of both.

In the absence of their superstar seven-footer, the Bucks don’t want to fight their battles inside the paint, so they’ve tried to bait Miami into shoot the longball more often, and it hasn’t worked out thus far, highlighted by the Heat shooting a whopping 47-of-94 from beyond the arc in the first three matchups of this series; 50% on the dot at a very low attempt rate.

Regardless of Antetokoumpo’s presence, Miami has defied expectations in all sorts of ways through the first three matchups of this series. This is a Heat’ team that jacked up 35 three-pointers per game at the fourth-worst clip in the league during the regular season, and now, ever since this series started, they’ve attempted just 31 three-pointers per game and buried them at a 50% clip. 

If the Law of Averages has anything to say about the future of this series, it’s only a matter of time before Milwaukee tightens up on defense and Miami’s shooting numbers come crashing back to reality. Lay the points with the Bucks in Game 4.

Score Prediction: Bucks 118, Heat 106
Best Bet: Bucks -7 (-110)

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MILWAUKEE BUCKS vs. MIAMI HEAT BETTING ODDS

MILWAUKEE BUCKS vs. MIAMI HEAT BETTING RESOURCES

Date: Monday, April 24, 2023
Venue: Kaseya Center
Location: Miami, Florida
TV-Time: TNT, 7:30 p.m. ET
Matchup
Expert Picks

NBA Finals Betting Odds

MILWAUKEE BUCKS vs. MIAMI HEAT BETTING STATS

Milwaukee Bucks
SU: 59-26
ATS: 46-39
O/U: 44-41
PPG: 116.9
OPPG: 113.3

Miami Heat
SU: 47-40
ATS: 34-51
O/U: 44-41
PPG: 109.5
OPPG: 109.8

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS), Over-Under (O/U)
Points Per Game (PPG), Opponents Points Per Game (OPPG)

Updated on 01/06/2025

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MILWAUKEE BUCKS vs. MIAMI HEAT BETTING TRENDS

• The Bucks are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
• The total has gone OVER in five straight Bucks' games.
• The Heat are 4-2 ATS in their last six games.
• The total has gone OVER in eight of Miami's last ten games.
• The Heat are 7-3 SU in their last ten games.
• The Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.
• The Bucks are 1-4 SU in their last five games.
• The total has gone OVER in six of Milwaukee's last seven road games.
• The total has gone OVER in five straight matchups between Miami and Milwaukee.

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson