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Thunder vs Mavericks Game 4 Picks, Odds | NBA Playoffs Prediction

Michael Crosson
Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert
4 minute read

The second round of the NBA Playoffs continues with an excellent doubleheader on Monday night -- and the second matchup of the evening we'll preview is Thunder vs. Mavericks Game 4, which is scheduled for 9:30 p.m. ET on TNT.

The Mavs are 2-point favorites on the spread in Monday's contest, while the total is set at over/under 214.5 total points at DraftKings.

Here's everything you need to know about Game 4 of the Western Conference Semifinals between the Mavericks and Thunder -- the latest betting odds, as well as our expert picks and prediction for the NBA Playoffs on Monday, May 13.

Thunder vs Mavericks Odds

OKC @ DAL Odds

  • Full Game
  • 1H
  • 1Q
  • 2Q
  • 3Q
  • 4Q
  • Spread
  • Total
  • Moneyline
Final
Oklahoma City Thunder 515 Thunder
+2 -110 +0.5 -115 +0.5 -110 +0.5 -120 +0.5 -108 +0.5 -118 +0.5 -122 +0.5 -120 +1 -110  
Dallas Mavericks 516 Mavericks
-2 -110 -0.5 -105 -0.5 -110 -0.5 -110 -0.5 -112 -0.5 -104 -0.5 -104 -0.5 -110 -1 -110  
Final
Oklahoma City Thunder 515 Thunder
o217 -112 o105.5 -110 N/A o105.5 -115 o105.5 -110 o105.5 -105 o106.5 -112 o105.5 -115 o215 -110  
Dallas Mavericks 516 Mavericks
u217 -108 u105.5 -110 N/A u105.5 -115 u105.5 -110 u105.5 -115 u106.5 -115 u105.5 -115 u215 -110  
Final
Oklahoma City Thunder 515 Thunder
+106 N/A -105 -110 +102 -108 -112 N/A -106  
Dallas Mavericks 516 Mavericks
-124 N/A -115 -120 -122 -112 -114 N/A -110  
Final
Oklahoma City Thunder 515 Thunder
+2 -110 -4 -110 N/A N/A N/A N/A +1.5 -129 N/A +1 -110  
Dallas Mavericks 516 Mavericks
-2 -110 +4 -110 N/A N/A N/A N/A -1.5 -103 N/A -1 -110  
Final
Oklahoma City Thunder 515 Thunder
o217 -112 o109.5 -110 N/A N/A N/A N/A o107.5 -112 N/A o215 -110  
Dallas Mavericks 516 Mavericks
u217 -108 u109.5 -110 N/A N/A N/A N/A u107.5 -120 N/A u215 -110  
Final
Oklahoma City Thunder 515 Thunder
+106 N/A N/A N/A N/A -106 even N/A -106  
Dallas Mavericks 516 Mavericks
-124 N/A N/A N/A N/A -114 -127 N/A -110  
Final
Oklahoma City Thunder 515 Thunder
+2 -110 +0.5 -115 +0.5 -120 +0.5 -125 +0.5 -112 -0.5 -105 +0.5 -121 +0.5 -125 +1 -110  
Dallas Mavericks 516 Mavericks
-2 -110 -0.5 -105 -0.5 even -0.5 -105 -0.5 -108 +0.5 -115 -0.5 -105 -0.5 -105 -1 -110  
Final
Oklahoma City Thunder 515 Thunder
o217 -112 o53 -110 N/A N/A o52.5 -110 o52.5 -128 o53.5 -105 o52.5 -120 o215 -110  
Dallas Mavericks 516 Mavericks
u217 -108 u53 -110 N/A N/A u52.5 -110 u52.5 -100 u53.5 -124 u52.5 -110 u215 -110  
Final
Oklahoma City Thunder 515 Thunder
+106 N/A -105 -110 -102 -115 -107 N/A -106  
Dallas Mavericks 516 Mavericks
-124 N/A -115 -120 -118 -105 -118 N/A -110  
Final
Oklahoma City Thunder 515 Thunder
+2 -110 +0.5 -120 N/A +0.5 -125 +0.5 -115 +0.5 -122 -1.5 +118 +0.5 -120 +1 -110  
Dallas Mavericks 516 Mavericks
-2 -110 -0.5 -110 N/A -0.5 -105 -0.5 -105 -0.5 -100 +1.5 -152 -0.5 -110 -1 -110  
Final
Oklahoma City Thunder 515 Thunder
o217 -112 o53.5 -115 N/A N/A o53.5 -105 o52.5 -130 o53.5 -110 o52.5 -120 o215 -110  
Dallas Mavericks 516 Mavericks
u217 -108 u53.5 -115 N/A N/A u53.5 -115 u52.5 +102 u53.5 -121 u52.5 -105 u215 -110  
Final
Oklahoma City Thunder 515 Thunder
+106 N/A N/A N/A -105 -110 -115 N/A -106  
Dallas Mavericks 516 Mavericks
-124 N/A N/A N/A -115 -110 -110 N/A -110  
Final
Oklahoma City Thunder 515 Thunder
+2 -110 +0.5 -115 N/A +0.5 -125 -0.5 even +0.5 -114 +1.5 -148 +0.5 -120 +1 -110  
Dallas Mavericks 516 Mavericks
-2 -110 -0.5 -115 N/A -0.5 -105 +0.5 -120 -0.5 -106 -1.5 +114 -0.5 -110 -1 -110  
Final
Oklahoma City Thunder 515 Thunder
o217 -112 o53.5 -115 N/A N/A o54.5 -108 o54.5 -108 o53.5 -110 o54.5 -120 o215 -110  
Dallas Mavericks 516 Mavericks
u217 -108 u53.5 -115 N/A N/A u54.5 -112 u54.5 -118 u53.5 -121 u54.5 -110 u215 -110  
Final
Oklahoma City Thunder 515 Thunder
+106 N/A N/A N/A -110 -104 -108 N/A -106  
Dallas Mavericks 516 Mavericks
-124 N/A N/A N/A -110 -118 -118 N/A -110  
Final
Oklahoma City Thunder 515 Thunder
+2 -110 +0.5 -120 N/A +0.5 -125 +0.5 -122 -0.5 -105 +1.5 -137 +0.5 -120 +1 -110  
Dallas Mavericks 516 Mavericks
-2 -110 -0.5 -110 N/A -0.5 -105 -0.5 +102 +0.5 -115 -1.5 +106 -0.5 -105 -1 -110  
Final
Oklahoma City Thunder 515 Thunder
o217 -112 o53.5 -115 N/A N/A o53.5 -110 o54.5 -102 o53.5 -125 o53.5 -110 o215 -110  
Dallas Mavericks 516 Mavericks
u217 -108 u53.5 -115 N/A N/A u53.5 -110 u54.5 -125 u53.5 -107 u53.5 -115 u215 -110  
Final
Oklahoma City Thunder 515 Thunder
+106 N/A N/A -110 -108 -115 +102 N/A -106  
Dallas Mavericks 516 Mavericks
-124 N/A N/A -120 -112 -105 -130 N/A -110  

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Thunder vs Mavericks Picks & Prediction

In the first game of this Western Conference Semifinal matchup between the Thunder and Mavericks, it looked like Dallas might not be able to run with this young OKC team out of the gate, as the Mavericks scored just 95 points on 39% from the field and 34% from 3-point range on the way to an ugly 22-point loss in Game 1 this past Tuesday.

However, as we learned in the following two matchups, it’s much easier to reduce the gap in youth and athleticism when the team lacking in those two departments completely dominates from beyond the arc – and that’s exactly how Dallas managed to take the lead in this series, as the Mavs erupted from downtown by knocking down 29-of-70 (41.4%) attempts from 3-point range in Games 2 and 3, which was enough to propel them to a pair of wins and a 2-1 series lead. But both wins came by surprisingly narrow margins given the discrepancy in 3-point shooting between the two teams (Game 2: 119-110, Game 3: 105-101).

Not only did the Mavericks shoot the ball incredibly well from long range in Games 2 and 3, the Thunder also helped them out with a pair of subpar shooting performances, as they hit only 10 of their 30 (on the dot) 3-point attempts in each of their latest two outings (33.3%), and I expect much better from an OKC team that led the entire NBA in 3-point shooting percentage during the regular season at 38.9%.

Basketball fans are probably sick of hearing the phrase “3-point variance.” But, as far as I’m concerned, it’s the only thing you need to know about as we move forward in this series. The Thunder shot 45.7% from 3-point range on the way to a win in Game 1, and then 33.3% across a pair of losses in Games 2 and 3. The Mavs shot 34.3% from 3-point territory in a loss in Game 1, and then went 41.4% from downtown en route to wins in Games 2 and 3. 

As long as Dallas has Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving at the helm, there’s always a chance of the Mavericks lighting up the scoreboard and leaving the opposition helpless like they did in Game 2. However, even on their best night, the Mavs still had a little bit of trouble putting away OKC in the second matchup of this series – and then in Game 3, they were incredibly fortunate that PJ Washington was willing and able to carry the bulk of the scoring load in a tight battle, as Washington scored 27 points on 11-of-23 (47.8%) shooting and 5-of-12 (41.7%) from 3-point range, while the rest of the team shot 41% from the field and 29% from long range in a 4-point win for Dallas. 

The lack of homecourt advantage certainly doesn’t help this young Thunder team with the stakes incredibly high in Game 4. But push comes to shove, I still trust OKC’s athleticism and consistency to prosper over the Mavs’ occasional combustibility in the scoring department moving forward. I’ll back OKC to win Monday’s contest.

Pick: Thunder ML (+110)

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Thunder vs Mavericks Game Time & TV Channel

Date: Monday, May 13
Matchup: Southwest vs. Northwest
Venue: American Airlines Center
Location: Dallas, TX
Time-TV: TNT, 9:30 p.m. ET

Thunder vs Mavericks Betting Stats

1) Oklahoma City Thunder
(1st Place, Northwest)

  • Odds to Win Finals: +1300
  • Odds to Win Conference: +500
  • Odds to Win Series: -235
  • SU: 57-25
  • ATS: 46-35-1
  • O/U: 45-36-1
  • PPG: 120.1
  • OPPG: 112.7

Click this link for the latest betting trends and market movements leading up to the NBA Finals!

5) Dallas Mavericks
(1st Place, Southwest)

  • Odds to Win Finals: +800
  • Odds to Win Conference: +250
  • Odds to Win Series: +186
  • SU: 50-32
  • ATS: 48-34
  • O/U: 36-45-1
  • PPG: 117.9
  • OPPG: 115.6

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson
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