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Bills vs Chargers Prediction, Picks, Odds | Saturday Night Football Week 16

Michael Crosson
Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert
4 minute read
Bills vs Chargers Prediction, Picks, Odds | Saturday Night Football Week 16

Here's everything you need to know about the Bills vs. Chargers Picks, Predictions, and Odds for Saturday Night Football Week 16.

Week 16 of the NFL regular season continues with a Saturday night primetime clash between the Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Chargers. Coverage begins from SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California at 8:00 p.m. ET on Peacock.

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Bills vs Chargers Betting Prediction & Odds for Saturday Night Football Week 16

Matchup Spread Total Moneyline

It has been quite the roller coaster for the Bills so far this season. Not too long ago, many fans declared Buffalo “the biggest disappointment in the league” – and rightfully so. The Bills posted a record of 5-5 in their first 10 games of the season, and the ship appeared to be sinking quickly entering Week 11 after posting back-to-back losses to Cincinnati and Denver, which resulted in the firing of offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey.

The move came with heavy criticism too, as Buffalo’s tandem of issues seemed like it couldn’t be resolved by simply making a change at offensive coordinator. However, interim OC Joe Brady may beg to differ. Prior to the firing of Dorsey, the Bills were constantly plagued by their turnover woes and inability to run the ball. But to the surprise of many, the identity of Buffalo’s offense has quickly changed since the promotion of Brady – and now all of a sudden, the Bills are playing like the powerhouse that everybody envisioned prior to the season.

The Bills are 3-1 since the transition from Dorsey to Brady at OC, with their wins during that span coming in a pair of blowouts against the Jets and Cowboys as well as a tight win over the Chiefs – and their only loss coming in a 37-34 overtime shootout in Philly.

However, the most encouraging part of the Bills’ recent success is the fact that their rushing attack has dominated the last four games, which has been a huge help in cleaning up some of their wretched turnover woes. After falling short of the 100-yard rushing mark in nearly half of their first 10 contests (4), the Bills have rushed for 118-plus yards in four straight games – and after turning the ball over 13 times in the six games preceding Dorsey’s firing, they’ve turned the ball over just three times during their latest four-game stretch.

On the flip side, Chargers QB Justin Herbert is out for the season – and in the last two games with backup QB Easton Stick, LA scored just seven points in a 24-7 loss to Denver, and 21 points in a 63-21 loss to Vegas. So, I wouldn’t bank on the Chargers lighting up the scoreboard in this contest. However, LA’s defense is terrible. The Chargers rank 28th in points allowed and 27th in yards allowed per play, and that’s bad news heading into a matchup against a Buffalo offense that’s put up 31-plus points in much tougher matchups in three of the last four weeks (DAL, PHI, NYJ).

That said, I still believe Buffalo -12 is too steep of a price to pay in this spot. Instead, I’m betting the over at OU 44. The Chargers surrendered 63 points to the Raiders’ backup QB last week. So I think it’s fair to say the Bills may very well score 45-plus points on their own against LA. But even if the Buffalo’s offense posts a relatively tame performance, the Chargers will likely rally behind the firing of their head coach and play with a lot of energy on Saturday night, which could potentially lead to a hefty amount of garbage time scoring and a late backdoor cover. Give me the over.

Score Prediction: Bills 34, Chargers 20
Best Bet: Over 44 (-110)

BUF @ LAC Odds

  • Full Game
  • 1H
  • 1Q
  • 2Q
  • 3Q
  • 4Q
  • Spread
  • Total
  • Moneyline
Final
Buffalo Bills 455 Bills
-11.5 -105 -7 -120 -7.5 even -8.5 -110 -7.5 -105 -7.5 +105 -6.5 -130 -12.5 -105  
Los Angeles Chargers 456 Chargers
+11.5 -115 +7 even +7.5 -120 +8.5 -110 +7.5 -115 +7.5 -125 +6.5 +104 +12.5 -115  
Final
Buffalo Bills 455 Bills
o41.5 -115 o23 -110 N/A o23.5 -102 o23 -110 o22.5 -130 o23.5 +102 o44.5 -110  
Los Angeles Chargers 456 Chargers
u41.5 -105 u23 -110 N/A u23.5 -118 u23 -110 u22.5 +110 u23.5 -125 u44.5 -110  
Final
Buffalo Bills 455 Bills
-620 -380 -400 -470 -400 -380 -385 -750  
Los Angeles Chargers 456 Chargers
+460 +300 +300 +360 +310 +280 +280 +530  
Final
Buffalo Bills 455 Bills
-11.5 -105 -5.5 -110 N/A N/A -4.5 -105 -5.5 -110 -6.5 -106 -12.5 -105  
Los Angeles Chargers 456 Chargers
+11.5 -115 +5.5 -110 N/A N/A +4.5 -115 +5.5 -110 +6.5 -118 +12.5 -115  
Final
Buffalo Bills 455 Bills
o41.5 -115 o20.5 -110 N/A N/A o20.5 -115 o21.5 -110 o20.5 -118 o44.5 -110  
Los Angeles Chargers 456 Chargers
u41.5 -105 u20.5 -110 N/A N/A u20.5 -105 u21.5 -110 u20.5 -105 u44.5 -110  
Final
Buffalo Bills 455 Bills
-620 -280 N/A N/A N/A -290 -315 -750  
Los Angeles Chargers 456 Chargers
+460 +230 N/A N/A N/A +235 +235 +530  
Final
Buffalo Bills 455 Bills
-11.5 -105 -3 -110 -3 -110 -2.5 -130 -3 -110 -3.5 +110 -3.5 +104 -12.5 -105  
Los Angeles Chargers 456 Chargers
+11.5 -115 +3 -110 +3 -120 +2.5 +110 +3 -110 +3.5 -134 +3.5 -129 +12.5 -115  
Final
Buffalo Bills 455 Bills
o41.5 -115 o7.5 -115 N/A o8.5 -115 o7.5 -115 o7.5 -112 o8.5 -117 o44.5 -110  
Los Angeles Chargers 456 Chargers
u41.5 -105 u7.5 -105 N/A u8.5 -105 u7.5 -105 u7.5 -108 u8.5 -107 u44.5 -110  
Final
Buffalo Bills 455 Bills
-620 -230 -250 -245 -240 -230 -278 -750  
Los Angeles Chargers 456 Chargers
+460 +190 +180 +200 +196 +184 +215 +530  
Final
Buffalo Bills 455 Bills
-11.5 -105 -3.5 -110 N/A -3.5 -115 N/A -4.5 +102 N/A -12.5 -105  
Los Angeles Chargers 456 Chargers
+11.5 -115 +3.5 -110 N/A +3.5 -115 N/A +4.5 -124 N/A +12.5 -115  
Final
Buffalo Bills 455 Bills
o41.5 -115 o13.5 +105 N/A o20.5 -135 N/A o20.5 -172 N/A o44.5 -110  
Los Angeles Chargers 456 Chargers
u41.5 -105 u13.5 -125 N/A u20.5 +105 N/A u20.5 +126 N/A u44.5 -110  
Final
Buffalo Bills 455 Bills
-620 -280 N/A -340 N/A -290 N/A -750  
Los Angeles Chargers 456 Chargers
+460 +230 N/A +270 N/A +225 N/A +530  
Final
Buffalo Bills 455 Bills
-11.5 -105 -2.5 -115 N/A -2.5 -135 N/A -2.5 -130 N/A -12.5 -105  
Los Angeles Chargers 456 Chargers
+11.5 -115 +2.5 -105 N/A +2.5 +114 N/A +2.5 +108 N/A +12.5 -115  
Final
Buffalo Bills 455 Bills
o41.5 -115 o7.5 even N/A o8.5 -112 N/A o8.5 -120 N/A o44.5 -110  
Los Angeles Chargers 456 Chargers
u41.5 -105 u7.5 -120 N/A u8.5 -108 N/A u8.5 -110 N/A u44.5 -110  
Final
Buffalo Bills 455 Bills
-620 -225 N/A -258 N/A -225 N/A -750  
Los Angeles Chargers 456 Chargers
+460 +185 N/A +210 N/A +180 N/A +530  
Final
Buffalo Bills 455 Bills
-11.5 -105 -2.5 -130 N/A -3.5 +110 N/A -2.5 -122 N/A -12.5 -105  
Los Angeles Chargers 456 Chargers
+11.5 -115 +2.5 +110 N/A +3.5 -130 N/A +2.5 -100 N/A +12.5 -115  
Final
Buffalo Bills 455 Bills
o41.5 -115 o10.5 -110 N/A o12.5 -102 N/A o12.5 -120 N/A o44.5 -110  
Los Angeles Chargers 456 Chargers
u41.5 -105 u10.5 -110 N/A u12.5 -118 N/A u12.5 -102 N/A u44.5 -110  
Final
Buffalo Bills 455 Bills
-620 -190 N/A -245 N/A -205 N/A -750  
Los Angeles Chargers 456 Chargers
+460 +160 N/A +200 N/A +164 N/A +530  

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Bills vs Chargers Betting Resources

Date: Saturday, December 16
Matchup: AFC West vs. NFC North
Venue: Ford Field
Location: Detroit, Michigan
Time-TV: NFL Network, 8:15 p.m. ET

Click here for Vegas Insider senior reporter Patrick Everson's full NFL Odds Week 16 Report containing spreads, lines, and trends for every NFL matchup.

Use our BetMGM bonus code before making your Bills vs Chargers pick to get bonus bets!

Buffalo Bills Betting Analysis

There’s no denying the fact that Josh Allen is one of the most talented quarterbacks in the NFL. However, he isn’t Superman – and just like all talented QBs, he still needs members of his supporting cast to step up and make big plays in order to take some of the weight off his shoulders and operate at maximum efficiency.

Check out our Super Bowl odds for a preview of the teams likely to be in the big game.

Los Angeles Chargers Betting Analysis

In his first start of the season vs. Denver, Stick completed just 13 of 24 pass attempts for 179 yards despite losing the game by 17 points – and then last week vs. Vegas, he completed 23 of 32 attempts for 257 yards in a 42-point loss. However, his yardage total from last week is heavily inflated by a 79-yard touchdown strike to Josh Palmer as a result of a Raiders’ blown coverage. Take away that huge TD strike, and Stick would have finished with 178 passing yards in last week’s massive blowout.

Bills vs Chargers Betting Trends

  • The Bills are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of Buffalo's last seven games.
  • The Chargers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 10 of the Chargers' last 12 games.
  • The Chargers are 1-5 SU in their last six games.
  • The Bills are 13-7 SU in their last 20 games.

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson
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