Bills vs Jets Picks, Predictions, Odds | Monday Night Football Week 1

Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert

5 minute read

Week 1 of the NFL regular season concludes on Monday night with a highly anticipated AFC East clash between the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets. Coverage begins from MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford at 8:15 p.m. ET on ABC.

Here's everything you need to know about the Bills vs Jets Picks, Predictions, and Odds for Monday Night Football Week 1.

Bills vs Jets Picks, Betting Prediction, Odds for Thursday Night Football Week 1

The AFC East is officially stacked to the brim following New York’s acquisition of Aaron Rodgers. All four teams in the division seem to have a legitimate claim to the throne, whether it be Miami’s high-powered offense or the Hall of Fame coaching resume in New England via Bill Belichick – and fortunately for us, we’ll see a primetime clash between the top two betting favorites in the division right out of the gate with a matchup between the Bills and Jets on Monday night.

According to Patrick Everson, BetMGM Nevada originally opened the market for this contest as a pick’em back in mid-May, before quickly getting bet down to Bills -1.5, and then eventually Bills -2.5 by August 31st. Nationally, BetMGM opened the line at Bills -1.5, and as of Friday, they reported a 2-to-1 ticket and money count on Buffalo.

The betting market’s response to this contest certainly doesn’t come as a surprise given the boatload of question marks surrounding the Jets ahead of Week 1. However, part of me still has more confidence in rolling the dice on the uncertainties of this new-look New York squad as opposed to signing up for the rollercoaster that Buffalo has ridden the last few years.

The Bills are listed with the third-best odds on the board to win this year’s Super Bowl, and there’s no denying the potential of this squad on the shoulders of a Josh Allen led offense that’s ranked Top 3 in scoring in three straight seasons.

The problem with the Bills, though, is they always find a way to shoot themselves in the foot. Buffalo’s offense ranked 2nd in the entire league in giveaways last season, and not in the good way either, as the Colts were the only team that had more turnovers than the Bills in 2022.

Personally, I don’t feel comfortable backing either team to win this matchup. Rodgers owns a career record of 6-1-1 ATS as a home underdog, granted he played all of those games at Lambeau Field for Green Bay. Rodgers has also won nine straight Monday night games dating back to 2013. But it’s probably unwise to fully rely on trends that concern Rodgers, as the Jets are just 5-25 SU and 10-20 ATS in their last 30 division games.

This has the makings of an ugly game, in my opinion, with both teams likely stumbling out to a slow start. The Bills were occasionally exposed for their lack of offensive weaponry outside of Stefon Diggs last year, and Sauce Gardner should be able to keep him in-check for the most part. 

And on the Jets’ side of things, we’re looking at a team with a brand new offensive coordinator-quarterback combo in Rodgers and Nathaniel Hackett, and despite the duo’s history in Green Bay, let’s not act like the Packers and Broncos lit up the scoreboard for a bunch of points last season.

Both of these teams should find their footing eventually. Maybe sooner, maybe later. Regardless of your feelings about either side, though, we’re probably in for a slow start in this highly anticipated Week 1 AFC East battle. If I had to pick a side, I’d lean with the Jets at home, but my best bet is the under.

Score Prediction: Jets 21, Bills 17
Best Bet: Under 45.5 (-110)

Bills vs Jets Betting Resources

Date: Monday, September 11, 2023
Matchup: AFC East
Venue: MetLife Stadium
Location: East Rutherford, New Jersey
Time-TV: ABC, 8:15 p.m. ET

Click here for Vegas Insider senior reporter Patrick Everson's full NFL Odds Week 1 Report containing spreads, lines, and trends for every NFL matchup.

Buffalo Bills Betting Analysis

The public perception of the Bills seems to be that they are perennial Super Bowl contenders, based on the fact that this is now the second season in a row that Buffalo has opened inside of 10-to-1 to win the Super Bowl, and I’m a strong believer in the notion that this team has the ability to make a run.

But the reality is, the Bills haven’t performed well enough on the playoff stage to warrant the level of respect that the oddsmakers continue to show them in the futures department, and they especially shouldn’t be favored over teams such as the Bengals and 49ers.

The Bills will be without Von Miller in Week 1, which was a crucial blow to Buffalo’s defense down the stretch last season, but fortunately, they draw a matchup against the Jets 23rd ranked offensive line on Monday night (PFF). So, getting pressure on Rodgers shouldn’t be too much of an issue out of the gate.

New York Jets Betting Analysis

NFL fans across the globe spent a good portion of last season poking fun at Russell Wilson and the total disaster that the Broncos turned out to be in Wilson’s first campaign with the team. However, former head coach Nathaniel Hackett was also an enormous part of that dumpster fire, and lo and behold, guess who the commander-in-chief of this new-look Jets’ offense is.

Personally, I’m in on the New York hype. I think the Jets are going to be really good in the near future. However, will I be totally shocked if they stink out of the gate? No, of course not. Rodgers looked like a shell of himself last season, and the public’s preseason excitement for an offense led by Hackett in a new position feels like deja vu. 

All history aside, though, I like this Jets team on paper. But they seem to have the makings of a team that’s more likely to catch fire down the home stretch, as opposed to barrel out of the gates red hot. This could age very poorly, but we’ll see how it looks on Monday.

Bills vs Jets Betting Trends

• The Bills are 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games.
• The total has gone OVER in four of Buffalo's last five games.
• The Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games.
• The total has gone UNDER in five straight Jets' games.
• The Jets are 0-6 SU in their last six games.
• The total has gone UNDER in four of the Jets' last five games against Buffalo.
• The total has gone UNDER in four of the Jets' last five home games.
• The Bills are 5-1 SU in their last six games against the Jets.
• The total has gone UNDER in seven of Buffalo's last eight road games.

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson