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Broncos vs Bills Prediction, Picks, Odds | Monday Night Football Week 10

Michael Crosson
Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert
4 minute read

Week 10 of the NFL regular season concludes with Monday Night Football between the Denver Broncos and Buffalo Bills. Coverage begins from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park at 8:15 p.m. ET on ABC.

Here's everything you need to know about the Broncos vs Bills Picks, Predictions, and Odds for Monday Night Football Week 10, and stay tuned for more details regarding our ESPN BET promo code as we prepare for the upcoming launch!

Don't forget to check out our full list of NFL free picks if you want to bet on one of this week's upcoming games.

Broncos vs Bills Prediction, Picks & Betting Odds for Monday Night Football Week 10

Matchup Spread Total Moneyline

For the last three years or so, the NFL futures betting odds have consistently indicated that the Bills are top shelf contenders in the AFC. But year after year, they continue to disappoint in the grand scheme of things. Regardless of their relative shortcomings though, this Buffalo team rarely struggles in the regular season like they have over the last handful of weeks. 

The Bills own a record of 2-3 in their last five games, which is a stunning turn of events after finishing last season with a record of 13-3, and then proceeding to win three of their first four games to open this season. However, it appears that Buffalo’s recent skid has only added fuel to the fire in terms of the general betting audience’s confidence in the Bills. According to VegasInsider’s Patrick Everson, TwinSpires opened the line for this contest at Buffalo -7.5, and still sits at that number, despite the book taking roughly 2-to-1 counts of tickets and money on the Bills.

Personally, I agree that Sunday night has the makings of an excellent bounce back spot for Buffalo. And when the Bills win, they usually win big. But all things considered, the spread for this contest doesn’t seem to accurately reflect the solid brand of football that Denver has played since its 50-point loss to Miami.

The Broncos were the laughing stock of the league in Russell Wilson’s first campaign with the team last season, as they finished dead-last in the AFC West with a record of 5-12 behind an offense ranked 32nd in points scored and a defense ranked 14th in points allowed. However, in the first few weeks of this season, their laughable status seemed to carry over, but in a completely different way, as the Broncos stumbled out to an ugly 1-3 start under new head coach Sean Payton, while ranking 10th in points scored and 32nd in points allowed during that span.

Since that point though, everything has slowly balanced out for this Denver team. The Broncos own a record of 2-2 in their last four games, while averaging just 18 points scored and 19 points allowed during their latest stretch. While on the flip side, the Bills have scored 20 points or less in three of their last five games, and after scoring 37+ points in three of their first four matchups, Buffalo hasn’t topped 25 points since Week 4. 

According to Action Network’s Evan Abrams, the under is 22-7 in night games this season, and 62-29 over the last two years. The under is also 10-1 in the last 11 Monday Night Football matchups, and 55-28-1 on MNF since 2019. Give me the under in this spot.

Score Prediction: Bills 23, Broncos 16
Best Bet: Under 47.5 (-110)

DEN @ BUF Odds

  • Full Game
  • 1H
  • 1Q
  • 2Q
  • 3Q
  • 4Q
  • Spread
  • Total
  • Moneyline
Final
Denver Broncos 265 Broncos
+8.5 -110 +5.5 -110 +5.5 -110 +6.5 -105 +5.5 +105 +4.5 -110 +4.5 -112 +7.5 -110  
Buffalo Bills 266 Bills
-8.5 -110 -5.5 -110 -5.5 -110 -6.5 -115 -5.5 -125 -4.5 -110 -4.5 -121 -7.5 -110  
Final
Denver Broncos 265 Broncos
o46.5 -110 o23.5 -110 o23.5 -110 o23.5 -125 o23.5 -110 o23.5 -115 o23.5 -122 o47.5 -105  
Buffalo Bills 266 Bills
u46.5 -110 u23.5 -110 u23.5 -110 u23.5 +105 u23.5 -110 u23.5 -105 u23.5 -106 u47.5 -115  
Final
Denver Broncos 265 Broncos
+360 +225 +220 +300 +260 +205 +200 +310  
Buffalo Bills 266 Bills
-460 -275 -275 -380 -335 -270 -265 -390  
Final
Denver Broncos 265 Broncos
+8.5 -110 +3.5 -110 N/A N/A +2.5 +110 +3.5 -110 +3.5 -108 +7.5 -110  
Buffalo Bills 266 Bills
-8.5 -110 -3.5 -110 N/A N/A -2.5 -130 -3.5 -110 -3.5 -115 -7.5 -110  
Final
Denver Broncos 265 Broncos
o46.5 -110 o23.5 -110 N/A N/A o23.5 -110 o23.5 -110 o23.5 -114 o47.5 -105  
Buffalo Bills 266 Bills
u46.5 -110 u23.5 -110 N/A N/A u23.5 -110 u23.5 -110 u23.5 -110 u47.5 -115  
Final
Denver Broncos 265 Broncos
+360 +175 N/A N/A N/A +180 +175 +310  
Buffalo Bills 266 Bills
-460 -210 N/A N/A N/A -215 -235 -390  
Final
Denver Broncos 265 Broncos
+8.5 -110 +3 -120 +3 -115 +2.5 +105 +3 -115 +2.5 -102 +2.5 +105 +7.5 -110  
Buffalo Bills 266 Bills
-8.5 -110 -3 even -3 -110 -2.5 -125 -3 -105 -2.5 -120 -2.5 -130 -7.5 -110  
Final
Denver Broncos 265 Broncos
o46.5 -110 o9.5 -120 o9.5 -125 o9.5 -125 o9.5 -120 o7.5 -124 o9.5 -112 o47.5 -105  
Buffalo Bills 266 Bills
u46.5 -110 u9.5 even u9.5 -105 u9.5 +105 u9.5 even u7.5 +102 u9.5 -112 u47.5 -115  
Final
Denver Broncos 265 Broncos
+360 +180 +185 +195 +185 +180 +188 +310  
Buffalo Bills 266 Bills
-460 -220 -250 -238 -225 -225 -240 -390  
Final
Denver Broncos 265 Broncos
+8.5 -110 +1.5 -105 N/A +1.5 +154 N/A +3.5 -122 N/A +7.5 -110  
Buffalo Bills 266 Bills
-8.5 -110 -1.5 -115 N/A -1.5 -200 N/A -3.5 -100 N/A -7.5 -110  
Final
Denver Broncos 265 Broncos
o46.5 -110 o13.5 -115 N/A o17.5 +135 N/A o12.5 -166 N/A o47.5 -105  
Buffalo Bills 266 Bills
u46.5 -110 u13.5 -105 N/A u17.5 -175 N/A u12.5 +122 N/A u47.5 -115  
Final
Denver Broncos 265 Broncos
+360 +160 N/A +170 N/A +164 N/A +310  
Buffalo Bills 266 Bills
-460 -180 N/A -205 N/A -205 N/A -390  
Final
Denver Broncos 265 Broncos
+8.5 -110 +2.5 -115 N/A +1.5 -115 N/A +2.5 -108 N/A +7.5 -110  
Buffalo Bills 266 Bills
-8.5 -110 -2.5 -105 N/A -1.5 -105 N/A -2.5 -112 N/A -7.5 -110  
Final
Denver Broncos 265 Broncos
o46.5 -110 o9.5 -130 N/A o9.5 -118 N/A o7.5 -112 N/A o47.5 -105  
Buffalo Bills 266 Bills
u46.5 -110 u9.5 +110 N/A u9.5 -102 N/A u7.5 -118 N/A u47.5 -115  
Final
Denver Broncos 265 Broncos
+360 +160 N/A +154 N/A +154 N/A +310  
Buffalo Bills 266 Bills
-460 -180 N/A -180 N/A -192 N/A -390  
Final
Denver Broncos 265 Broncos
+8.5 -110 +2.5 -110 N/A +1.5 -115 N/A +1.5 -116 N/A +7.5 -110  
Buffalo Bills 266 Bills
-8.5 -110 -2.5 -110 N/A -1.5 -105 N/A -1.5 -106 N/A -7.5 -110  
Final
Denver Broncos 265 Broncos
o46.5 -110 o13.5 -105 N/A o13.5 -105 N/A o13.5 -116 N/A o47.5 -105  
Buffalo Bills 266 Bills
u46.5 -110 u13.5 -115 N/A u13.5 -115 N/A u13.5 -106 N/A u47.5 -115  
Final
Denver Broncos 265 Broncos
+360 +150 N/A +120 N/A +132 N/A +310  
Buffalo Bills 266 Bills
-460 -170 N/A -142 N/A -162 N/A -390  

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Broncos vs Bills Betting Resources

Date: Monday, November 13, 2023
Matchup: AFC West vs. AFC East
Venue: Highmark Stadium
Location: Orchard Park, New York
Time-TV: ABC, 8:15 p.m. ET

Click here for Vegas Insider senior reporter Patrick Everson's full NFL Odds Week 10 Report containing spreads, lines, and trends for every NFL matchup.

Use our BetMGM bonus code before making your Broncos vs. Bills pick to get bonus bets!

Denver Broncos Betting Analysis

The sledding has been tough for Denver’s offense the last few weeks. However, I must say, it has been pretty fun to see Wilson channel his younger self by pulling it down and running more often as a result of Denver’s latest offensive struggles. 

Wilson rushed for 13 yards or less in three of four contests to open the season, which didn’t exactly register as a huge surprise after averaging just 13.1 rushing yards per game in 2021 and 18.5 in 2022. But over the last few weeks, Wilson has been forced to put it all on the line for his team, considering he’s averaging 32.8 rushing yards on five carries per game across his last four outings, while clearing the 20-yard mark on the ground in all four of those contests. Keep an eye out for Wilson rushing props.

nfl-broncos-bills-monday-night-football-week-10
The Broncos are 0-7 ATS in their last seven matchups against Buffalo. (Getty)

Buffalo Bills Betting Analysis

The Bills have yielded a turnover differential of -6 over the last four weeks, and Josh Allen has been the main reason for their underperformance in that department, considering he’s thrown an interception in five straight games while also losing a fumble during that span.

At this point, turnovers are pretty much a constant part of the equation when it comes to evaluating the current iteration of this Bills team. Allen has been picked off in seven of Buffalo’s nine games this season. He’s listed at -140 to throw an INT on Monday night.

Broncos vs Bills Betting Trends

  • The Broncos are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games.
  • The total has gone OVER in nine of Denver's last 13 games.
  • The Bills are 0-5 ATS in their last five games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of Buffalo's last five games.
  • The Bills are 13-5 SU in their last 18 games.
  • The Broncos are 5-12 SU in their last 17 games.
  • The Broncos are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games against Buffalo.

Where to place a bet this NFL Season?

  • Use our exclusive BetMGM Bonus Code VIBONUS1600 to unlock BetMGM's welcome offer for new sportsbook users!
  • Compare the latest NFL Odds from the best sportsbooks before placing a bet on this week's games.
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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson
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