Sign Up Subscribe
Featured

Chiefs vs Bills Prediction, Picks, Odds | NFL Divisional Playoff Game

Michael Crosson
Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert
5 minute read
Chiefs vs Bills Prediction, Picks, Odds | NFL Divisional Playoff Game

Here's everything you need to know about the Chiefs vs Bills Picks, Predictions, and Odds for this NFL Divisional Playoff Game.

The Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs concludes on Sunday night with a highly anticipated AFC rematch between the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills. Coverage begins from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park at 6:30 p.m. ET on CBS.

ESPN BET Sportsbook is here! Use our promo code to join and claim your bonus offer!

Chiefs vs Bills Betting Prediction & Odds for NFL Divisional Playoff Game

Matchup Spread Total Moneyline

Two years ago, Kansas City and Buffalo met in the Divisional Round of the playoffs and it ended with one of the most thrilling finishes in NFL history, as both teams combined for 23 total points after the two-minute warning of the fourth quarter in an overtime loss for the Bills.

And the heartbreaking fashion in which Buffalo lost the game ultimately led to an amendment to the postseason rulebook. The Bills never possessed the ball in the overtime stanza of their 42-36 playoff loss to KC back in 2021, and the new rule states that both teams are allowed a possession, even if there is a TD scored on the opening drive.

Well, better late than never. But I don’t expect to see 20-plus points scored after the two-minute warning this time around. This is a matchup between two very different teams.

After ranking top-six in scoring and total offense in six straight campaigns, the Chiefs ranked just 15th and 9th in those categories this season, respectively. Fortunately though, they still managed to coast to a division title on the heels of a defense that ranked 2nd in both scoring and total yardage – which has been a huge change of pace for KC after ranking outside of the top-10 in scoring in four of the last six seasons.

The Chiefs offense showed a spark of life in their Wild Card Weekend matchup vs Miami, as they scored 26 points on 409 total yards against a beat-up Dolphins defense. However, if KC’s offense reverts back to its season-averages against much tougher opponents moving forward, how much longer can the Chiefs keep getting away with that type of play?

I would argue the road ends here for the Chiefs, unless they’ve truly been playing opossum all season. The Chiefs scored 21 points or less in 10 of 17 games during the regular season, and they cleared the 30-point mark on just three occasions in pushover matchups against the Bears, Chargers and Raiders.

While on the other side of that same coin, this is a Bills team that scored 24-plus points in 12 of 17 regular season matchups, while scoring 30-plus twice as many times as KC (6). And their defense has been incredibly consistent down the stretch as well, highlighted by Buffalo holding its opponent to 22 points or less in six straight games – which includes a 31-17 win over Pittsburgh on Wild Card Weekend.

If you choose to bet on KC based on the historical data, I can’t argue with the logic. The Chiefs have reached five straight AFC Championship Games – while Josh Allen has taken this Bills team past the Divisional Round just one time in his career, and has never been able to get over the hump against KC in the playoffs. But based on what we’ve seen from these two teams this season, the Chiefs should not win this game.

If not now, then when? This Bills team won’t get a better opportunity to knock off KC in the playoffs. Travis Kelce has taken a huge step back since falling in love with Taylor Swift. Their top WR is a second-round rookie out of SMU. And Patrick Mahomes is playing his first true road playoff game after years of dominating the postseason at Arrowhead.

I know, I know. It isn’t wise to bet against Mahomes in the playoffs, or as an underdog for that matter. But the current iteration of the Chiefs seems very different from the team we’ve seen in years past, and I truly believe they need to go back to the drawing board for their offensive roster construction this offseason – reshaping around Mahomes, obviously.

It’s only a matter of time before KC revamps its offense with a few more weapons for Mahomes, and the Chiefs permanently return to their elite level of play on the offensive side of the ball. The way I see it, it’s now or never for the Bills.

Score Prediction: Bills 27, Chiefs 20
Best Bet: Bills -2.5 (-120)

KC @ BUF Odds

  • Full Game
  • 1H
  • 1Q
  • 2Q
  • 3Q
  • 4Q
  • Spread
  • Total
  • Moneyline
Final
Kansas City Chiefs 317 Chiefs
+2.5 -104 +1.5 -110 +1.5 -105 +2.5 -112 +1.5 -110 +1.5 -115 +1.5 -115 +3.5 -130 +2.5 -105  
Buffalo Bills 318 Bills
-2.5 -118 -1.5 -110 -1.5 -115 -2.5 -108 -1.5 -110 -1.5 -105 -1.5 -108 -3.5 even -2.5 -115  
Final
Kansas City Chiefs 317 Chiefs
o46.5 -105 o23 -115 N/A o22.5 -115 o22.5 -110 o23.5 +110 o23.5 +102 o23.5 -115 o45.5 -115  
Buffalo Bills 318 Bills
u46.5 -115 u23 -105 N/A u22.5 -105 u22.5 -110 u23.5 -130 u23.5 -125 u23.5 -115 u45.5 -105  
Final
Kansas City Chiefs 317 Chiefs
+124 +125 +125 +124 +122 +118 +116 N/A +128  
Buffalo Bills 318 Bills
-146 -150 -155 -148 -145 -144 -143 N/A -152  
Final
Kansas City Chiefs 317 Chiefs
+2.5 -104 +0.5 -110 N/A N/A +0.5 -110 +1.5 -130 +1.5 -139 -0.5 -110 +2.5 -105  
Buffalo Bills 318 Bills
-2.5 -118 -0.5 -110 N/A N/A -0.5 -110 -1.5 +110 -1.5 +112 +0.5 -120 -2.5 -115  
Final
Kansas City Chiefs 317 Chiefs
o46.5 -105 o22.5 -110 N/A N/A o23.5 even o22.5 -120 o22.5 -115 o21.5 -120 o45.5 -115  
Buffalo Bills 318 Bills
u46.5 -115 u22.5 -110 N/A N/A u23.5 -120 u22.5 -100 u22.5 -109 u21.5 -110 u45.5 -105  
Final
Kansas City Chiefs 317 Chiefs
+124 +110 N/A N/A N/A +104 -105 N/A +128  
Buffalo Bills 318 Bills
-146 -130 N/A N/A N/A -122 -120 N/A -152  
Final
Kansas City Chiefs 317 Chiefs
+2.5 -104 +0.5 -120 +0.5 -145 +0.5 -135 +0.5 -135 +1.5 -152 +1.5 -155 +0.5 -115 +2.5 -105  
Buffalo Bills 318 Bills
-2.5 -118 -0.5 even -0.5 +110 -0.5 +114 -0.5 +115 -1.5 +124 -1.5 +125 -0.5 -115 -2.5 -115  
Final
Kansas City Chiefs 317 Chiefs
o46.5 -105 o9.5 even N/A o7.5 -110 o9.5 even o7.5 -110 o9.5 -103 o9.5 -125 o45.5 -115  
Buffalo Bills 318 Bills
u46.5 -115 u9.5 -120 N/A u7.5 -110 u9.5 -120 u7.5 -110 u9.5 -121 u9.5 -105 u45.5 -105  
Final
Kansas City Chiefs 317 Chiefs
+124 +135 +110 +110 +118 +108 +112 N/A +128  
Buffalo Bills 318 Bills
-146 -160 -145 -130 -140 -132 -137 N/A -152  
Final
Kansas City Chiefs 317 Chiefs
+2.5 -104 +0.5 -125 N/A -2.5 -140 N/A +1.5 -134 +1.5 -141 +0.5 -125 +2.5 -105  
Buffalo Bills 318 Bills
-2.5 -118 -0.5 +105 N/A +2.5 +110 N/A -1.5 +110 -1.5 +114 -0.5 -105 -2.5 -115  
Final
Kansas City Chiefs 317 Chiefs
o46.5 -105 o13.5 -105 N/A o20.5 +124 N/A o17.5 +120 o13.5 -118 o13.5 -120 o45.5 -115  
Buffalo Bills 318 Bills
u46.5 -115 u13.5 -115 N/A u20.5 -160 N/A u17.5 -164 u13.5 -106 u13.5 -110 u45.5 -105  
Final
Kansas City Chiefs 317 Chiefs
+124 +110 N/A +114 N/A +106 +102 N/A +128  
Buffalo Bills 318 Bills
-146 -130 N/A -135 N/A -130 -125 N/A -152  
Final
Kansas City Chiefs 317 Chiefs
+2.5 -104 +0.5 -165 N/A +0.5 -155 N/A +1.5 -170 +1.5 -175 +0.5 -160 +2.5 -105  
Buffalo Bills 318 Bills
-2.5 -118 -0.5 +140 N/A -0.5 +130 N/A -1.5 +138 -1.5 +138 -0.5 +120 -2.5 -115  
Final
Kansas City Chiefs 317 Chiefs
o46.5 -105 o9.5 -110 N/A o9.5 -115 N/A o13.5 -190 o9.5 -115 o9.5 -115 o45.5 -115  
Buffalo Bills 318 Bills
u46.5 -115 u9.5 -110 N/A u9.5 -105 N/A u13.5 +140 u9.5 -108 u9.5 -115 u45.5 -105  
Final
Kansas City Chiefs 317 Chiefs
+124 even N/A -105 N/A -105 -108 N/A +128  
Buffalo Bills 318 Bills
-146 -120 N/A -115 N/A -115 -115 N/A -152  
Final
Kansas City Chiefs 317 Chiefs
+2.5 -104 +0.5 -135 N/A +0.5 -122 N/A +1.5 -156 +1.5 -152 +0.5 -135 +2.5 -105  
Buffalo Bills 318 Bills
-2.5 -118 -0.5 +115 N/A -0.5 +102 N/A -1.5 +128 -1.5 +123 -0.5 +105 -2.5 -115  
Final
Kansas City Chiefs 317 Chiefs
o46.5 -105 o13.5 -105 N/A o13.5 -105 N/A o13.5 -100 o13.5 +102 o13.5 -115 o45.5 -115  
Buffalo Bills 318 Bills
u46.5 -115 u13.5 -115 N/A u13.5 -115 N/A u13.5 -122 u13.5 -127 u13.5 -115 u45.5 -105  
Final
Kansas City Chiefs 317 Chiefs
+124 even N/A +105 N/A -104 -106 N/A +128  
Buffalo Bills 318 Bills
-146 -120 N/A -125 N/A -118 -118 N/A -152  

Maximize your Chiefs vs Bills action with our Caesars Sportsbook promo code!

Chiefs vs Bills Betting Resources

Date: Sunday, January 21
Matchup: AFC West vs AFC East
Venue: Highmark Stadium
Location: Orchard Park, NY
Time-TV: CBS, 6:30 p.m. ET

Click here for Vegas Insider senior reporter Patrick Everson's full NFL Odds Divisional Playoff Round Report containing spreads, lines, and trends for every NFL matchup.

Use our BetMGM bonus code before making your Chiefs vs Bills pick to get bonus bets!

Kansas City Chiefs Betting Analysis

At this point, even the most casual football fans are familiar with the prolonged success of Kansas City with Patrick Mahomes at the helm. The Chiefs have won eight straight division titles, and they’ve participated in five straight AFC Championship Games – while winning two Super Bowls during that span.

However, if you are a casual fan tuning in for the first time this season, let me be the first to warn you: this Chiefs team is much different than the team that has reached five straight conference title games – in fact, we’ve never even seen Mahomes play a true road playoff game prior to this contest.

Check out our Super Bowl odds for a preview of the teams likely to be in the big game.

Buffalo Bills Betting Analysis

In the first matchup of the season between these teams, the Chiefs appeared to score the potential game-winning touchdown with less than 1:30 left in the fourth quarter on a brilliant play that saw Mahomes and Kelce connect on a pass downfield, which Kelce then lateraled across the field to Kadarius Toney for a score.

There was one problem though. Toney was flagged for an offensive offside penalty. So the play didn’t stand, and the Chiefs’ final drive stalled out – resulting in a loss for KC.

They always say, “It’s a game of inches.” – and the first matchup of the season between these teams was a literal example of that. If Toney would’ve lined up a few inches backward on that game-winning play, this matchup would probably be taking place at Arrowhead.

Chiefs vs Bills Betting Trends

  • The total has gone UNDER in five of KC's last six games.
  • The Chiefs are 4-1 SU in their last five games.
  • The Bills are 4-2 ATS in their last six games.
  • The Bills are 6-0 SU in their last six games.
  • The Chiefs are 10-2 SU in their last 12 road games.

Ready to bet on NFL action? Use our Fanduel promo code to get bonus bets when you do!

Featured News

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson
•