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Chiefs vs Ravens Prediction, Picks, Odds | AFC Championship Game

Michael Crosson
Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert
4 minute read
Chiefs vs Ravens Prediction, Picks, Odds | AFC Championship Game

Here's everything you need to know about the Chiefs vs Ravens Picks, Prediction, and Odds for this year’s AFC Championship Game.

The Conference Round of the NFL Playoffs kicks things off on Sunday mid-afternoon as the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship. Coverage begins from M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore at 3:00 p.m. ET on CBS.

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Chiefs vs Ravens Betting Prediction & Odds for AFC Championship Game

Matchup Spread Total Moneyline

Well, here we go again. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will play in their sixth straight AFC Championship Game this Sunday. However, this time it will be a little bit different as Kansas City hits the road in the Conference Round for the first time in the Mahomes era.

Making a pick for this matchup was really difficult for me. The analytical side of my brain knows the Ravens have been much better than KC all season – and they showed no signs of slowing down in the Divisional Round either as they cruised to a 34-10 win over Houston last week.

However, the emotional knee-jerky part of my brain also knows that it’s never wise to bet against the Chiefs in the postseason, especially after looking really good in back-to-back playoff wins over Miami and Buffalo. KC is now 13-3 in the playoffs with Mahomes under center. So is it really worth going out of the way to doubt this Chiefs team?

In last week’s Chiefs vs Bills matchup, I opted to trust the analytical side of my brain by backing Buffalo – and quite frankly, the Bills played an excellent football game as they outgained KC in the total yardage department 368 to 371 and totally dominated time of possession 37 minutes to 23 – and they had a real chance of winning it in the closing moments.

Even the weird random factors leaned toward Buffalo last week, aside from the kicking game of course. The Bills made it through the entire contest with zero turnovers except for a failed fake punt attempt on their own 25-yard line  – recovering two of their own fumbles. While the Chiefs seemed to catch the brunt of the bad luck by having a TD taken off the board due to Mecole Hardman fumbling through the endzone on a 1st-and-goal rush attempt from the 3-yard line. But KC still prevailed in the end.

Baltimore is probably the smart play in this spot. But I simply won’t be able to sleep at night if I lose money betting against KC in a second straight playoff game. Sometimes you just have to trust your gut. If the Chiefs get thoroughly outplayed like they did at several different points throughout the season, so be it. But I expect the defending champs to show up in prime form again this week – which is more than enough to keep this game within a field goal. I’m taking the points with KC.

Score Prediction: Chiefs 26, Ravens 23
Best Bet: Chiefs +3.5 (-105)

KC @ BAL Odds

  • Full Game
  • 1H
  • 1Q
  • 2Q
  • 3Q
  • 4Q
  • Spread
  • Total
  • Moneyline
Final
Kansas City Chiefs 319 Chiefs
+3.5 -115 +3 even +3 +105 +4.5 -120 +3 even +3.5 -100 +3.5 -120 +3.5 -105 +4.5 -112  
Baltimore Ravens 320 Ravens
-3.5 -105 -3 -120 -3 -125 -4.5 even -3 -120 -3.5 -120 -3.5 -105 -3.5 -125 -4.5 -108  
Final
Kansas City Chiefs 319 Chiefs
o45 -110 o21.5 -110 N/A o22.5 -108 o21.5 -115 o22.5 -100 o22.5 -113 o21.5 -115 o44.5 -102  
Baltimore Ravens 320 Ravens
u45 -110 u21.5 -110 N/A u22.5 -112 u21.5 -105 u22.5 -120 u22.5 -110 u21.5 -115 u44.5 -120  
Final
Kansas City Chiefs 319 Chiefs
+148 +175 +170 +195 +170 +178 +165 N/A +190  
Baltimore Ravens 320 Ravens
-176 -210 -210 -238 -205 -220 -215 N/A -230  
Final
Kansas City Chiefs 319 Chiefs
+3.5 -115 +2.5 -110 N/A N/A +1.5 -105 +1.5 -120 +1.5 -122 +0.5 -110 +4.5 -112  
Baltimore Ravens 320 Ravens
-3.5 -105 -2.5 -110 N/A N/A -1.5 -115 -1.5 -100 -1.5 -103 -0.5 -120 -4.5 -108  
Final
Kansas City Chiefs 319 Chiefs
o45 -110 o21.5 -110 N/A N/A o21.5 -105 o21.5 -110 o21.5 -108 o22.5 -110 o44.5 -102  
Baltimore Ravens 320 Ravens
u45 -110 u21.5 -110 N/A N/A u21.5 -115 u21.5 -110 u21.5 -115 u22.5 -120 u44.5 -120  
Final
Kansas City Chiefs 319 Chiefs
+148 +130 N/A N/A N/A +112 +115 N/A +190  
Baltimore Ravens 320 Ravens
-176 -155 N/A N/A N/A -130 -143 N/A -230  
Final
Kansas City Chiefs 319 Chiefs
+3.5 -115 +0.5 -135 +0.5 -110 +0.5 -115 +0.5 -110 +1.5 -132 +1.5 -114 +2.5 -110 +4.5 -112  
Baltimore Ravens 320 Ravens
-3.5 -105 -0.5 +115 -0.5 -110 -0.5 -105 -0.5 -110 -1.5 +108 -1.5 -109 -2.5 -120 -4.5 -108  
Final
Kansas City Chiefs 319 Chiefs
o45 -110 o7.5 -110 N/A o7.5 -105 o7.5 -110 o7.5 -102 o9.5 -108 o7.5 -110 o44.5 -102  
Baltimore Ravens 320 Ravens
u45 -110 u7.5 -110 N/A u7.5 -115 u7.5 -110 u7.5 -118 u9.5 -114 u7.5 -120 u44.5 -120  
Final
Kansas City Chiefs 319 Chiefs
+148 +125 +145 +145 +143 +132 +160 N/A +190  
Baltimore Ravens 320 Ravens
-176 -150 -175 -175 -170 -162 -205 N/A -230  
Final
Kansas City Chiefs 319 Chiefs
+3.5 -115 +0.5 -105 N/A -7.5 +150 N/A +1.5 -114 +1.5 -117 +2.5 -110 +4.5 -112  
Baltimore Ravens 320 Ravens
-3.5 -105 -0.5 -115 N/A +7.5 -195 N/A -1.5 -108 -1.5 -106 -2.5 -120 -4.5 -108  
Final
Kansas City Chiefs 319 Chiefs
o45 -110 o13.5 +115 N/A o10.5 +114 N/A o16.5 -172 o13.5 -107 o13.5 +110 o44.5 -102  
Baltimore Ravens 320 Ravens
u45 -110 u13.5 -135 N/A u10.5 -145 N/A u16.5 +126 u13.5 -117 u13.5 -140 u44.5 -120  
Final
Kansas City Chiefs 319 Chiefs
+148 +140 N/A +142 N/A +128 +123 N/A +190  
Baltimore Ravens 320 Ravens
-176 -165 N/A -170 N/A -158 -155 N/A -230  
Final
Kansas City Chiefs 319 Chiefs
+3.5 -115 +0.5 -115 N/A +0.5 -130 N/A +1.5 -142 +1.5 -175 +0.5 -135 +4.5 -112  
Baltimore Ravens 320 Ravens
-3.5 -105 -0.5 -105 N/A -0.5 +110 N/A -1.5 +116 -1.5 +138 -0.5 +105 -4.5 -108  
Final
Kansas City Chiefs 319 Chiefs
o45 -110 o9.5 -105 N/A o8.5 -112 N/A o3.5 +118 o9.5 -117 o9.5 -110 o44.5 -102  
Baltimore Ravens 320 Ravens
u45 -110 u9.5 -115 N/A u8.5 -108 N/A u3.5 -160 u9.5 -107 u9.5 -120 u44.5 -120  
Final
Kansas City Chiefs 319 Chiefs
+148 +135 N/A +120 N/A +116 -103 N/A +190  
Baltimore Ravens 320 Ravens
-176 -160 N/A -142 N/A -142 -122 N/A -230  
Final
Kansas City Chiefs 319 Chiefs
+3.5 -115 +0.5 -120 N/A +0.5 -115 N/A +1.5 -132 +1.5 -136 +0.5 -120 +4.5 -112  
Baltimore Ravens 320 Ravens
-3.5 -105 -0.5 even N/A -0.5 -105 N/A -1.5 +108 -1.5 +108 -0.5 -110 -4.5 -108  
Final
Kansas City Chiefs 319 Chiefs
o45 -110 o13.5 +110 N/A o12.5 -122 N/A o12.5 -118 o11.5 -121 o12.5 -135 o44.5 -102  
Baltimore Ravens 320 Ravens
u45 -110 u13.5 -130 N/A u12.5 +102 N/A u12.5 -104 u11.5 -106 u12.5 +105 u44.5 -120  
Final
Kansas City Chiefs 319 Chiefs
+148 +110 N/A +114 N/A +114 +114 N/A +190  
Baltimore Ravens 320 Ravens
-176 -130 N/A -135 N/A -140 -141 N/A -230  

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Chiefs vs Ravens Betting Resources

Date: Sunday, January 28
Matchup: AFC West vs AFC North
Venue: M&T Bank Stadium
Location: Baltimore, MD
Time-TV: CBS, 3:00 p.m. ET

Click here for Vegas Insider senior reporter Patrick Everson's full NFL Conference Playoffs Odds Report containing spreads, lines, and trends for every NFL matchup.

Use our BetMGM bonus code before making your Chiefs vs Ravens pick to get bonus bets!

Kansas City Chiefs Betting Analysis

Mahomes is having the worst campaign of his professional career by a pretty significant margin. He finished the regular season with career-low averages in passing yards per game, touchdown passes per game, yards per attempt, yards per completion, passing success rate and more – along with a career-high in interceptions.

That said, however, I think we’ll see Andy Reid trust his QB’s arm at the goal line more than usual in this contest after having a TD taken off the board last week due to Hardman fumbling through the endzone on 1st-and-goal. 

No more messing around in the red zone. Put the ball in the hands of the best player, and let him do his thing.

Check out our Super Bowl odds for a preview of the teams likely to be in the big game.

Baltimore Ravens Betting Analysis

Lamar has quickly reached new heights as a passer this season, which has put little bit of a dent in his overall rushing numbers as he cleared the 60-yard rushing mark in just 5-of-16 regular season outings – after averaging over 60 rushing yards per game in four straight campaigns prior to this season.

Make no mistake about it though. He’s still very willing to pull it down and run whenever the opportunity presents itself. Lamar recorded 10-plus carries in 7-of-16 regular season outings – and he reminded us of his willingness to run again last week by rushing 11 times for 100 yards in a win over Houston in the Divisional Round.

This line may be 10 yards higher than Lamar’s season average, but there’s a good reason for that. It’s all hands on deck against KC in the AFC Championship Game. I expect to see the Ravens throw the kitchen sink at them from a rushing standpoint.

Chiefs vs Ravens Betting Trends

  • The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
  • The Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
  • The Ravens are 7-1 SU in their last eight games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of KC's last five games.
  • The Chiefs are 5-1 SU in their last six games.

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson
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