2025 Circa Survivor Pool: Falcons, Bengals Losses Wreak Havoc in Week 8
Circa Survivor is through Week 8, but not without a boatload of damage done to the field.
The Atlanta Falcons and Cincinnati Bengals fell apart. And with those breakdowns, more than half of the remaining field was eliminated in 2025 Circa Survivor.
Read on for the latest on Circa Survivor and its record $18.7 million pot, and check back regularly for updates throughout the season. And remember, VegasInsider is your source for all things NFL odds.
(Feature image: Mark Konezny/Imagn Images)
2025 Circa Survivor
Survive and Advance
LATEST UPDATE: It's been a couple weeks, but carnage has returned to Circa Survivor. The Atlanta Falcons were the second-most-picked team in Week 8, taken on 1,387 entries. That was only slightly behind the Indianapolis Colts' 1,452.
But Atlanta got blown off its home field by Miami, losing 34-10 Sunday. The Falcons were without Michael Penix (knee), yet were still 7-point favorites with Kirk Cousins under center. Atlanta never led and in fact was down 34-3 midway through the fourth quarter.
"Backup QBs don't make it easier on players. Oof of a performance," Circa Sports director of sportsbook operations Jeff Benson said.
The Falcons' loss knocked out 32.9% of the remaining 4,210 entries. And minutes later, the New York Jets completed a stunning comeback vs. the Cincinnati Bengals, posting a 39-38 upset. The Jets were 5.5-point 'dogs and trailed 38-24 with 10:21 remaining in the fourth quarter.
It was New York's first win of the season. Cincinnati was the third-most-picked team, taken on 765 entries. So between the Falcons and Bengals, 51% of the remaining field was vaporized in Sunday's early window.
"Two massive upsets, mixed in with a big run of favorites winning and covering. Only 11% of the original pool is alive, with 12 weeks to go," Benson said, alluding to the record total of 18,718 entries.
And as Benson also alluded to, there are 12 weeks remaining: the usual Weeks 9-18, Thanksgiving Day/Black Friday and Christmas Day.
Surprisingly, beyond the Falcons and Bengals, only one other entry was eliminated in Week 8 games: A contestant had the San Francisco 49ers, who lost to the Houston Texans 26-15. So the total loss was 2,157 entries.
Week 8 actually began with 4,214 entries, but four entries failed to get a pick in by the 4 p.m. PT Saturday deadline. That makes 98 entries eliminated this season by way of missing the deadline.
As noted above, the season began with 18,718 entries in Circa Survivor, at $1,000 apiece, for a whopping $18.718 million prize pool. There are 2,057 entries remaining, with an implied value for each of $9,100, more than double the value of a week ago.
Check back later for more Circa Survivor Week 9 updates. And for more insights, hit our NFL Odds Week 9 report.
Circa Survivor Grandissimo
LATEST UPDATE: Of the 69 entries that ponied up $100,000 apiece, for a $6.9 million prize pool, only 15 remained in Circa Survivor Grandissimo heading into Week 8. Two of those entries were snuffed out by the Falcons' upset loss to the Dolphins.
Nine entries took the Colts, two took the Patriots, and the Eagles and Chiefs got one pick apiece. So those 13 entries advance to Week 9. The implied value of each of the remaining Survivor Grandissimo entries is $530,769.
Circa Million
LATEST UPDATE: Like last year, Circa Million remains at a $6 million guaranteed pot. And like last year, Circa Sports is absorbing overlay. The 2025 Circa Million reached 5,685 entries ($5.685 million), so the overlay is $315,000.
Circa Million calls for entrants to make five NFL picks each week against the spread. After Week 8, one entry is atop the entire heap, with a 31-9 record. In second is one entry at 30-10, followed by a six-way tie for third at 29-11.
As always, it's worth noting that at season's end, Circa Million pays out $100,000 to the contestant with the worst record and $50,000 to the entrant with the second-worst mark. At the moment, eight entries are tied for last at 9-31.
And in a wildly interesting tidbit on that eight-way tie: One contestant owns five of those entries.
Previous Circa Survivor Updates
Click here to see our prior Circa Survivor updates
Natural Progression
UPDATE THURSDAY, MAY 22: In 2024, Circa Sports guaranteed $10 million to the winner of its Survivor contest. So the question was: Would there be 10,000 entries, to cover the cost of that guarantee?
The answer was a resounding yes, with 14,266 entries, which actually took the prize pool to $14.266 million. Eight entries went 20-for-20 to split that massive pot.
So Stevens was fine bumping this season's Circa Survivor guarantee to $15 million. Jeff Benson, director of sportsbook operations for Circa Sports, deemed it a natural progression for the contest's sixth season.
"Survivor has seen huge growth for us. We just felt growing the number from $10 million guaranteed to $15 million guaranteed makes sense for us," Benson said.
To remind: While the NFL season has only 18 weeks, Circa Survivor raises the level of difficulty by making Thanksgiving Day and Christmas their own separate weeks. So it takes 20 successful picks to survive the season.
Another Big Leap
UPDATE THURSDAY, MAY 22: The guarantee means Circa needs at least 15,000 entries to cover its cost. Benson has zero concern about hitting that number and in fact expects another big leap in the number of entries.
Each contestant can have up to 10 entries. Many contestants put in at least two or three entries, and some go the full 10. With $15 million on the line, laying out $5,000 or $10,000 might seem worth it, for what amounts to a season's worth of NFL betting – if you can stay alive.
“I think we’ll approach 20,000 in terms of number of entries," Benson said. "Last year, we grew about 5,000 entries. I could see us growing somewhere in a similar vein.”
If that happens, then the purse approaches a whopping $20 million.
Circa Grandissimo
UPDATE THURSDAY, MAY 22: This year, Circa is adding a second Survivor contest: Circa Grandissimo. It's high stakes, at $100,000 per entry, maximum two entries. And the guaranteed prize pool is $1.5 million.
Benson said the timing is right for such a contest.
"Circa Survivor has been super popular, where we’ve seen growth in the five years we’ve done it. Obviously, we didn’t want to do anything to cannibalize Circa Survivor," Benson said. "So we wanted something that was at a different price point, and that maybe felt much more exclusive and high-end.
"Obviously, people have been clamoring for a high-end Survivor contest for a long time."
And all Circa needs is 15 entries to cover the guarantee.
“I think we’ll probably get 15. We’ve already had somebody reach out who’s gonna be here [Friday], signing up for the $100,000," Benson said.
So there's now Circa Survivor, which could have 20,000 entries, and on the complete opposite end, Circa Grandissimo, with perhaps 20-30 entries. Benson is intrigued to see how the high-stakes contest plays out.
“When you’re playing against a smaller group of people than the thousands that will be in Circa Survivor, you’re thinking about the game theory that’s behind that," he said. "So it’ll be interesting to see how people approach playing Circa Grandissimo vs. how they approach Circa Survivor.”
Circa Million
UPDATE THURSDAY, MAY 22: Circa Million was the contest that started it all for Circa Sports, six seasons ago. So of course, it's back for a seventh year. Circa Million is a picks contest, five plays each week against the spread.
Like Circa Survivor, it's $1,000 per entry, maximum 10 entries. In 2024, Stevens made the Circa Million guarantee $6 million, and the number of entries came up just short of covering the cost.
So Circa decided to stick with $6 million again this year, with the season-long winner guaranteed $1 million.
"Last year, we had 5,817 entries, so not quite to that 6,000 mark. But certainly pretty big growth, up about 400 people vs. the previous year," Benson said. "I think we’ll get 6,000 this year, and then maybe we can talk about an increased guarantee in the Million in future years."
Note that all three contests are only available in Nevada. So if you want to get involved, then you've got to make the trip to Las Vegas to get signed up and to arrange for a proxy service.