2025 Circa Survivor Pool: Key Favorites Keep Vast Majority Alive
Last year, Circa Survivor got turned on its head by stunning upsets over the first two weeks. Week 1 alone eliminated almost 40% of entrants.
In the 2025 Circa Survivor contest, more than 7,000 entries had to sweat out the Denver Broncos in Week 1. In Week 2, thousands of Dallas Cowboys backers perspired profusely before prevailing. And the field remains largely intact.
Read on for the latest on 2025 Circa Survivor and its record $18.7 million pot, and check back regularly for updates throughout the season. And remember, VegasInsider is your source for all things NFL odds.
(Feature image: Joe Camporeale/Imagn Images)
2025 Circa Survivor
Survive and Advance
WEEK 2 UPDATE: The season began with 18,718 entries in Circa Survivor, at $1,000 apiece, for a whopping $18.718 million prize pool. In Week 2, 18,145 entries remained, and 3,506 of those took the Dallas Cowboys.
Dallas closed as a 4.5-point home favorite vs. the New York Giants. All the Cowboys needed to do was win. But it proved to be a tall ask.
Dallas need a 64-yard Brandon Aubrey field goal in the waning seconds just to tie it at 37. Then Aubrey hit a 46-yarder as time expired in overtime, giving the Cowboys a 40-37 win.
"A sweat of a lifetime. An unbelievable roller-coaster ride," Circa Sports director of sportsbook operations Jeff Benson said. "Years are taken off some lives for sure. But that is the beauty of the contest."
A Cowboys loss would've eliminated almost 20% of the field.
The Arizona Cardinals were the most-selected team in Week 2, at 5,169. Arizona held off Carolina 27-22. The Baltimore Ravens were the selection of 4,420 entries, and they rolled over Cleveland 41-17.
With 1,180 entries eliminated, Week 2 did more damage than Week 1. However, 93.5% of Week 2 Circa Survivor entries advanced, and 90.6% of the original field of 18,718 remains alive.
"Favorites continue to win at a shocking rate. But with this contest, carnage can be around the corner at any week," Benson said.
Indeed, the top five selections – Cardinals, Ravens, Cowboys, Rams, Lions – accounted for 15,677 picks, and all five got there.
A couple key favorites did falter in Week 2: The Pittsburgh Steelers' 31-17 home loss to the Seattle Seahawks led the way, knocking out 491 entries. The Minnesota Vikings' 22-6 home loss to the Atlanta Falcons eliminated another 355 entries.
Losses by the Miami Dolphins (147) and Houston Texans (104) took out another 251 entries.
Also eliminated were 19 entries who failed to submit by the 4 p.m. PT Saturday deadline. Through two weeks, 43 entries didn't get their pick in on time.
Check back later this week for a Circa Survivor Week 3 update. And for more insights, hit our NFL Odds Week 3 report.
Circa Survivor Grandissimo
WEEK 2 UPDATE: As noted below, all 69 entries in the $100,000 per-entry Circa Survivor Grandissimo made it to Week 2. And only nine teams were chosen for this week, led by Baltimore.
- Baltimore Ravens 26
- Arizona Cardinals 16
- Dallas Cowboys 10
- Detroit Lions 7
- Los Angeles Rams 6
All five won, again with Dallas the only nailbiter. The Bills, 49ers and Chargers were each taken on one entry and won.
And one entry bowed out with the Steelers' loss.
Circa Million
WEEK 2 UPDATE: Like last year, Circa Million remains at a $6 million guaranteed pot. And like last year, Circa Sports is absorbing overlay. In 2024, there were 5,817 entries at $1,000 apiece ($5.817 million), so Circa had to pull just shy of $200,000 out its own pocket to meet the guarantee.
The 2025 Circa Million reached 5,685 entries ($5.685 million), so the overlay is $315,000.
Circa Million calls for entrants to make five NFL picks each week against the spread. In Week 1, 49 entries went a perfect 5-0, while 433 went 4-1. However, no one is perfect through two weeks, with 24 entries tied for first at 9-1.
On the flip side, nine entries are tied for last at 0-10 in their Circa Million picks. That's not necessarily a bad thing. Circa Million awards $100,000 to the contestant who finishes dead last, and $50,000 to the contestant who finishes second-to-last.
Previous Circa Survivor Updates
Click here to see our prior Circa Survivor updates
Natural Progression
UPDATE THURSDAY, MAY 22: In 2024, Circa Sports guaranteed $10 million to the winner of its Survivor contest. So the question was: Would there be 10,000 entries, to cover the cost of that guarantee?
The answer was a resounding yes, with 14,266 entries, which actually took the prize pool to $14.266 million. Eight entries went 20-for-20 to split that massive pot.
So Stevens was fine bumping this season's Circa Survivor guarantee to $15 million. Jeff Benson, director of sportsbook operations for Circa Sports, deemed it a natural progression for the contest's sixth season.
"Survivor has seen huge growth for us. We just felt growing the number from $10 million guaranteed to $15 million guaranteed makes sense for us," Benson said.
To remind: While the NFL season has only 18 weeks, Circa Survivor raises the level of difficulty by making Thanksgiving Day and Christmas their own separate weeks. So it takes 20 successful picks to survive the season.
Another Big Leap
UPDATE THURSDAY, MAY 22: The guarantee means Circa needs at least 15,000 entries to cover its cost. Benson has zero concern about hitting that number and in fact expects another big leap in the number of entries.
Each contestant can have up to 10 entries. Many contestants put in at least two or three entries, and some go the full 10. With $15 million on the line, laying out $5,000 or $10,000 might seem worth it, for what amounts to a season's worth of NFL betting – if you can stay alive.
“I think we’ll approach 20,000 in terms of number of entries," Benson said. "Last year, we grew about 5,000 entries. I could see us growing somewhere in a similar vein.”
If that happens, then the purse approaches a whopping $20 million.
Circa Grandissimo
UPDATE THURSDAY, MAY 22: This year, Circa is adding a second Survivor contest: Circa Grandissimo. It's high stakes, at $100,000 per entry, maximum two entries. And the guaranteed prize pool is $1.5 million.
Benson said the timing is right for such a contest.
"Circa Survivor has been super popular, where we’ve seen growth in the five years we’ve done it. Obviously, we didn’t want to do anything to cannibalize Circa Survivor," Benson said. "So we wanted something that was at a different price point, and that maybe felt much more exclusive and high-end.
"Obviously, people have been clamoring for a high-end Survivor contest for a long time."
And all Circa needs is 15 entries to cover the guarantee.
“I think we’ll probably get 15. We’ve already had somebody reach out who’s gonna be here [Friday], signing up for the $100,000," Benson said.
So there's now Circa Survivor, which could have 20,000 entries, and on the complete opposite end, Circa Grandissimo, with perhaps 20-30 entries. Benson is intrigued to see how the high-stakes contest plays out.
“When you’re playing against a smaller group of people than the thousands that will be in Circa Survivor, you’re thinking about the game theory that’s behind that," he said. "So it’ll be interesting to see how people approach playing Circa Grandissimo vs. how they approach Circa Survivor.”
Circa Million
UPDATE THURSDAY, MAY 22: Circa Million was the contest that started it all for Circa Sports, six seasons ago. So of course, it's back for a seventh year. Circa Million is a picks contest, five plays each week against the spread.
Like Circa Survivor, it's $1,000 per entry, maximum 10 entries. In 2024, Stevens made the Circa Million guarantee $6 million, and the number of entries came up just short of covering the cost.
So Circa decided to stick with $6 million again this year, with the season-long winner guaranteed $1 million.
"Last year, we had 5,817 entries, so not quite to that 6,000 mark. But certainly pretty big growth, up about 400 people vs. the previous year," Benson said. "I think we’ll get 6,000 this year, and then maybe we can talk about an increased guarantee in the Million in future years."
Note that all three contests are only available in Nevada. So if you want to get involved, then you've got to make the trip to Las Vegas to get signed up and to arrange for a proxy service.