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Dolphins vs Chiefs Prediction, Picks, Odds | NFL Wild Card Game

Michael Crosson
Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert
3 minute read
Dolphins vs Chiefs Prediction, Picks, Odds | NFL Wild Card Game

Here's everything you need to know about the Dolphins vs. Chiefs Picks, Predictions, and Odds for this NFL Wild Card Game.

NFL Super Wild Card Weekend resumes on Sunday night with a highly anticipated rematch in the AFC between the Miami Dolphins and Kansas City Chiefs. Coverage begins from Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City at 8:00 p.m. ET on Peacock.

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Dolphins vs Chiefs Betting Prediction & Odds | NFL Wild Card Game

Matchup Spread Total Moneyline
Chiefs vs
Dolphins 		-4.5 (-115)
+4.5 (-105) 		o43.5 (-105)
u43.5 (-115) 		-240
+194

At this point, even the most casual football fans are familiar with the prolonged success of Kansas City with Patrick Mahomes at the helm. The Chiefs have won eight straight division titles, and they’ve participated in five straight AFC Championship Games – while winning two Super Bowls during that timespan.

However, if you are a casual fan tuning in for the first time this season, let me be the first to warn you: this Chiefs team is much different than the team that has reached five straight conference title games. 

After ranking top-six in scoring and total offense in six straight campaigns, the Chiefs ranked just 15th and 9th in those categories this season, respectively. Fortunately though, they still managed to coast to a division title on the heels of a defense that ranked 2nd in both scoring and total yardage – which has been a huge change of pace for KC after ranking outside of the top-10 in scoring in four of the last six seasons.

For a variety of reasons, however, Miami actually reminds me more of the high-powered Kansas City teams from years past than the current iteration of the Chiefs. The Dolphins finished the season ranked 2nd in scoring and 1st in total offense, while on the other side of the ball ranking 22nd in points allowed and 10th in total yardage – and not to mention, they also snagged KC’s top wide receiver from that era, Tyreek Hill.  

That said, the biggest difference between the Kansas City teams of years past and this year’s Miami team is the talent gap at QB between Patrick Mahomes and Tua Tagovailoa. Mahomes used to be able to put the team on his back and carry KC to victory in shootouts when Hill and Kelce were both by his side, whereas Tua continues to fold under pressure in big moments despite the plethora of weaponry at his disposal. 

The weather forecast is calling for wind chills nearing 0 degrees on Saturday night. I expect both QBs to struggle in an ugly game. But the total is too low in my opinion. So push comes to shove: I’m going to trust the better QB to make more plays in a home playoff game.

Score Prediction: Chiefs 23, Dolphins 16
Best Bet: Chiefs -3.5 (-110)

MIA @ KC Odds

  • Full Game
  • 1H
  • 1Q
  • 2Q
  • 3Q
  • 4Q
  • Spread
  • Total
  • Moneyline
Final
Miami Dolphins 143 Dolphins
+1.5 -105 +3 -105 +3 -105 +3.5 -120 +3 even +3.5 -130 +2.5 even +4.5 -105  
Kansas City Chiefs 144 Chiefs
-1.5 -115 -3 -115 -3 -115 -3.5 even -3 -120 -3.5 +110 -2.5 -124 -4.5 -115  
Final
Miami Dolphins 143 Dolphins
o47.5 -110 o21 -115 N/A o21.5 even o21 -105 o20.5 -110 o21.5 even o43.5 -105  
Kansas City Chiefs 144 Chiefs
u47.5 -110 u21 -105 N/A u21.5 -120 u21 -115 u20.5 -110 u21.5 -124 u43.5 -115  
Final
Miami Dolphins 143 Dolphins
+108 +165 +155 +170 +170 +162 +138 +194  
Kansas City Chiefs 144 Chiefs
-126 -200 -190 -205 -205 -198 -177 -240  
Final
Miami Dolphins 143 Dolphins
+1.5 -105 +0.5 even N/A N/A +1.5 -115 +2.5 -105 +1.5 -107 +4.5 -105  
Kansas City Chiefs 144 Chiefs
-1.5 -115 -0.5 -120 N/A N/A -1.5 -105 -2.5 -115 -1.5 -115 -4.5 -115  
Final
Miami Dolphins 143 Dolphins
o47.5 -110 o21.5 -105 N/A N/A o21.5 +105 o20.5 -120 o21.5 -104 o43.5 -105  
Kansas City Chiefs 144 Chiefs
u47.5 -110 u21.5 -115 N/A N/A u21.5 -125 u20.5 -100 u21.5 -121 u43.5 -115  
Final
Miami Dolphins 143 Dolphins
+108 +120 N/A N/A N/A +140 +128 +194  
Kansas City Chiefs 144 Chiefs
-126 -140 N/A N/A N/A -164 -159 -240  
Final
Miami Dolphins 143 Dolphins
+1.5 -105 +0.5 -125 +0.5 -130 +0.5 -118 +0.5 -125 +1.5 -138 +1.5 -127 +4.5 -105  
Kansas City Chiefs 144 Chiefs
-1.5 -115 -0.5 +105 -0.5 even -0.5 -102 -0.5 +105 -1.5 +114 -1.5 +102 -4.5 -115  
Final
Miami Dolphins 143 Dolphins
o47.5 -110 o7.5 +105 N/A o7.5 -108 o7.5 +105 o7.5 +106 o7.5 -106 o43.5 -105  
Kansas City Chiefs 144 Chiefs
u47.5 -110 u7.5 -125 N/A u7.5 -112 u7.5 -125 u7.5 -128 u7.5 -117 u43.5 -115  
Final
Miami Dolphins 143 Dolphins
+108 +145 +135 +140 +143 +142 +138 +194  
Kansas City Chiefs 144 Chiefs
-126 -170 -175 -166 -170 -176 -175 -240  
Final
Miami Dolphins 143 Dolphins
+1.5 -105 +0.5 -105 N/A +1.5 -105 N/A +2.5 -110 +1.5 -127 +4.5 -105  
Kansas City Chiefs 144 Chiefs
-1.5 -115 -0.5 -115 N/A -1.5 -125 N/A -2.5 -110 -1.5 +102 -4.5 -115  
Final
Miami Dolphins 143 Dolphins
o47.5 -110 o13.5 +110 N/A o16.5 -105 N/A o19.5 -124 o12.5 -130 o43.5 -105  
Kansas City Chiefs 144 Chiefs
u47.5 -110 u13.5 -130 N/A u16.5 -125 N/A u19.5 -108 u12.5 +105 u43.5 -115  
Final
Miami Dolphins 143 Dolphins
+108 +125 N/A +142 N/A +136 +115 +194  
Kansas City Chiefs 144 Chiefs
-126 -150 N/A -170 N/A -168 -141 -240  
Final
Miami Dolphins 143 Dolphins
+1.5 -105 +0.5 -135 N/A +0.5 -130 N/A +1.5 -130 +1.5 -148 +4.5 -105  
Kansas City Chiefs 144 Chiefs
-1.5 -115 -0.5 +115 N/A -0.5 +110 N/A -1.5 +108 -1.5 +117 -4.5 -115  
Final
Miami Dolphins 143 Dolphins
o47.5 -110 o8.5 -110 N/A o8.5 -112 N/A o5.5 -136 o9.5 -108 o43.5 -105  
Kansas City Chiefs 144 Chiefs
u47.5 -110 u8.5 -110 N/A u8.5 -108 N/A u5.5 +102 u9.5 -114 u43.5 -115  
Final
Miami Dolphins 143 Dolphins
+108 +110 N/A +114 N/A +124 +110 +194  
Kansas City Chiefs 144 Chiefs
-126 -130 N/A -135 N/A -152 -136 -240  
Final
Miami Dolphins 143 Dolphins
+1.5 -105 +0.5 -120 N/A +0.5 -120 N/A +1.5 -124 +1.5 -122 +4.5 -105  
Kansas City Chiefs 144 Chiefs
-1.5 -115 -0.5 even N/A -0.5 even N/A -1.5 +102 -1.5 -103 -4.5 -115  
Final
Miami Dolphins 143 Dolphins
o47.5 -110 o12.5 -120 N/A o12.5 -122 N/A o12.5 -110 o11.5 -115 o43.5 -105  
Kansas City Chiefs 144 Chiefs
u47.5 -110 u12.5 even N/A u12.5 +102 N/A u12.5 -110 u11.5 -107 u43.5 -115  
Final
Miami Dolphins 143 Dolphins
+108 +110 N/A +110 N/A +122 +120 +194  
Kansas City Chiefs 144 Chiefs
-126 -130 N/A -130 N/A -150 -150 -240  

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Dolphins vs Chiefs Betting Resources

Date: Saturday, January 13
Matchup: AFC East vs. AFC West
Venue: Arrowhead Stadium
Location: Kansas City, Missouri
Time-TV: Peacock, 8:00 p.m. ET

Click here for Vegas Insider senior reporter Patrick Everson's full NFL Odds Wild Card Weekend Report containing spreads, lines, and trends for every NFL matchup.

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Miami Dolphins Betting Analysis

When everything is firing on all cylinders for the Dolphins, it seems like they are unstoppable – and then right when you least expect it, they’ll rip the rug out from beneath you a drop back-to-back duds in their two biggest games of the regular season like they did in matchups against Buffalo and Baltimore the last two weeks.

Tua Tagovailoa led the league in passing yards this season with 4,624. However, he almost let that title slip away down the stretch after falling short of the 250-yard passing mark in four of the Dolphins’ last five games. I think we’ll see Tua’s numbers in the passing department continue to regress.

Check out our Super Bowl odds for a preview of the teams likely to be in the big game.

Kansas City Chiefs Betting Analysis

Kansas City’s offense has underperformed this season, to say the least – and Travis Kelce has been no exception to that claim. Kelce averaged just 66 receiving yards on 6.2 receptions per game during the regular season, which is a pretty significant drop off after averaging 75-plus yards in four of his last five campaigns. 

Kelce’s struggles seemed to get worse down the stretch too, as he closed the regular season with three straight performances of less than 45 receiving yards. Keep an eye out for a big bounce-back performance from Kelce here.

Dolphins vs Chiefs Betting Trends

  • The Dolphins are 13-7 ATS in their last 20 games.
  • The Dolphins are 1-4 SU in their last five games against KC.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of KC's last five games.
  • The Chiefs are 14-6 SU in their last 20 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 12 of Miami's last 16 road games.

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson
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