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Lions vs Packers Picks, Predictions, Odds | Thursday Night Football Week 4

Michael Crosson
Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert
5 minute read

Week 4 of the NFL regular season kicks things off with a heavyweight NFC North clash between the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers. Coverage begins from Lambeau Field in Green Bay at 8:15 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime.

Here's everything you need to know about the Lions vs Packers Picks, Predictions, and Odds for Thursday Night Football Week 4.

Lions vs Packers Picks, Betting Prediction & Odds for Thursday Night Football Week 4

Matchup Spread Total Moneyline

The Packers were listed as underdogs in three straight matchups to open the season, and quite frankly, they nearly came out on top in all three of those contests, as they routed the Bears by a score of 38-20 in Week 1 (+1), blew a double-digit lead in a loss to the Falcons in Week 2 (+3), and then escaped with a narrow one-point victory over the Saints in Week 3 (+1).

It looks like the oddsmakers still feel the same way about Green Bay heading into this Thursday, though. According to VegasInsider’s Patrick Everson, The SuperBook closed last week’s lookahead line for this contest as a pick’em, but re-opened the line at Lions -2 on Sunday night. SuperBook risk supervisor Chase Michaelson noted that Green Bay's comeback win in Week 3 wasn’t overly impressive, and the public doesn’t seem to be fully sold on Jordan Love yet, in turn, leading to a fourth straight week with the Packers tagged as underdogs.

Personally, I’m not totally sold on Jordan Love either. Love has been great so far for Fantasy Football owners, considering he’s already thrown for seven touchdowns through the first three weeks of the season. But in the grand scheme of things, Love has only completed 53% of his passes for 218 yards per game, which ranks 18th in passing yardage, and 33rd out of 34 qualifying QBs in completion percentage, only ahead of Zach Wilson.

However, I am sold on Matt LaFluer being an excellent coach, and I’m also a believer in the surrounding pieces in place to support Love in Green Bay. Since taking the reins as head coach back in 2019, LaFleur has led the Packers to an incredible regular season record of 49-20, despite finishing 8-9 and missing the playoffs last year. Surely, switching gears from Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love at QB isn’t exactly an upgrade. But this is still a really solid football team from top-to-bottom, and they deserve to be respected as such.

While on the other side of that same coin, I think Detroit is a bit overpriced in this spot. Very few teams received as much offseason hype as the Lions, and they managed to solidify that hype early by posting a 21-20 win over the Chiefs in Week 1. However, most of the buzz surrounding the Lions had to do with the potential ascension of an offense that finished Top 5 in scoring last year. But this season, the Lions have now scored 21 points or less in two-of-three matchups out of the gate, and the only contest that they managed to clear that number resulted in an overtime loss to Seattle.

Instead, the Lions have been propelled by their defense to a pair of early wins. But let’s not forget, this is a Detroit defensive unit that ranked 28th in scoring last season, and it’s hard to imagine them standing their ground much longer at this level. All things considered, the Lions are very fortunate that they aren’t sitting 1-2 or 0-3 heading into this contest. And contrarily, the Packers very well could be sitting 3-0. The Lions own a -3 turnover differential on the season, while the Packers sit at +2. Detroit is 1-3 in its last four road matchups against Green Bay. The Packers are 3-1 in their last four home games, overall. Give me the home dog on Thursday night.

Score Prediction: Packers 26, Lions 20
Best Bet: Packers ML (+105)

DET @ GB Odds

  • Full Game
  • 1H
  • 1Q
  • 2Q
  • 3Q
  • 4Q
  • Spread
  • Total
  • Moneyline
Final
Detroit Lions 101 Lions
+1.5 -115 -0.5 -110 -0.5 -105 -0.5 -108 -0.5 -105 -1.5 +110 -1.5 +105 -2.5 -105  
Green Bay Packers 102 Packers
-1.5 -105 +0.5 -110 +0.5 -115 +0.5 -112 +0.5 -115 +1.5 -130 +1.5 -130 +2.5 -115  
Final
Detroit Lions 101 Lions
o46 -110 o22 -110 o22.5 -105 o22.5 even o22 -110 o22.5 -110 o22.5 -113 o44.5 -115  
Green Bay Packers 102 Packers
u46 -110 u22 -110 u22.5 -115 u22.5 -120 u22 -110 u22.5 -110 u22.5 -115 u44.5 -105  
Final
Detroit Lions 101 Lions
even -130 -125 -135 -140 -130 -129 -134  
Green Bay Packers 102 Packers
-118 +110 +105 +114 +118 +108 +102 +114  
Final
Detroit Lions 101 Lions
+1.5 -115 +2 -110 N/A N/A -0.5 -115 -1.5 +110 -1.5 +110 -2.5 -105  
Green Bay Packers 102 Packers
-1.5 -105 -2 -110 N/A N/A +0.5 -105 +1.5 -130 +1.5 -136 +2.5 -115  
Final
Detroit Lions 101 Lions
o46 -110 o20.5 -115 N/A N/A o22.5 -120 o22.5 -110 o22.5 -112 o44.5 -115  
Green Bay Packers 102 Packers
u46 -110 u20.5 -105 N/A N/A u22.5 even u22.5 -110 u22.5 -112 u44.5 -105  
Final
Detroit Lions 101 Lions
even +135 N/A N/A N/A -124 -121 -134  
Green Bay Packers 102 Packers
-118 -155 N/A N/A N/A +106 -103 +114  
Final
Detroit Lions 101 Lions
+1.5 -115 -0.5 +125 -0.5 +125 N/A -0.5 +122 -1.5 +142 -1.5 +132 -2.5 -105  
Green Bay Packers 102 Packers
-1.5 -105 +0.5 -145 +0.5 -160 N/A +0.5 -145 +1.5 -174 +1.5 -165 +2.5 -115  
Final
Detroit Lions 101 Lions
o46 -110 o7.5 -110 o7.5 -120 N/A o7.5 -105 o7.5 -102 o9.5 -107 o44.5 -115  
Green Bay Packers 102 Packers
u46 -110 u7.5 -110 u7.5 -110 N/A u7.5 -115 u7.5 -120 u9.5 -120 u44.5 -105  
Final
Detroit Lions 101 Lions
even -130 -125 N/A -125 -115 -127 -134  
Green Bay Packers 102 Packers
-118 +110 -105 N/A +105 -105 +102 +114  
Final
Detroit Lions 101 Lions
+1.5 -115 -0.5 even N/A N/A N/A -1.5 +120 N/A -2.5 -105  
Green Bay Packers 102 Packers
-1.5 -105 +0.5 -120 N/A N/A N/A +1.5 -146 N/A +2.5 -115  
Final
Detroit Lions 101 Lions
o46 -110 o13.5 even N/A N/A N/A o16.5 -158 N/A o44.5 -115  
Green Bay Packers 102 Packers
u46 -110 u13.5 -120 N/A N/A N/A u16.5 +118 N/A u44.5 -105  
Final
Detroit Lions 101 Lions
even -135 N/A N/A N/A -120 N/A -134  
Green Bay Packers 102 Packers
-118 +115 N/A N/A N/A +102 N/A +114  
Final
Detroit Lions 101 Lions
+1.5 -115 -0.5 +135 N/A N/A N/A -1.5 +134 N/A -2.5 -105  
Green Bay Packers 102 Packers
-1.5 -105 +0.5 -155 N/A N/A N/A +1.5 -164 N/A +2.5 -115  
Final
Detroit Lions 101 Lions
o46 -110 o9.5 -120 N/A N/A N/A o13.5 -120 N/A o44.5 -115  
Green Bay Packers 102 Packers
u46 -110 u9.5 even N/A N/A N/A u13.5 -110 N/A u44.5 -105  
Final
Detroit Lions 101 Lions
even -115 N/A N/A N/A -120 N/A -134  
Green Bay Packers 102 Packers
-118 -105 N/A N/A N/A +102 N/A +114  
Final
Detroit Lions 101 Lions
+1.5 -115 -0.5 +120 N/A N/A N/A -1.5 +126 N/A -2.5 -105  
Green Bay Packers 102 Packers
-1.5 -105 +0.5 -140 N/A N/A N/A +1.5 -154 N/A +2.5 -115  
Final
Detroit Lions 101 Lions
o46 -110 o12.5 -115 N/A N/A N/A o12.5 -124 N/A o44.5 -115  
Green Bay Packers 102 Packers
u46 -110 u12.5 -105 N/A N/A N/A u12.5 +102 N/A u44.5 -105  
Final
Detroit Lions 101 Lions
even -120 N/A N/A N/A -116 N/A -134  
Green Bay Packers 102 Packers
-118 even N/A N/A N/A even N/A +114  

Lions vs Packers Betting Resources

Date: Thursday, September 28, 2023
Matchup: NFC North
Venue: Lambeau Field
Location: Green Bay, Wisconsin
Time-TV: Amazon Prime, 8:15 p.m. ET

Click here for Vegas Insider senior reporter Patrick Everson's full NFL Odds Week 4 Report containing spreads, lines, and trends for every NFL matchup.

Detroit Lions Betting Analysis

By no means am I ready to sell my Lions’ stock at this point of the season. Detroit is an incredibly talented team, especially on the offensive side of the ball. However, I find it really difficult to trust them hitting the road in a short week against a hungry division rival on Thursday night.

The Lions’ offense moved the ball with ease in their first three games of the season, highlighted by Jared Goff and company racking up 381 yards per game on 5.8 yards per play on the way to a 2-1 start, ranking Top 10 in both departments. 

However, the Lions have consistently shot themselves in the foot with turnovers, highlighted by their five giveaways on the season already. And protecting the football is crucial against a Packers squad that only turned it over once in their first three games.

lions-packers-picks-thursday-night-football-week-4
The Packers are 14-5 SU in their last 19 home games. (Getty)

Green Bay Packers Betting Analysis

In the final week of last season, the Packers had a chance to punch their ticket to the playoffs in a Sunday Night Football matchup against Detroit at Lambeau Field, but to the surprise of many, Green Bay was outdueled by a score of 20-16 as the Lions got to play spoiler against their division rival in what was an otherwise meaningless game for Detroit.

I’m not a huge fan of “revenge game” betting, in general. The current situation just sets up nicely for Green Bay, in my opinion. That said, I would be remiss if I didn’t mention the fact that the Packers’ playoff hopes were crushed on their home field the last time these two teams met. So, on top of the situational factors at play, I expect them to have a little extra juice for Detroit on Thursday night.  

Lions vs Packers Betting Trends

  • The Lions are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of Detroit's last five games.
  • The Lions are 4-1 SU in their last five games.
  • The Packers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games.
  • The Packers are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games.
  • The Packers are 14-5 SU in their last 19 home games.
  • The Lions are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games against Green Bay.
  • The Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of Green Bay's last nine games against Detroit.

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson
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