NFL Betting: Vegas Contests Serve Up Season-Long Action on NFL Odds
NFL betting is mostly about the week-to-week cadence of the regular season. But what if you could get down a whole season's worth of action in one fell swoop?
For decades, The SuperBook's SuperContest has offered that option. And more recently, Circa Sports has seen explosive growth with its Circa Million and Circa Survivor contests.
With the 2024-25 season approaching, here's everything you need to know about the big Las Vegas contests as an alternate form of NFL betting.
NFL Betting Odds
Circa Survivor Stampede
Circa Sports, the brainchild of Las Vegas casino owner and sports fanatic Derek Stevens, has only been in operation since 2019. That year, Circa launched Circa Million, a weekly contest in which entrants make five NFL picks against the spread.
In 2020, Circa Survivor was added. Both contests have a guaranteed prize pool that's grown by leaps and bounds since then. And that's led to massive interest, with people traveling to Vegas from all over the U.S. and beyond to get their $1,000 entries in before the NFL season kicks off.
In fact, Circa Survivor now far outpaces Circa Million.
"Obviously, Survivor has taken on a life of its own. It's become the contest that's more hyped and talked about," Circa Sports director of operations Jeff Benson said.
Like other Survivor contests, entrants pick one team each week to win straight up; there's no point spread involved. If that team wins, you advance to the next week, but you can no longer use that team. If that team loses, you're out of the contest.
But Circa puts a spin on it by adding extra weeks. Contestants have to make picks not only for Weeks 1-18, but one pick covering Thanksgiving Day/Black Friday, and one pick for the Christmas Leg of Wednesday/Thursday games.
Last season, the guarantee was $8 million for this NFL betting alternative. But Circa Survivor attracted a whopping 9,267 entries, upping the prize pool to $9.267 million.
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This year, the guarantee is $10 million, and Benson fully expects the final tally to exceed the 10,000 entries necessary to cover that guarantee.
"There are a lot of pick 'em contests. But this is the world's largest legal Survivor contest. It's not something many others do," Benson said. "The simplicity of one pick a week, the drama of it, the suddenness of getting knocked out – it's such a fun contest.
"And with the addition of holiday weeks, a lot of game theory is added to the contest."
Contestants can submit up to 10 entries, and Benson is projecting between 11,000 and 12,000 entries this year. Those outside Nevada who come here to sign up just need to have a proxy service to submit the weekly pick.
"Survivor has taken off like wildfire," Benson said. "Derek Stevens and I were really passionate about doing Survivor, and we've continued to support that passion by upping the guarantee every year."
SuperContest: The Original
Back in 1988, The SuperBook started its SuperContest, in which entrants made five picks a week against the spread. More than three decades later, it's still going, while finding more ways to spread around the prize pool.
It's not just the overall winner getting a big check in this alternative to standard NFL betting. The SuperContest pays out the top 20 finishers. But well beyond that, this season, there's $810,000 in guaranteed prize money spread among 11 in-season contests.
"I think a lot of people we talk to get in both the SuperContest and Circa Million," SuperBook executive director John Murray said, alluding to his peers' contest. "Our differentiating factor is definitely our in-season contests. When you buy in, you're really entering 12 contests at once.
"It's great to buy in to one contest, and it covers all 12."
That buy-in is $1,000. The 11 additional contests:
- Six three-week contests, paying out to the top three finishers ($25,000 first place)
- Three six-week contests, paying out to the top four finishers ($50,000 first place)
- Two nine-week contests, paying out to the top five finishers ($75,000 first place
"You also don't have to live in Nevada. You can align yourself with one of the proxy services, and they can take care of your picks all season," Murray said, while noting one other potentially positive component of the SuperContest. "I still think there are people who want to be in contests with less people, where they have a better chance to finish in the money."
SuperContest Gold is evidence of that. An offshoot of the original, SuperContest Gold has a $5,000 entry fee, and it's winner take all. Whoever has the best record at season's end scoops up the whole pot.
"All of us at The SuperBook think this is the best contest in town for the serious bettors. We've got a lot of sharp professional sports bettors who get in this contest," Murray said.
Circa Million: The Overlay Play
As noted above, Circa Million came to life in 2019, with a guaranteed $1.5 million in prize money. Entry fee was $1,000, contestants made five picks against the spread each week, and the top 50 finishers got paid out at season's end.
Circa Million VI, as this year's contest is termed, has a $6 million guarantee, matching last year's total. The winner still pockets $1 million, and $3.65 million is alloted for the Nos. 2-100 finishers.
In addition, $300,000 per quarter is awarded every four to five weeks. And you can even win by losing: The entrant with the worst season-long record pockets $100,000, and the entrant with the second-worst record gets $50,000.
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"You can get paid if you do good or do bad," Benson said. "There are 126 different ways to win. The ability for an individual to win is much more plentiful. If you've only got $1,000 to spend, I'd encourage someone to get involved in Circa Million, instead of Survivor."
Last year, Circa Million attracted 5,274 entries. That's $5,274,000, which means the entry fees fell more than $700,000 short of the guaranteed prize pool. That creates a bit more of a bargain for contestants. And there will probably be significant overlay again this year.
"Circa Million is almost a sure bet to have overlay. If we get to 5,500 entries this year, we'd consider that a win for us," Benson said. "I imagine there'll be at least a half-million-dollar overlay. If plus-EV (expected value) matters, I'd steer you toward the Million."
Entrants from outside Nevada just need to select a proxy service to submit their weekly picks.
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