NFL Odds Week 11: Jets vs Bills Lines, Spreads, Betting Trends

Patrick Everson Sports Betting Expert

4 minute read

Week 11 of the NFL season continues with a meaningful AFC East showdown between the New York Jets and Buffalo Bills. The betting odds see Buffalo as a seven-point favorite despite posting losses in three of their last four games. Coverage begins from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park on Sunday, November 19 at 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS.

Here's everything you need to know about the NFL odds for Week 11 Jets vs. Bills Lines, Spreads, Betting Trends: the opening lines, spreads, betting trends, best sportsbook bonus, and more. Stay tuned for more details regarding our ESPN BET promo code as well!

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills Odds

• Opening point spread: Bills -6.5
• Opening moneyline: Bills -310/Jets +250
• Opening total: Over/Under 40.5 points scored
• Time: 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday (CBS)

UPDATE 4 P.M. ET SUNDAY: DraftKings is up to Bills -8 as kickoff approaches, up from the -6.5 opener last Sunday and -8.5 high point earlier today. But it's two-way spread play, with 54% of tickets/57% of money on the Bills.

That said, it's safe to assume Buffalo is in a lot of moneyline parlays and teasers.

The total opened at 40.5 and spent most of the week toggling between 39.5 and 39. It's currently 39, with 53% of tickets/59% of money on the Under.

UPDATE 12:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: BetMGM opened the Bills -6.5 (-120) and moved to -7 (-105)/-7 flat Monday. There's been no movement since. Spread ticket count is dead even and 62% of early spread money is on the underdog Jets.

The total fell from 40.5 to 39.5 Wednesday and remains 39.5 today. Ticket count is almost 4/1 and money nearly 5/1 on the Under.

UPDATE 7 P.M. ET TUESDAY: Buffalo, considered a Super Bowl contender the past two seasons and this year, is currently a .500 team. The Bills (5-5 SU/3-7 ATS) were 7.5-point home favorites vs. Denver in the Week 11 Monday nighter and lost outright 24-22.

The SuperBook opened Jets-Bills at Buffalo -6.5 Sunday night. On Monday morning, the line adjusted to -6.5 (-120), then rose to Bills -7. That's where it remains now, with no change despite Buffalo's loss to Denver.

UPDATE 11 P.M. ET SUNDAY: For the second straight week, New York (4-5 SU/4-4-1 ATS) failed to put up a touchdown. The Jets managed just four field goals in a 16-12 loss as a 1-point favorite at Las Vegas.

Buffalo (5-4 SU/3-6 ATS) hasn't played its Week 10 contest yet, hosting Denver on Monday Night Football.

"Buffalo feels like a team in transition," Michaelson said. "But we felt that if Buffalo is -7 against Denver, the Bills should be slightly shorter against a much more talented Jets team."

Click here for Vegas Insider senior reporter Patrick Everson's full NFL Odds Week 11 Report containing spreads, lines, and trends for every NFL matchup.

Jets vs Bills Pick, Prediction

Action Network NFL betting expert Brandon Anderson offers this prediction:

We all watched that Monday night opener when the Jets won in overtime, and it was obvious Buffalo was the much better team and should've won, but this is not that Bills team anymore. The old Bills responded with 41 PPG in the three games following the Jets loss, but have plummeted to 20.5 PPG in six games since.

Now that faltering offense has to face a Jets defense that's become everything it was supposed to be. New York has found answers against almost every top quarterback, and the metrics say this defense is as good as any in football over the past six weeks — especially against the pass.

Buffalo's defense isn't good, not by any measure. The injuries have piled up, and Buffalo ranks 31st in Defensive DVOA the past six weeks. The Bills are 31st against the pass in that stretch and bottom three against WR1s on the season, so this could be a Garrett Wilson game. Buffalo has also been poor on first downs, which sets the Jets up to find some success early and keep things a bit easy for Zach Wilson.

The truth hurts: the Jets' defense is good enough to match Buffalo's offense, and the Bills' defense is bad enough to match New York's offense. These teams are much closer to even than -7, so grab the key number.

Pick: Jets +7 (-110)

For more NFL picks, check out Action Network's NFL Week 11: How to Bet Every Game & Every Team.

The One Stat to Know About Jets vs Bills

Action Network NFL researcher Evan Abrams offers his top betting stat:

Teams to lose as a 7-point favorite or higher in their previous game are 150-121-12 ATS (55.4%) last 20 years.

For more NFL betting stats, check out Action Network's NFL Week 11 Betting Trends, Stats, Notes.

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Patrick Everson

Patrick Everson is a senior reporter for VegasInsider. Based in Las Vegas since 1994, he's worked in the sports betting journalism/content space for more than a decade. He's most known for his deep roster of contacts behind sportsbook counters, providing readers and viewers with the ins-and-outs of how events are being bet. He's also a thought leader in the sports betting space, often appearing on or moderating panels at national conferences. More from Patrick Everson