NFL Odds Week 14: Bills vs Chiefs Lines, Spreads, Betting Trends

Patrick Everson Sports Betting Expert

4 minute read

Week 14 of the NFL season continues with a blockbuster AFC clash between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs. The betting odds see Buffalo as 2.5-point underdogs coming off losses in three of their last four games. Coverage begins from Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City on Sunday, December 10 at 1:00 p.m. ET on FOX.

Here's everything you need to know about the NFL odds for Week 14: Bills vs. Chiefs lines, spreads, betting trends and more.

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Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs Odds

• Opening point spread: Chiefs -3
• Opening moneyline: Chiefs -140/Bills +120
• Opening total: Over/Under 48 points scored
• Time: 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday (CBS)

UPDATE 3:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY: DraftKings has Kansas City laying 2 points, with kickoff about an hour out. That's down from the Chiefs -3 opener, but a flip from a brief stint at Bills -1 Friday.

K.C. is seeing 66% of spread bets/62% of spread money.

The total opened at 48, bottomed out at 47 Tuesday and is now up to 49.5. Tickets are 2/1 and money 2.5/1 on the Over.

UPDATE MIDNIGHT ET WEDNESDAY: Kansas City opened -2.5 at TwinSpires and backed up to -1.5 by midweek. The Chiefs are seeing 64% of early tickets, while 60% of early money is on the Bills.

"It's Pros vs. Joes. The Pros are on the Bills spread and moneyline," Lucas said.

The total climbed from 47.5 to 48.5, with tickets and money in the 2/1 range on the Over.

UPDATE 11:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Kansas City (8-4 SU/7-5 ATS) couldn't overcome Green Bay on Sunday Night Football. The Chiefs were 6-point faves but never led in a 27-19 loss, their third setback in the past five games.

Buffalo (6-6 SU/4-7-1 ATS) is in desperation mode to get wins, hoping a Week 13 bye proves helpful. In Week 12, the Bills had a great opportunity to knock off Philadelphia, but fell short 37-34 in overtime. Buffalo pushed as a 3-point road 'dog.

Bills-Chiefs was taken off The SuperBook's board once Chiefs-Packers kicked off tonight. Bills-Chiefs odds will go back up Monday morning.

"Nothing changed from our lookahead, since the Chiefs played on Sunday night," Michaelson said. "Buffalo is power-rated much higher than its record would indicate, and I think we've seen some public support for the Bills, even through their struggles. This game will probably not see that. I imagine we will be rooting hard for Buffalo."

Click here for Vegas Insider senior reporter Patrick Everson's full NFL Odds Week 14 Report containing spreads, lines, and trends for every NFL matchup.

Bills vs Chiefs Pick, Prediction

Action Network NFL betting expert Brandon Anderson offers this prediction:

We usually get points in this matchup, so that sets up well for prop overs.

Josh Allen rushing overs are the first thing I look for in every big Buffalo game. The pattern for years now has been the Bills saving Allen's legs in less important games, then dialing up designed runs and extra scrambles in the games that matter most. Allen has the most EPA on QB scrambles this season, and the numbers from recent years speak for themselves.

In 22 games against non-playoff teams over the past two years, Allen has run 6.4 times for 39.5 yards. In 16 games against playoff teams, those numbers spike to 8.7 rushes for 53.0 yards. This year, in four games against presumed playoff games, Allen's at 7.8 runs for 44.5 yards and over this line in three of the four, compared to just 4.4 carries for 20.5 yards in the other eight games.

This prop has been money against the Chiefs in particular. Allen has at least seven rushes and at least 32 yards in all five games against Kansas City, averaging 9.2 carries for 57.8 yards and going over this line in all five at 32, 59, 42, 68, and 88 yards. All the better if Chiefs linebackers Nick Bolton and Drue Tranquill are still out. I'll play multiple units on Over 30.5 and also sprinkle 50+ yards at +320 with just a dash of hope on 75+ yards at +1425 (bet365).

Remember Gabriel Davis? Chiefs fans do. Davis lit up Kansas City for 201 yards and four scores in that aforementioned playoff matchup, and he could be in for another big game here. Trent McDuffie has done a great job against opposing WR1s, but the Chiefs rank bottom 10 against WR2s by DVOA. Check out some of the lines allowed by Kansas City this season to WR2s: Christian Kirk 11/110, Allen Lazard 3/61/1, Jordan Addison 6/64/1, Josh Palmer 5/133, Jerry Jeudy 2/50/1, DeVonta Smith 6/99 and Jakobi Meyers 6/79/1.

Davis has been feast or famine this season, so there's no use playing a median outcome. If he pops, he really pops, usually with at least one long touchdown. Davis has had at least five catches for 80 yards and a score in four games already this season. We can play an SGP for just 80 yards and an anytime TD at +1400 at PointsBet, and that looks badly mispriced compared to the rest of the market.

Pick: Josh Allen Over 30.5 Rushing Yards

For more NFL picks, check out Action Network's NFL Week 14: How to Bet Every Game & Every Team.

The One Stat to Know About Bills vs Chiefs

Action Network NFL researcher Evan Abrams offers his top betting stat:

Mahomes has had 29 passes dropped so far this season, most of any QB in the NFL. He had 33 last year, seventh-most in the NFL.

For more NFL betting stats, check out Action Network's NFL Week 14 Betting Trends, Stats, Notes.

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Patrick Everson

Patrick Everson is a senior reporter for VegasInsider. Based in Las Vegas since 1994, he's worked in the sports betting journalism/content space for more than a decade. He's most known for his deep roster of contacts behind sportsbook counters, providing readers and viewers with the ins-and-outs of how events are being bet. He's also a thought leader in the sports betting space, often appearing on or moderating panels at national conferences. More from Patrick Everson