NFL Odds Week 14: Buccaneers vs Falcons Lines, Spreads, Betting Trends

Patrick Everson Sports Betting Expert

3 minute read

Week 14 of the NFL season continues with a surprisingly meaningful NFC South bout between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons. The betting odds see Atlanta as 2.5-point favorites coming off back-to-back wins over the Saints and Jets. Coverage begins from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Sunday, December 10 at 1:00 p.m. ET on FOX.

Here's everything you need to know about the NFL odds for Week 14: Buccaneers vs. Falcons lines, spreads, betting trends and more.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons Odds

• Opening point spread: Falcons -2.5
• Opening moneyline: Falcons -140/Buccaneers +120
• Opening total: Over/Under 38.5 points scored
• Time: 1 p.m. ET Sunday (CBS)

UPDATE 10:30 A.M. ET SUNDAY: Atlanta is 2-point chalk at Caesars with 2.5 hours to go until kickoff. That's where the Falcons opened a week ago, and they spent time at -1.5/-1 Wednesday and Thursday. Atlanta rebounded to -2 Friday and -2.5 today.

That said, it's two-way spread play with a lean toward the underdog Bucs, at 52% of tickets/53% of money.

UPDATE 2:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: BetMGM pegged the Falcons 2.5-point favorites Sunday night and fell back to -1.5 Wednesday/-1 Thursday. Atlanta is now -2, with spread tickets 2/1 and spread money almost 2.5/1 on the Falcons.

The total spent most of the first half of the week at the 39 opener. Thursday brought moves to 40/40.5/41, and it's still at 41 this afternoon. Early tickets and dollars are running 9/1 on the Over at BetMGM.

UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Atlanta (6-6 SU/4-8 ATS) nabbed an ugly 13-8 victory over the New York Jets. The Falcons cashed as 2-point faves, their second straight cover after a 1-8 ATS nosedive.

Tampa Bay (5-7 SU/6-6 ATS) held off Carolina 21-18, but failed to cash as 3.5-point home chalk.

The SuperBook is stable tonight on Bucs-Falcons, with Atlanta -2.5 and the total at 38.5 in the NFL odds Week 14 market.

Click here for Vegas Insider senior reporter Patrick Everson's full NFL Odds Week 14 Report containing spreads, lines, and trends for every NFL matchup.

Buccaneers vs Falcons Pick, Prediction

Action Network NFL betting expert Brandon Anderson offers this prediction:

The Buccaneers definitely have the better defense, and the Falcons aren't exactly scaring anyone offensively or putting up big numbers. Atlanta will have to do its part defensively to win this one, and the script looks under. Both teams are 8-4 to the under this season, with Atlanta games averaging under 39 PPG and Tampa games under 40 PPG. Both the Falcons and Buccaneers have gone under 41 in eight of 12 games this season.

Todd Bowles road unders have been a smart angle historically at 30-17 to the under (64%), the second-most profitable coach in our Action Labs system. So too for Baker Mayfield when the total is below 44 (20-9 to the under (69%), the second-most profitable quarterback). There are also trends backing the under for late-season division matchups with a home favorite under a touchdown (57% to the under) and with totals of 40-47 points (56%).

And then there's my favorite stat, just the perfect summary for this awful NFC South. We've had six division games played so far between the Falcons, Buccaneers, Saints and Panthers. Not one of those games has even finished with 40 points. NFC South games are averaging 35.5 PPG this season, and the lowest one so far? You guessed it: Falcons-Buccaneers the first time around at just 29 points.

Pick: Under 41

For more NFL picks, check out Action Network's NFL Week 14: How to Bet Every Game & Every Team and our Superbowl odds.

The One Stat to Know About Buccaneers vs Falcons

Action Network NFL researcher Evan Abrams offers his top betting stat:

Baker Mayfield is 23-21 ATS as an underdog and 13-25-1 ATS as a favorite

For more NFL betting stats, check out Action Network's NFL Week 14 Betting Trends, Stats, Notes.

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Patrick Everson

Patrick Everson is a senior reporter for VegasInsider. Based in Las Vegas since 1994, he's worked in the sports betting journalism/content space for more than a decade. He's most known for his deep roster of contacts behind sportsbook counters, providing readers and viewers with the ins-and-outs of how events are being bet. He's also a thought leader in the sports betting space, often appearing on or moderating panels at national conferences. More from Patrick Everson