NFL Odds Week 17: Falcons vs Bears Lines, Spreads, Betting Trends

Patrick Everson Sports Betting Expert

3 minute read

Week 17 of the NFL season continues with what's expected to be a competitive NFC bout between the Atlanta Falcons and Chicago Bears. The betting odds see Chicago as a three-point home favorite coming off wins in three of their last four games. Coverage begins from Soldier Field in Chicago on Sunday, December 31 at 1:00 p.m. ET on CBS.

Here's everything you need to know about the NFL odds for Week 17: Falcons vs. Bears lines, spreads, betting trends and more.

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Atlanta Falcons vs Chicago Bears Odds

• Opening point spread: Bears -3
• Opening moneyline: Bears -160/Falcons +140
• Opening total: Over/Under 37.5 points scored
• Time: 1 p.m. ET Sunday (CBS)

UPDATE 12:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY: As kickoff nears, the Bears are -3 (-105) at DraftKings. That's exactly where this line opened a week ago. Chicago spent a good chunk of Friday and Saturday at various iterations of -2.5, then returned to -3 Saturday night.

The Bears are drawing 70% of spread bets/59% of spread money.

DK's total opened at 39, hit a low of 37.5 Tuesday, then made its way up to 39 by this morning. The Over is seeing 64% of bets/55% of money.

UPDATE 2:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: The Bears were pinned to -3 most of the week at BetMGM, with only juice adjustments. But this afternoon, Chicago is down to -2.5 (-115). Still, spread tickets and cash are in the 2/1 range on the Bears.

BetMGM's total went from 38 to 38.5 Monday, then returned to 38 Tuesday. Ticket count is just shy of 2/1 and money 5/1 on the Under.

UPDATE 11 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Atlanta (7-8 SU/5-10 ATS) is making a last gasp for the postseason. The Falcons rolled over Indianapolis 29-10 laying 2.5 points at home.

Chicago (6-9 SU/7-7-1 ATS) is actually on upturns of 3-1 SU/4-1 ATS. In Week 16, the Bears topped Arizona 27-16 giving 4.5 points at home.

The Falcons-Bears spread and total are stable tonight at The SuperBook.

Click here for Vegas Insider senior reporter Patrick Everson's full NFL Odds Week 17 Report containing spreads, lines, and trends for every NFL matchup.

Falcons vs Bears Pick, Prediction

Action Network NFL betting expert Brandon Anderson offers this prediction:

Exactly what are the Falcons better at? Atlanta is built to run the football, but Chicago ranks 10th in Rushing DVOA while Atlanta is 21st. The Falcons are built to stop the run, but the Bears rate better at that too. The Bears are the better team and have been since the start of October with the gap only widening lately as Chicago cracks top five in DVOA over the past six weeks.

Chicago should have a real home-field advantage too. The Falcons have been awful on the road (2-5), including losses to the Titans, Cardinals and Panthers, with the offense averaging under 14 PPG. Chicago has won four in a row at home and scored over 25 PPG in those contests, and the Bears' offense has been far better at home than on the road this season.

The NFC South is an ugly 16-26 ATS (38%) in non-division games, and Atlanta is 2-8 ATS itself. The Falcons also fit that trend of fading teams in must-win situations. Teams with a 40-to-60% win rate that are 5-to-25% above their opponent are 52-105-6 ATS (33%) in Week 16 or later, and it's even worse (12-34-3 ATS, 26%) if they won last week, like Atlanta did. This line is giving the Falcons too much respect for beating a blah Colts team last week. The Falcons stink.

Pick: Bears -2.5

For more NFL picks, check out Action Network's NFL Week 17: How to Bet Every Game & Every Team.

The One Stat to Know About Falcons vs Bears

Action Network NFL researcher Evan Abrams offers his top betting stat:

The Falcons are 5-10 ATS this season, the 3rd worst record in the NFL behind the Patriots and Saints.

For more NFL betting stats, check out Action Network's NFL Week 17 Betting Trends, Stats, Notes.

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Patrick Everson

Patrick Everson is a senior reporter for VegasInsider. Based in Las Vegas since 1994, he's worked in the sports betting journalism/content space for more than a decade. He's most known for his deep roster of contacts behind sportsbook counters, providing readers and viewers with the ins-and-outs of how events are being bet. He's also a thought leader in the sports betting space, often appearing on or moderating panels at national conferences. More from Patrick Everson