NFL Odds Week 4: Buccaneers vs Saints Lines, Spreads, Betting Trends

Patrick Everson Sports Betting Expert

3 minute read

The NFC South looks like a three-team race this season as two of those squads hook up in New Orleans on Sunday. A huge Week 4 battle between the Buccaneers and Saints at Caesars Superdome kicks off at 1:00 p.m. ET on FOX.

Here's everything you need to know about the NFL odds for Week 4 Buccaneers vs. Saints: the opening lines, spreads, betting trends and more. Check back regularly for updates.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints Odds

• Opening point spread: Saints -3
• Opening moneyline: Saints -155/Buccaneers +135
• Opening total: Over/Under 40.5 points scored
• Time: 1 p.m. ET Sunday (FOX)

UPDATE 10:30 A.M. ET SUNDAY: New Orleans remains -3.5 at BetMGM (see below update), though with a modest juice adjustment from -105 to the flat -110. Ticket count is almost 3/1 and money 2/1 on the Saints.

The total returned to the 40.5 opener this morning, with tickets literally dead even and 60% of money on the Over.

UPDATE 12:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: The Saints spent the first couple days of the week at various iterations of -3, then went to -3.5 (-105) Wednesday at BetMGM. The line hasn't moved since. However, ticket count is 4/1 and money 2/1 on the underdog Buccaneers.

BetMGM's total opened at 40.5 and is now 39.5, with 61% of tickets on the Under, but 84% of cash on the Over.

UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SUNDAY: New Orleans (2-1 SU/0-2-1 ATS) blew a 17-0 fourth-quarter lead while getting the first blemish on its SU record. The Saints lost 18-17 as 1.5-point favorites at Green Bay.

Tampa Bay (2-0 SU and ATS) still has a tough Week 3 challenge Monday night against visiting Philadelphia.

The Bucs-Saints spread got a modest juice adjustment tonight, from Saints -3 flat to -3 (even).

Click here for Vegas Insider senior reporter Patrick Everson's full NFL Odds Week 4 Report containing spreads, lines, and trends for every NFL matchup.

Buccaneers vs Saints Pick, Prediction

Action Network NFL betting expert Brandon Anderson offers this prediction:

These teams look pretty even so far. Both defenses have played well, especially against the pass. Both offenses have been relatively average, with the Saints slightly better but now downgraded with Carr out. But with two even teams, why are the Bucs catching more than a field goal?

It's almost always a good idea to bet against Dennis Allen and Jameis Winston as favorites. Allen is 4-10 ATS when favored, including 1-6 in the division. Winston is 31% ATS as a favorite, including a horrible 3-11-1  as a favorite of three or more.

Winston is just 8-7 SU in those games, effectively a .500 QB even when he's on the clearly better team. Play the +160 ML too. This is a big opportunity for the Bucs.

Underdogs of four or less with a total at 42 or below are 82-49-2 ATS (63%) the last five years. This total is below 40 and I lean under anyways, which means points will be hard to come by, and that makes the +3.5 especially valuable. I have to keep fading Allen and his QBs until they prove otherwise.

Pick: Buccaneers +3.5 (-110)

For more NFL Week 4 picks, check out Action Network's NFL Week 4: How to Bet Every Game & Every Team.

The One Stat to Know About Buccaneers vs Saints

Action Network NFL researcher Evan Abrams offers his top betting stat:

Winston’s 8-19-1 ATS mark as a favorite makes him the 8th-least profitable of 213 QBs over the last 20 years.

For more NFL Week 4 picks, check out Action Network's NFL Week 4 Betting Trends, Stats, Notes.

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Patrick Everson

Patrick Everson is a senior reporter for VegasInsider. Based in Las Vegas since 1994, he's worked in the sports betting journalism/content space for more than a decade. He's most known for his deep roster of contacts behind sportsbook counters, providing readers and viewers with the ins-and-outs of how events are being bet. He's also a thought leader in the sports betting space, often appearing on or moderating panels at national conferences. More from Patrick Everson