NFL Odds Week 4: Dolphins vs Bills Lines, Spreads, Betting Trends

Patrick Everson Sports Betting Expert

3 minute read

Week 4 of the NFL season showcases a huge battle for the top spot in the AFC East. The red-hot Dolphins look to capitalize off their 70-point output as Miami travels to Buffalo on Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET on CBS.

Here's everything you need to know about the NFL odds for Week 4 Dolphins vs. Bills: the opening lines, spreads, betting trends and more. Check back regularly for updates.

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Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Odds

• Opening point spread: Bills -2.5
• Opening moneyline: Bills -145/Dolphins +125
• Opening total: Over/Under 53 points scored
• Time: 1 p.m. ET Sunday (CBS)

UPDATE 10:15 A.M. ET SUNDAY: Less than three hours before kickoff, Buffalo is at -2.5 (-120) in BetMGM's NFL odds Week 4 market. The Bills opened -2.5 flat, went to -3 Tuesday, then receded to -2.5 (-120) Wednesday.

It's two-way spread play, with 56% of tickets on Miami/56% of spread cash on Buffalo.

"The two most-bet games this week are Bills-Dolphins and Chiefs-Jets. In the early game, the best outcome for the sportsbook would be for the Bills to win but not cover," BetMGM trader Seamus Magee said.

BetMGM's total opened at 53.5, peaked at 54.5 Wednesday and returned to 53.5 Thursday. Tickets and money are in the 3/1 range on the Over.

UPDATE 9 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Buffalo opened -2.5 at TwinSpires and is up to -3, but it's two-way play. The Dolphins are getting 59% of early bets, while 58% of early cash is on the Bills.

"It's looking like a Pros vs. Joes matchup. The public isn't passing up the 3-0 Dolphins getting points, with the way their offense has looked," Lucas said.

The total initially nudged down from 54 to 53.5, but it's now back at 54. The Over is seeing 70% of tickets/54% of money in the early going.

"Sharp play on Under 54," Lucas said.

UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SUNDAY: This is easily the best game on the NFL Week 4 odds board, with both teams coming off blowout wins.

Miami was absolutely spectacular in beating the daylights out of Denver. The Dolphins (3-0 SU and ATS) scored 35 points in each half of a 70-20 victory giving 6 points at home.

Buffalo wasn't quite that overwhelming, but took care of business nonetheless. The Bills (2-1 SU and ATS) dumped Washington 37-3 as 5.5-point road faves.

"Both teams were impressive today, but making the Dolphins a field-goal underdog after the offensive explosion today felt unwise," Michaelson said. "I could see the public betting the Dolphins as a 'dog."

The total is already up a half-point tonight to 53.5 at The SuperBook.

In last season's Wild Card round, without Tua Tagovailoa, Miami gave the host Bills all they could handle. Buffalo ultimately prevailed 34-31 laying 14 points.

Click here for Vegas Insider senior reporter Patrick Everson's full NFL Odds Week 4 Report containing spreads, lines, and trends for every NFL matchup.

Dolphins vs Bills Pick, Prediction

Action Network NFL betting expert Brandon Anderson offers this prediction:

This is one of my favorite go-to prop bets. Over the past couple years, the Bills consistently save Allen's legs and run him more in big spots against top teams, unleashing him for designed runs and scrambles. Look at the numbers over the last two seasons:

• 22 games vs non-playoff teams: 6.4 carries a game for 39.5 yards
• 16 games vs playoff teams: 8.7 carries for 53.0 yards, with 44+ in 10/16

The pattern is consistent: Allen is up at least 34% in both rushing attempts and yards against better opponents. So far this year Allen hasn't run much, just 4.0 times a game for an average of 29.7 yards. Why? Because the Bills have played Washington, Vegas, and Zach Wilson's Jets! Even so, he still went over this line twice.

Last year against Miami, Allen rushed eight times for 47 yards and 10 times for 47 yards. He went under at four carries for 20 yards in the playoff matchup — but that was only because Buffalo was facing third-string QB Skylar Thompson! The Bills save Allen's legs for the biggest moments. This is one of them. Give me the over, and I'll play 50+ at +220 too.

Pick: Josh Allen Over 34.5 (-115)

For more NFL Week 4 picks, check out Action Network's NFL Week 4: How to Bet Every Game & Every Team.

The One Stat to Know About Dolphins vs Bills

Action Network NFL researcher Evan Abrams offers his top betting stat:

Tagovailoa is 5-0 ATS vs. the Patriots. He’s 3-3-1 ATS vs. the Bills and Jets.

For more NFL Week 4 picks, check out Action Network's NFL Week 4 Betting Trends, Stats, Notes.

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• Use our exclusive BetMGM Bonus Code VIBONUS1600 to unlock BetMGM's welcome offer for new sportsbook users!
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Patrick Everson

Patrick Everson is a senior reporter for VegasInsider. Based in Las Vegas since 1994, he's worked in the sports betting journalism/content space for more than a decade. He's most known for his deep roster of contacts behind sportsbook counters, providing readers and viewers with the ins-and-outs of how events are being bet. He's also a thought leader in the sports betting space, often appearing on or moderating panels at national conferences. More from Patrick Everson