NFL Odds Week 5: Saints vs Patriots Lines, Spreads, Betting Trends

Patrick Everson Sports Betting Expert

3 minute read

The NFL betting odds have the 1-3 Patriots tagged as short home favorites over the 2-2 Saints in this Week 5 non-conference clash. Coverage begins from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough on Sunday, October 8 at 1:00 p.m. ET on CBS.

Here's everything you need to know about the NFL odds for Week 5 Saints vs Patriots: the opening lines, spreads, betting trends and more. Check back regularly for updates.

New Orleans Saints vs New England Patriots Odds

• Opening point spread: Patriots -1.5
• Opening moneyline: Patriots -125/Saints +105
• Opening total: Over/Under 40 points scored
• Time: 1 p.m. ET Sunday (CBS)

UPDATE 10:45 A.M. ET SUNDAY: There's been a little shifting since Friday at BetMGM (see below). New England is up a tick to -1.5, while taking 59% of bets/73% of money.

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The total is at 39, with 83% of bets/58% of cash on the Under.

UPDATE 5 P.M. ET FRIDAY: The Patriots have been at -1/-1.5 most of the week at BetMGM. But for about 24 hours, Thursday morning-Friday morning, the Saints were a 1-point road chalk.

New England is now -1 (-105) while taking 53% of early spread bets/70% of early spread dollars.

The total went from 39 Sunday to 39.5 Monday to 40 Tuesday. It then toggled between 39.5 and 39 over the past day or so, and it's now 39. The Under is getting 84% of tickets, while 58% of money is on the Over.

By ticket count, Saints-Pats is the most-bet Under at BetMGM this week.

UPDATE 11 P.M. ET SUNDAY: New England (1-3 SU and ATS) was never in it at Dallas, mainly due to allowing a fumble-return TD and interception-return TD in the first half. The Patriots lost 38-3 as 6-point road underdogs.

New Orleans (2-2 SU, 0-3-1 ATS) closed as a 4.5-point home fave against Tampa Bay and lost outright 26-9.

The Saints-Pats spread is stable tonight, but the total is down a point to 39 on The SuperBook's NFL Week 5 odds board.

For more NFL coverage, check out our Best NFL Betting Sites page.

Click here for Vegas Insider senior reporter Patrick Everson's full NFL Odds Week 5 Report containing spreads, lines, and trends for every NFL matchup.

Saints vs Patriots Pick, Prediction

Action Network NFL betting expert Brandon Anderson offers this prediction:

If these teams are pretty close to even, do you want Dennis Allen or Bill Belichick?

Historically, this has been a great spot to back the GOAT. Belichick is 64% ATS in games with a spread of three or less. He's 43-14-1 ATS (75%) as anything other than a 7.5+ point favorite after a loss. And you already know Belichick doesn't get embarrassed twice in a row. After an ATS loss of over 21 points, Belichick is 12-1 ATS.

Belichick is also 33-10-1 ATS in games with a total below 40. Do any of those reliable Belichick trends hold up anymore? I'll pay to find out.

We're getting Belichick vs. Allen, and we're getting Belichick vs. either an injured Carr or, you know, Jameis Winston. You had me at hello. We're really making Allen a road favorite against Belichick? I liked the Patriots as a short favorite, so of course I like them even more as underdogs. If this gets to +3 somehow, it's a definite bet.

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Pick: Patriots +1.5 (-110)

For more NFL Week 5 picks, check out Action Network's NFL Week 5: How to Bet Every Game & Every Team.

The One Stat to Know About Saints vs Patriots

Action Network NFL researcher Evan Abrams offers his top betting stat:

Fourteen times in his career, Carr's team has scored fewer than 10 points in a game (the Saints scored 9 against Tampa Bay last week); Carr is 5-8 ATS in his next game, including 2-7 ATS since 2018.

For more NFL Week 5 betting stats, check out Action Network's NFL Week 5 Betting Trends, Stats, Notes.

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Patrick Everson

Patrick Everson is a senior reporter for VegasInsider. Based in Las Vegas since 1994, he's worked in the sports betting journalism/content space for more than a decade. He's most known for his deep roster of contacts behind sportsbook counters, providing readers and viewers with the ins-and-outs of how events are being bet. He's also a thought leader in the sports betting space, often appearing on or moderating panels at national conferences. More from Patrick Everson