NFL Odds Week 7: Bills vs Patriots Lines, Spreads, Betting Trends

Patrick Everson Sports Betting Expert

3 minute read

The Patriots try to get back on track as they return home to battle the Bills in Week 7 of the NFL season. Buffalo is listed as 8.5-point road favorites looking to beat New England for the 5th straight time. Coverage begins from Gillette Stadium on Sunday, October 22nd at 1:00 p.m. ET on CBS.

Here's everything you need to know about the NFL odds for Week 7 Bills vs Patriots: the opening lines, spreads, betting trends and more. Check back regularly for updates and use our BetMGM bonus code to get the most out of your action.

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots Odds

• Opening point spread: Bills -9
• Opening moneyline: Bills -450/Patriots +350
• Opening total: Over/Under 43.5 points scored
• Time: 1 p.m. ET Sunday (CBS)

UPDATE 10 A.M. ET SUNDAY: BetMGM initially moved Buffalo up from -8.5 to -9.5 Monday morning. On Monday afternoon, the Bills returned to -8.5 and stuck there all week before going to -7.5 Saturday.

Contrary to the move, spread ticket count is 4/1 and spread money almost 5/1 on Buffalo.

The total opened at 42.5 and steadily made its way down to 40 by Thursday. It's now 40.5, with 62% of tickets/66% of cash on the Under.

UPDATE 2:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Buffalo hasn't moved off the -8.5 opener at TwinSpires Sportsbook. Early ticket count is 2.5/1 and early money 3/1 on the healthy road favorite Bills.

"Despite all of the tickets/money on the Bills, we're still holding at -8.5. The line likely moves in the Bills' direction, if anything," Lucas said.

The total is also stagnant at 41, though unlike the spread, action is very much two-way. The Over is netting 54% of tickets, while 53% of cash is on the Under.

UPDATE 11 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Buffalo (4-2 SU/3-3 ATS) looked nothing like a two-touchdown-plus favorite in the Week 6 Sunday night game. But the Bills escaped – barely – with a 14-9 victory laying 15.5 points at home against the New York Giants.

After two straight blowout losses, New England managed to keep it close at Las Vegas. But the Patriots (2-4 SU/1-5 ATS) still found a way to not cover.

Trailing 19-17 and getting 3 points, the Pats faced third-and-15 from their own 4-yard line with under two minutes left. QB Mac Jones was sacked in the end zone, leaving New England with a 21-17 loss and Patriots spread bettors flummoxed.

The SuperBook opened Bills-Patriots prior to Buffalo's dud of a performance in Week 6. Bills-Patriots then came off the board during Giants-Bills, and Buffalo-New England will go back up Monday morning.

"The market definitely favored Buffalo more than we did when we made the line," Michaelson said, noting a quick move from Bills -9 to -9.5. "New England is playing to a very low power rating at the moment, and really conspired to find a way to not cover in Las Vegas today. The line will obviously be highly dependent on Buffalo's SNF performance."

Michaelson was commenting before the Sunday night game. Suffice it to say, Buffalo's performance was not good. So the Bills-Pats number could see some shortening Monday.

Click here for Vegas Insider senior reporter Patrick Everson's full NFL Odds Week 7 Report containing spreads, lines, and trends for every NFL matchup.

Bills vs Patriots Pick, Prediction

Action Network NFL betting expert Brandon Anderson offers this prediction:

Just lean into the pain.

The Patriots suck. It was always going to happen eventually, and it was a great two decades. Lean into the tank and bet on a Bills blowout. Buffalo has wins by 30 and 29 in this rivalry in recent years, and the Bills have wins already this season by 28, 28, and 34 while the Patriots lost by 34 and 35. If this gets ugly, it could get real ugly.

Break out the ugly blowout escalator and go for broke.

The Bills have scored 35, 24, 37, 33, and 38 their last five wins against the Patriots. Belichick hasn't had any answers for Josh Allen, and New England can't do anything on offense. Let's have a little fun at FanDuel and sprinkle the blowout escalator: Bills -19.5 (+300), -27.5 (+870), and -31.5 (+1400).

Pick: Bills -19.5 (+300)

For more NFL picks, check out Action Network's NFL Week 7: How to Bet Every Game & Every Team.

The One Stat to Know About Bills vs Patriots

Action Network NFL researcher Evan Abrams offers his top betting stat:

The Patriots haven’t closed as above a TD underdog at home since Nov. 18, 2001 as an 8.5 pt underdog at home against the Greatest Show on Turf Rams with Kurt Warner.

For more NFL betting stats, check out Action Network's NFL Week 7 Betting Trends, Stats, Notes.

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Patrick Everson

Patrick Everson is a senior reporter for VegasInsider. Based in Las Vegas since 1994, he's worked in the sports betting journalism/content space for more than a decade. He's most known for his deep roster of contacts behind sportsbook counters, providing readers and viewers with the ins-and-outs of how events are being bet. He's also a thought leader in the sports betting space, often appearing on or moderating panels at national conferences. More from Patrick Everson