NFL Odds Wild Card Weekend: Steelers vs Bills Lines, Spreads, Betting Trends

Patrick Everson Sports Betting Expert

5 minute read

NFL Wild Card Weekend continues on Saturday night with what's expected to be a lopsided AFC tilt between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Buffalo Bills. The betting odds see Pittsburgh as a double-digit road underdog following the season-ending injury to TJ Watt. Coverage begins from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park on Sunday, January 14 at 1:00 p.m. ET on CBS.

Here's everything you need to know about the NFL odds for Wild Card Weekend: Steelers vs Bills lines, spreads, betting trends and more.

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Pittsburgh Steelers vs Buffalo Bills

• Opening point spread: Bills -10
• Opening moneyline: Bills -500/Steelers +400
• Opening total: Over/Under 40.5 points scored
• Time: 1 p.m. ET Sunday (CBS)

UPDATE 3:15 P.M. ET MONDAY: The one-day postponement of this matchup didn't really change much with regard to the spread. With 3.5 hours until kickoff, BetMGM has the Bills at -10 (-105) on its NFL Wild Card Weekend odds board.

On Jan. 7, the Bills opened -9.5 (-115), and the line spent most of the past week toggling between -9.5/-10, at various juice. In the wake of the rescheduling, Buffalo briefly went to -10.5 (-105) Saturday. The Bills then returned to -10 flat.

It's two-way action at the moment for BetMGM, with 57% of bets on the Steelers and 59% of money on the Bills. But trader Christian Cipollini expects more Buffalo cash as kickoff draws closer.

"Bills money is starting to come in. But it won't kill us either way if the Bills win today. We're getting enough Steelers money to keep us OK," Cipollini said.

BetMGM opened the total at 42.5 and quickly fell back to 39.5 on Jan. 7. Last Monday, further acknowledging expected weather issues, the number plunged to 35. By Saturday, prior to the postponement news, it was down to 33.

After the delay was announced, BetMGM reopened the total at 38.5. Within 90 minutes Saturday, it was bet down to 36 (Over -120). However, it's since made its way back to 38.5. The Under is getting the bulk of action, but with such a wide variety of numbers bet, there's not much of a need.

"We're fine either way at this point. It moved around so much that we're closer to balanced," Cipollini said.

Among all player prop markets, Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown is taking the most tickets, currently at -120. So of course that means the Bills QB is also getting the most tickets in the Anytime TD market. In the First TD market, Steelers running back Najee Harris (+800) is landing the most bets.

UPDATE 4:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: The total is the bigger story in this game, at the moment. Buffalo is expected to see dreadful weather Sunday, with a high of 25 that'll probably feel much colder due to 20-30 mph winds. And for good measure, there could be some snow flurries.

That's sent the total tumbling at multiple books. TwinSpires Sportsbook opened at 39.5, quickly went to 38.5 and got steamed down to 36.5. This afternoon, it dipped another notch to 36.

The Under is netting 61% of early tickets/70% of early money.

"Low temperatures, high winds and the Steelers' shaky offense have bettors all over the Under. We'll need the Over for a sizable amount," Lucas said.

On the spread, the Bills scooted from -9.5 to -10 at TwinSpires. Pittsburgh is seeing 62% of tickets, while 65% of money is on Buffalo.

"It's Pros vs Joes. The public loves getting double digits in the playoffs, as they expect close games, especially with a low total. Sharp play on Buffalo -9.5," Lucas said.

UPDATE MIDNIGHT ET SUNDAY: Buffalo (11-6 SU/7-9-1 ATS) enters the postseason on a five-game SU run and as the AFC's No. 2 seed. The Bills trailed Miami 14-7 at halftime, but shut out the Dolphins in the second half.

Buffalo put up two fourth-quarter touchdowns, including a Deonte Hardy 96-yard punt return. That helped the Bills notch a 21-7 win as 2.5-point home favorites.

Pittsburgh (10-7 SU and ATS) won its last three SU and ATS, netting the AFC's seventh and final postseason slot. In Week 18, the Steelers beat a resting Baltimore team 17-10 catching 3 points on the road.

The Steelers drew sharp play tonight at +10 in The SuperBook's Super Wild Card Weekend odds market. That action moved the Bills to -9.5.

"We we're looking for a nibble at 10. Double digits in a playoff game, that's what some wiseguys look for," Michaelson said. "The Steelers look much better with Mason Rudolph. We're all surprised Rudolph has played as well as he has.

"Still, we're probably gonna try to stay as high as we can with this spread. Because when the public gets involved, we'd like to stay above that teaser line of -8.5/-9."

It's not expected to be as cold in Buffalo on Sunday as it is in Kansas City on Saturday night. But neither will it be pleasant. As such, the total is already down to 38.5 from a 40.5 opener.

"Potential lake-effect snow, so we're on the low end for the total. We're trying to stay ahead of the market," Michaelson said.

Click here for Vegas Insider senior reporter Patrick Everson's full NFL Odds Wild Card Weekend Report containing spreads, lines, and trends for every NFL matchup.

Check out our Best Sportsbook Bonuses Page before Wild Card weekend is underway!

Steelers vs Bills Pick, Prediction

Action Network NFL betting expert Brandon Anderson offers this prediction:

It's really hard to see Pittsburgh's offense putting up many points. The offense can't attack Buffalo's deep vulnerabilities in the weather, it's not particularly aggressive, and the Steelers are way worse in the first half and could get buried early.

Buffalo should win in the trenches, always key but especially in a low-total weather game. The Bills should run the ball and score against a Steelers defense that's typically dreadful without Watt (see above). Buffalo has found a power run game late in the season with James Cook taking on a bigger role, and this sort of game is exactly when that will come in handy. Cook and Josh Allen should control the game with a power rushing attack, and Allen can throw into the wind if needed too with his big arm.

Buffalo has also cut turnovers under the new coordinator, and it's hard to see Pittsburgh competing without some goofy Allen turnovers. The Bills have five double-digit wins this year, all by at least 21 points. Buffalo wins comfortably often, with 31 of the last 44 Bills wins coming by double digits (71%). This is a high line, especially with such a low total, but I just don't expect Buffalo to struggle at all here.

Pick: Bills -9.5

For more NFL picks, check out Action Network's NFL Wild Card Weekend: How to Bet Every Game & Every Team.

The One Stat to Know About Steelers vs Bills

Action Network NFL researcher Evan Abrams offers his top betting stat:

Mike Tomlin road unders: they are 83-61-1 (57.6%) as coach of the Steelers, best of any coach last 20 years. It is 58-27-1 (68.2%) last decade.

For more NFL betting stats, check out Action Network's NFL Wild Card Weekend Betting Trends, Stats, Notes.

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Patrick Everson

Patrick Everson is a senior reporter for VegasInsider. Based in Las Vegas since 1994, he's worked in the sports betting journalism/content space for more than a decade. He's most known for his deep roster of contacts behind sportsbook counters, providing readers and viewers with the ins-and-outs of how events are being bet. He's also a thought leader in the sports betting space, often appearing on or moderating panels at national conferences. More from Patrick Everson