NFL Preseason Week 3 Odds: Big Line Moves a Familiar Refrain
NFL preseason Week 3 odds brings the exhibition games to a close. While many teams have already hammered their starting lineups into shape and will rest players this week, others are still sorting things out, particularly at quarterback.
That's led to some noteworthy moves in odds for NFL preseason Week 3.
Here’s everything you need to know about NFL preseason Week 3 odds on a few notable matchups: opening lines, spreads and betting trends, as multiple oddsmakers provide their insights. Check back regularly for updates and use our BetMGM bonus code to get the most out of your action.
NFL Preseason Week 3 Odds
New England Patriots vs Washington Commanders Odds
- Opening point spread: Pick 'em
- Opening moneyline: Patriots -110/Commanders -110
- Opening total: Over/Under 33.5 points scored
- Time: 8 p.m. ET Sunday (NBC)
UPDATE 7:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Thirty minutes before kickoff, the Patriots are out to 7-point favorites in BetMGM Nevada's odds for NFL preseason Week 3. This line has seen huge movement since Monday, shifting 9.5 points overall.
Washington opened -2.5 Monday morning, but that day brought news that Jayden Daniels will be the Commanders' regular-season starter. With that came the correct assumption that Daniels isn't playing tonight. So the line sped all the way to Patriots -5.5 by Monday afternoon.
The number dipped to Pats -4 Wednesday, but rebounded to -5.5 Friday. New England got to -6.5 earlier this evening and is now -7 (-105).
"We never really got hit Monday. It was moving so fast," BetMGM Nevada's Scott Shelton said of action in the sportsbook operator's Las Vegas market. "Tickets are almost dead even, actually a few more on the Commanders. Money is running 2/1 in favor of the Patriots.
"We need the 'dog and Under, the usual for a Sunday night game outcome."
The total opened at 35.5 and got as low as 32.5 Saturday morning. But it moved to 34.5 Saturday afternoon, 35.5 this morning and 36.5 early this evening.
"Pretty much all the money is on the Over, 4/1, and tickets 1.5/1 on the Over," Shelton said.
UPDATE 5:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: As expected, Jayden Daniels won't play for Washington. On the flip side, Jacoby Brissett and Drake Maye will get snaps for New England.
Fanatics Sportsbook opened Monday at Commanders -1.5, but within a few hours – due to news on anticipated starters – the line sprinted all the way to Patriots -5.5. The Pats are now out to -6.5 (-115) in NFL preseason Week 3 odds.
"I expect the Commanders not to play a lot of their starters," Useloff said. "I figured Brissett would be the starter for the Patriots. I'm a little surprised to see Maye get buzz to potentially start Week 1. A lot of [betting] interest probably stems from the Drake Maye hype.
"I think both those quarterbacks will see a lot of minutes. But this is not one that we'll be super tuned into from a liability perspective."
UPDATE 2:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Jacoby Brissett and No. 3 overall draft pick Drake Maye will both see action for New England. That's prompted DraftKings to make a sizable shift in odds for NFL preseason Week 3.
Early Monday, Washington opened -2.5. But by Monday afternoon, the number jumped the fence all the way to New England -5.5, with several stops along the way.
The betting splits are disparate, though, with 66% of early spread tickets on the Commanders and 82% of early spread money on the Patriots.
DraftKings opened the total at 35.5 and fell to 34.5 by Monday morning. It's now at 34 (Under -115), with 90% of tickets and dollars on the Under.
UPDATE 8 P.M. ET MONDAY: This line is among the biggest movers in NFL preseason Week 3 odds. One big reason why: Washington earlier today named rookie Jayden Daniels, the No. 2 overall pick, as the regular-season starter.
So it stands to reason that Daniels won't play Sunday night. Therefore, a short time after The SuperBook opened at pick this afternoon, the Patriots went to -2, then -2.5. Within two hours, the line stretched to New England -5, with stops at -3 and -4.5 along the way.
The moneyline correspondingly went from -110 on both sides to Patriots -240/Commanders +200.
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"Washington is going to play nobody. So another early 5-point move," Michaelson said of the point spread. "I'm sure it'll eventually come down closer to the opener. But New England is more likely to play starters, so we'll need Washington."
In preseason Week 2, the Patriots (1-1 SU/ATS) edged Philadelphia 14-13, but failed to cash as 3-point home favorites. It appears new coach Jerod Mayo would like to see more out of rookie QB Drake Maye – the third overall pick – before naming the regular-season starter.
Washington has no such concerns about who's starting, despite an 0-2 SU and ATS preseason so far. On Saturday, the Commanders were lackluster in a 13-6 loss at Miami as 4.5-point 'dogs. But Daniels was an efficient 10 of 12 for 78 yards and led a field-goal drive.
Completed NFL Preseason Week 3 Games
New York Giants vs New York Jets Odds
- Opening point spread: Giants -2
- Opening moneyline: Giants -130/Jets +110
- Opening total: Over/Under 31.5 points scored
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday (NFL Network)
UPDATE 6:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: An hour before kickoff, the Giants are at -2.5 (-115) on BetMGM Nevada's NFL preseason Week 3 odds board. On Monday, the G-Men opened -1.5 and initially slipped to -1.
The Giants rebounded to as high as -3.5 Thursday morning. But that line peeled back the current -2.5 (-115) on news that both teams will be sitting most of their starters tonight at MetLife Stadium.
BetMGM Nevada – ostensibly the sportsbook's Las Vegas operation – is hoping to thread the needle tonight.
"Spread tickets are 2/1 Giants and spread money is 5/1 Giants. But they're playing the 'dog on the moneyline, 4/1 tickets and 10/1 money on the Jets," BetMGM Nevada's Scott Shelton said. "We need the Giants to win and the Jets to cover. It's a small window, but it's not a big decision.
"In a couple weeks, it'll matter a lot more."
The total opened at a tidy 31.5, went to 31 briefly late this morning, then returned to 31.5.
"It's 2/1 tickets and money on the Under," Shelton said.
UPDATE 5:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Fanatics Sportsbook opened the Giants -1.5 and fell back to pick during the week. Big Blue then rebounded by stretching to -3.5, and the line is now Giants -2.5 in odds for NFL preseason Week 3.
"They've coined this the Snoopy Bowl," Fanatics NFL trader Ethan Useloff said of the matchup between MetLife Stadium roommates, before getting to the odds moves. "The Giants seem to have more to learn about their roster. There's a little more skin in the game for [coach] Brian Daboll to play a couple more cards than the Jets will."
By kickoff Saturday night, Useloff expects two-way action.
"It's gonna be pretty split. The Jets are a little more of a liability at this point, but it's pretty marginal," he said.
The total opened and is currently 31.5, but it's not much of a decision at Fanatics.
UPDATE 2:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: The Giants stretched from -1 to -2.5 over the past couple days in DraftKings' NFL preseason Week 3 odds. Which starters will play on either side is still unclear, and early betting is showing mixed returns.
The Jets are landing 72% of early spread tickets, while 58% of early spread cash is on the Giants.
DraftKings opened the total at 31.5, hit a low of 30.5 Monday morning and a peak of 32 Monday afternoon. The total is now 31.5 again, with 78% of tickets/59% of money on the Under.
UPDATE 8 P.M. ET MONDAY: Sure, it's a quasi-rivalry game between the two tenants of MetLife Stadium. There's probably not much to it beyond that, though.
The Jets (2-0 SU and ATS) edged Carolina 15-12 as 2.5-point road underdogs Saturday. But Aaron Rodgers hasn't played in either exhibition game, and it's quite likely that Gang Green won't risk Rodgers in the preseason finale.
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The Giants (1-1 SU and ATS) lost to Houston 28-10 catching 1.5 points on the road. Starter Daniel Jones was shaky to say the least, throwing interceptions on back-to-back drives, including a pick-six. But he followed by leading a TD drive and a field-goal drive.
"I don't know if either team is playing starters this week," Michaelson said. "If the Giants do, I'm sure we'll need the Jets."
The SuperBook opened the Giants -2 and went to -1.5 this afternoon. The total is stable at a modest 31.5 in odds for NFL preseason Week 3.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Detroit Lions Odds
- Opening point spread: Steelers -3
- Opening moneyline: Steelers -165/Lions +145
- Opening total: Over/Under 35 points scored
- Time: 1 p.m. ET Saturday (NFL Network)
UPDATE NOON ET SATURDAY: An hour before game time, the Steelers are -6.5 (-120) in BetMGM's odds for NFL preseason Week 3. On Monday morning, Pittsburgh opened -3, but got all the way to -6.5 by Monday afternoon.
The line briefly went to -6 (-120) on Tuesday, but it's been at some iteration of -6.5 ever since. Movement was entirely due to who would be playing. Since the Steelers have a QB competition in progress, between Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, they'll have starters on the field today.
"It's much more balanced action at Steelers -6.5. There's no real need on the game at the moment," BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee said.
The total opened at 35.5, got as low as 33.5, where it stood this morning, but is now back up to 35.5.
UPDATE 5:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Pittsburgh went from -3 to -6 in a hurry Monday at Fanatics Sportsbook. Now, a day out from the game, the Steelers are 7-point favorites on the NFL preseason Week 3 odds board.
Much of that movement is premised on Steelers coach Mike Tomlin giving Russell Wilson and Justin Fields significant time, as those two battle it out to be the starting QB. And that likely means many other Pittsburgh starters will be on the field. Conversely, Detroit is expected to rest key players.
"The Steelers are likely to play this game as more of a dress rehearsal for the regular season. That's why they're favored by a touchdown," Fanatics NFL trader Ethan Useloff said. "With both quarterbacks playing, and both of them being new to the team, I think that adds a lot of intrigue for the bettors.
"But our liability is sitting with the Lions, getting that many points and still being a fan favorite."
The total opened at 35 and is now 35.5, with no real decision at Fanatics.
UPDATE 2:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: DraftKings Sportsbook pegged Pittsburgh as 3-point chalk early Monday. The line quickly climbed to -6 as it became apparent the Steelers would lean heavily on their starters, while the Lions are expected to rest key players.
Pittsburgh has been stable at -6.5 since Tuesday afternoon and is currently -6.5 (-115). But early point-spread betting splits show quite a dichotomy. The Lions are netting 82% of tickets, while 82% of cash is on the Steelers.
DraftKings opened the total at 36.5 and bottomed out at 35 Monday morning. It's been at 35.5 since lunchtime Monday. The Under is seeing 89% of early tickets/94% of early money.
UPDATE 8 P.M. ET MONDAY: Pittsburgh (0-2 SU and ATS) still has a quarterback competition in progress. Russell Wilson and Justin Fields haven't distinguished themselves through two preseason games.
On Saturday against Buffalo, the Steelers mustered only a field goal in a 9-3 loss as 2.5-point home favorites. Pittsburgh's first four drives ended with punts, all behind Russell, and his fifth drive ended with a missed field goal.
Fields then came on and led a field-goal drive just before halftime, but couldn't build on that in the second half.
Detroit (1-1 SU and ATS) isn't too concerned about the preseason, resting starters last week and likely set to repeat that this week. The Lions still beat Kansas City 24-23 catching 9 points on the road.
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Steelers-Lions was a notable early mover in The SuperBook's NFL preseason Week 3 odds market. Pittsburgh opened -3 this afternoon and quickly leapt to -5/-6/-6.5. The line then settled in at Steelers -6.
"The Steelers need to get things figured out, whereas the Lions are more settled and likely will not play starters. That's how you see a 3.5-point jump," Michaelson said. "We went from 3 to 6.5 within an hour, which I think gives you an indication of which way they're betting this.
"I'm sure the line will end up coming down by gametime. It always does in preseason."
Corresponding with the spread move, the moneyline went from Steelers -165/Lions +145 to Steelers -260/Lions +220, with a few stops along the way. The total inched from 35 to 35.5.
Chicago Bears vs Kansas City Chiefs Odds
- Opening point spread: Bears -3.5
- Opening moneyline: Bears -180/Chiefs +160
- Opening total: Over/Under 35 points scored
- Time: 8:20 p.m. ET Thursday (NFL Network)
UPDATE 6 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Chicago opened -2.5 Monday morning in BetMGM's odds for NFL preseason Week 3. On Monday afternoon, the Bears went to -3/-3.5.
However, Tuesday's news that rookie QB Caleb Williams would sit out tonight brought downward moves to Bears -2.5/-1.5/-1. This afternoon, Chicago was on the rise again, going to -1.5/-2, and the Bears are now -2.5 (-105).
Relative to many preseason games this month, the range of movement is actually pretty modest.
"It's been one of the most stable preseason games I can think of in a while," BetMGM senior trader Tristan Davis said. "We have good support on both sides, so it's one of our most competitive preseason games so far."
It's a small decision, but BetMGM has a rooting interest.
"We will need the Chiefs and Under," Davis said. "The total has moved 3 points south, but with that, the majority of bettors are happy to bet Over 32.5, as of now."
The total opened at 35.5, made its way to 32.5 by Tuesday and is now 32.5 (Under -115).
UPDATE 2 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: On Tuesday, Bears coach Matt Eberflus announced that No. 1 overall draft pick Caleb Williams won't play Thursday night. That led to a noteworthy drop in the line at DraftKings Sportsbook, from Bears -3.5 down to -1 within a couple hours, with multiple stops along the way.
Those moves came after Chicago opened -2.5 early Monday and climbed to -3.5 within a few hours. That was in part due to news that key Kansas City starters, including Patrick Mahomes, won't play Thursday.
The Bears are now at -1 (-120). It's two-way action with a lean toward the Chiefs in DraftKings' NFL preseason Week 3 odds market. Kansas City is taking 55% of spread bets and spread money.
DK opened the total at 35.5, briefly peaked at 36 Monday morning and has steadily declined since. Most of the movement came Tuesday on the Williams news, leading the total to slip from 34 to the current 32.
The Under is seeing 55% of early bets, while 58% of early cash is on the Over.
UPDATE 8 P.M. ET MONDAY: Patrick Mahomes definitely won't be on the field for Kansas City on Thursday night. In fact, the Chiefs (0-2 SU and ATS preseason) plan to rest most if not all of their starters.
In Preseason Week 2, Mahomes led two field-goal drives before exiting against Detroit. Kansas City ultimately lost 24-23 as 9-point home chalk Saturday.
Chicago (2-0 SU and ATS) could counter by not playing rookie Caleb Williams, who's already got the starting job. The Bears rolled over Cincinnati 27-3 laying 6.5 points Saturday.
The SuperBook opened Chicago -3.5 and hasn't moved yet. However, the moneyline slightly adjusted, from Bears -180/Chiefs +160 to Bears -185/Chiefs +165.
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"Caleb Williams is definitely one of the major stories of the preseason," SuperBook risk supervisor Chase Michaelson said. "It's hard to tie it to betting patterns, though, since the public typically watches preseason and uses those conclusions to form opinions for season-long betting.
"We've seen lots of Bears division, playoffs and season wins Over bets."
But with uncertainly about Thursday's starters, it's hard to say how action will flesh out this week.
"The last preseason game ain't what it used to be," Michaelson said. "We'll see the line move in the direction of whomever is most likely to play their starters. Right now, it could be neither."
The total is down a half-point on The SuperBook's NFL preseason Week 3 odds board, going from 35 to 34.5.
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