NFL Odds Week 4: Opening Line and Action Report
NFL Week 4 odds give us a couple big games featuring a quartet of the league's best quarterbacks. Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills meet Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens. And on Sunday night, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs visit Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Oh, and the unbeaten Miami Dolphins face the defending AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals.
Multiple oddsmakers provide insights on NFL Week Four odds and action. Check back regularly for updates.
NFL Week 4 Odds
Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers
Opening line: 49ers -1.5; Over/Under 46.5
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET Monday (ESPN)
UPDATE 7:45 P.M. ET: Thirty minutes before kickoff, San Francisco is a 2-point favorite at WynnBet. The Niners opened -3 last Sunday night, before their lackluster 11-10 road loss at Denver. By midweek, San Fran bottomed out at -1, and the line was stable at -1.5 from late Wednesday morning until late this morning.
Just before lunch hour today, the 49ers moved to -2. The Rams are netting 66% of spread bets and 63% of spread dollars. Bettors are also on the Los Angeles moneyline (currently +110), at 73% of tickets/72% of dollars.
"We're in a pretty good spot for tonight's game," WynnBet trader Andy Morrissey said. "It's a weird one where we need the 49ers to win the game by 1 point, but we lose to the 49ers at -1.5 and -2. So it should be around a wash to them either way.
"Our biggest rooting interest will be on the Over."
That's unusual for a prime-time game, on which bettors usually drill the Over. WynnBet opened the total at 46 and plunged to 42 by Thursday, then spent a few days toggling between 42 and 42.5. But it's dipped to 41.5 late this afternoon and is now 42.
Ticket count is dead even, while 74% of money is on the Under.
UPDATE 1:30 P.M. ET MONDAY: PointsBet USA pegged San Francisco a 1.5-point home favorite a week ago, despite the 49ers' dreadful Week 3 performance at Denver. You might recall a completely non-exhilarating 11-10 Niners loss. Then San Fran actually advanced to -3 within few hours, before falling back to -1.
Since then, the 49ers have bounced between -1.5/-2/-2.5 multiple times, and they're currently at -2. Ticket count is 2/1-plus in favor of the Rams, but money is almost dead even, with a slight lean toward Los Angeles.
"At this point, we're pulling for the 49ers tonight," PointsBet media analytics manager Wyatt Yearout said. "Spread handle is fairly balanced. However, the underdog Rams are taking over 70% of moneyline handle."
The total sank like a stone in the early going last week, opening at 47 and plunging to 42.5 last Monday afternoon. On Tuesday, the number bottomed out at 42, and the number has since toggled mostly between 42 and 42.5, with a couple stints at 43.
The total is now 42.5, with 63% of tickets on the Over/62% of money on the Under.
UPDATE 4 P.M. ET FRIDAY: The Monday night game opened with San Francisco a 1.5-point favorite in Caesars' NFL Week 4 odds market. The Niners bounced between -2 and -2.5 early in the week, then Wednesday dipped to -1.5, where the line remains this afternoon.
Los Angeles is taking 70% of early spread bets, while 59% of early spread cash is on San Fran.
The total opened at 45.5, tumbled to 42.5 within a few hours Monday, then bottomed out at 42 (Under -115) Tuesday. It's been stable at 42.5 since Thursday afternoon. Betting splits aren't available today.
UPDATE 10:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Defending Super Bowl champion Los Angeles (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) has rebounded from an opening-week rout at the hands of Buffalo. In Week 3, the Rams held Arizona to just four field goals en route to 20-12 victory as 3.5-point road favorites.
San Francisco (1-2 SU and ATS) suffered an ugly Week 1 loss at Chicago, but bounced back with a home win over Seattle. But the Week 3 Sunday nighter at Denver was as ugly a loss as the final score might suggest. The Niners lost 11-10, falling short as 1.5-point favorites.
L.A. and San Fran met in last season's NFC Championship Game, with the Rams eking out a 20-17 win and the Niners cashing as 3.5-point road underdogs.
"We opened San Francisco -1.5 and closed it when the Sunday night game started," Murray said, noting Rams-49ers will go back on The SuperBook's NFL Week 4 odds board Monday morning. "I can’t recall a week with this many good games. Thursday night, Sunday night, Monday night, and even marquee games during the day on Sunday. I’ll be curious to see how they bet this one. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Rams close as the favorite here, depending on how San Francisco looks tonight."
Murray's comment came before the 49ers' eyesore of a loss to the Broncos. San Francisco will be in prime time for the second straight week, hosting this Week 4 Monday night clash.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Opening line: Chiefs -3; Over/Under 47.5
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday (NBC)
UPDATE 7:45 P.M. ET SUNDAY: About a half-hour before kickoff, Tampa Bay is now a 2-point favorite at WynnBet. That's after Kansas City opened -2.5 last Sunday night and spent time at -3 on Monday.
By late Thursday morning, the line was down to a pick 'em. This morning, WynnBet moved the Bucs to -1, and the Bucs advanced to -2 late this afternoon.
Point-spread ticket count is almost dead even, with a very slight lean toward the Chiefs. But the Buccaneers are seeing 63% of spread dollars.
The total opened at 49, quickly dropped to 47.5 last Sunday night, then cratered to 44 by Monday afternoon. That was primarily due to concerns about the aftermath of Hurricane Ian.
The total advanced to 46 by Thursday afternoon and reached 47 late this afternoon. The Over is seeing 67% of tickets and 62% of money.
UPDATE 4 P.M. ET FRIDAY: The NFL announced Thursday that this game will remain in Tampa, after discussion of possibly moving it in the aftermath of Hurricane Ian.
On Sunday, Caesars Sports' NFL Week 4 odds market opened with Kansas City a 1.5-point road favorite. Within just a few minutes, the Chiefs moved to -2.5, then on Monday morning rose to -3.
On Monday afternoon, the number went back to -2.5. That began a steady decline, which by Thursday afternoon saw this game go to pick 'em, where it sits now. Contrary to the dip, point-spread ticket count is 3/1 on Kansas City; however, point-spread cash is 3/1 on Tampa Bay, in part due to a $110,000 Bucs +1 wager.
“It’s a game you would look at on paper and think you’d get pretty equal action, with these two teams and this line being close to pick the entire week,” Caesars sports assistant trading director Adam Pullen said. “I’m surprised it’s this lopsided for both tickets and handle. I guess there’s a little more public trust with the Chiefs' offense right now than the Bucs. But the Chiefs only scored 17 points last week against the Colts, and you can’t fault the Bucs for what they’ve done on defense.
"If Tampa does what [it's] done so far this season on defense, they’ll give [Patrick] Mahomes all he can handle.”
The total opened at 48, dipped to 44.5 Monday on Hurricane Ian concerns, spent much of the week at 45 and touched 46 a couple of times Thursday. It's now 45.5. Betting splits aren't available today.
UPDATE 1 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: First and foremost, this game could be moved, depending on the impact of Hurricane Ian on the Tampa area. Potential sites include the Superdome in New Orleans or perhaps even U.S. Bank Stadium in Minnesota.
Tampa Bay continues to deal with injuries, particularly with its receiving corps, as starters Chris Godwin (hamstring) and Julio Jones (knee) continue recovering. It appears Godwin could be back this week, and Mike Evans returns from a one-game suspension, as well.
So it's not surprising that this line has moved toward the Bucs in the NFL Week 4 odds market. DraftKings opened Kansas City -2.5 Sunday night and initially rose to K.C. -3 early Monday. But the number dipped to Chiefs -1.5 by early Tuesday afternoon and has been stable at Chiefs -2 since late Tuesday afternoon.
That said, point-spread ticket count and money are both running 3/1-plus on Kansas City.
The total tumbled from 47 to 44 by Monday afternoon, again with the weather situation a driving factor. It got back to 45.5 Tuesday night, then went to 45 late this morning. The Over is seeing 57% of early tickets, while 74% of early dollars are on the Over for the Sunday night game.
UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Kansas City, No. 2 on the Super Bowl odds board behind Buffalo, was also dealt a Week 3 loss. The Chiefs (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) gave up a last-minute TD in a 20-17 loss as 4.5-point favorites at Indianapolis.
Banged-up Tampa Bay didn't get into the end zone until the waning seconds of regulation against Green Bay, yet still almost forced overtime. The Bucs (2-1 SU and ATS) lost 14-12 as 1.5-point home favorites.
This is the first meeting between these two teams since the Super Bowl of the 2020-21 season. Tampa Bay rumbled to a 31-9 victory as a 3-point underdog in that tilt.
"We opened Chiefs -3 and started taking Bucs +3 bets right away," Murray said, noting a quick move to K.C. -2.5 at The SuperBook. "I can’t argue with how impressive Tampa has been defensively this season. Their offense has done nothing through three weeks, but their defense has kept them close enough to almost be 3-0 after today. They need to get healthy on offense and give Brady some help.
"The public will be on the Chiefs here. Marquee Sunday night game and a road favorite. The public loves those."
The total also dipped a half-point tonight to 47 on The SuperBook's NFL Week 4 odds board.
New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers
Opening line: Packers -7.5; Over/Under 42.5
Time: 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday (CBS)
UPDATE 3 P.M. ET SUNDAY: About 90 minutes pre-kick, Green Bay is a 9.5-point home chalk at DraftKings, after opening at -8 and sprinting to -11 by Monday morning. The Packers retreated to -9.5 by Wednesday and -9 Thursday afternoon, and they've been stable at -9.5 since Saturday afternoon.
Green Bay is taking 60% of spread bets and 70% of spread dollars.
The total opened and 42.5 and plunged to 39 by Monday afternoon. It then spent most of the week at 40.5, before backing up to 40 on Friday afternoon. The total remains at 40 this afternoon, with 54% of tickets on the Over/60% of money on the Under.
UPDATE 4 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Caesars Sports pegged Green Bay -8.5 Sunday night in the NFL Week 4 odds market, and within about an hour, the Packers were up to -9.5. On Monday morning, the Pack stretched to -11 briefly, then bounced between -10.5 and -10 through Tuesday.
Green Bay has been stable at -9.5 since Wednesday morning, with ticket count dead even and money running almost 3/1 on the Packers. However, that money differential is largely due to a $220,000 bet on Green Bay -9.5.
The total opened at 42.5 and by Monday morning was down to 41. It bottomed out twice at 39.5, on Monday afternoon and Tuesday morning, and it's been steady at 40.5 since late Tuesday morning. Betting splits aren't available today.
UPDATE 1 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: It appears quite likely that New England QB Mac Jones won't play this week and perhaps well beyond. That led DraftKings to move from its Packers -8 opener to as high as Packers -11 Monday morning.
By this morning, the line dialed down to Green Bay -9.5. The Packers are seeing 58% of early spread bets/74% of early spread dollars.
The total opened at 42 Sunday night and dropped off to 39 by Monday afternoon, and it's been stable at 40.5 since Tuesday morning. Ticket count is close to even, with a modest nod toward the Under, and 85% of money is on the Under.
UPDATE 10:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Green Bay (2-1 SU and ATS) has won and cashed two straight since a season-opening loss at Minnesota. The Packers weren't exactly an offensive juggernaut in Week 3 at Tampa Bay, with the Bucs' defense continuing to shine. But Aaron Rodgers and Co. did just enough to net a 14-12 victory as 1.5-point road underdogs.
New England (1-2 SU, 0-2-1 ATS) still hasn't covered for bettors this season. The Patriots were 2.5-point home pups to Baltimore in Week 3 and lost 36-27. New England might also be down QB Mac Jones, who suffered what is believed to be a high ankle sprain late in the loss.
"We opened Packers -7.5 and are monitoring the Mac Jones situation. But we do not consider Jones to Brian Hoyer enough of a reason to leave the game off the board," Murray said. "We simply moved the Packers up to -9.5 for now and will wait to hear more news on Mac."
The total dipped a tick to 42 tonight at The SuperBook.
Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders
Opening line: Raiders -1.5; Over/Under 46.5
Time: 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday (CBS)
UPDATE 3:15 P.M. ET SUNDAY: The Raiders hit DraftKings' NFL Week 4 odds board as a 1-point favorite Monday morning, stretched to -2.5 by Tuesday morning and stuck at -2.5 much of the week. Las Vegas briefly hit -3 very early today, dipped to -2 by lunchtime and are now -2.5 (-120), with kickoff about an hour out.
The Raiders are netting 62% of spread tickets and spread dollars.
DK opened the total at 46, quickly dipped to 44, and then went to 43 by Monday afternoon. By Tuesday morning, however, the total was up to 46, then stabilized at 45.5 much of the week.
The total has been at 45 much of the weekend, and that's where it stands now, with 66% of tickets/62% of money on the Over.
UPDATE 4 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Las Vegas opened as a 1.5-point favorite Monday morning at Caesars Sports. The line quickly moved to Raiders -2, then on to -2.5 Tuesday morning. The Raiders have since stayed at various iterations of -2.5, save for a few minutes Wednesday afternoon at -3.
Currently, Las Vegas is -2.5 flat while attracting 62% of early spread bets/68% of early spread dollars.
The total bounced from 44 to 43 to 44.5, all within a few hours Monday. It stretched to 46 by Tuesday night, though only briefly, spent most of the week at 45.5 and is now 45. Betting splits aren't available today.
UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Las Vegas squeaked into the playoffs last season, but finds itself in an 0-3 SU and ATS hole to start the 2022-23 campaign. The Raiders closed as 2-point favorites at Tennessee and got a late TD to pull within 2. But the 2-point conversion failed, and Las Vegas lost 24-22.
Save for its stout defense, Denver doesn't look improved at all this season, even with what was anticipated as a huge upgrade at quarterback, Russell Wilson couldn't generate much offense at all in the Week 3 Sunday nighter before an utterly disappointed home crowd. But DangerRuss put together one late drive, just enough to help the Broncos (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) win an ugly rock fight 11-10 as 1.5-point home 'dogs to San Francisco.
The SuperBook opened Las Vegas -1.5 late Sunday afternoon, and Broncos-Raiders came off the board once the 49ers-Broncos game kicked off Sunday night. Neither the spread nor total moved in the early going. Broncos-Raiders will go back on the board Monday morning.
"The Raiders' season is effectively over if they lose this game. No pressure," Murray jokingly said. "Las Vegas once again lost a heartbreaker, and now they will be in desperation mode. The Broncos aren't exactly playing well themselves. I guess we will need Denver in Nevada and the Raiders in Colorado?
"I don’t know what to make of this game. Both teams have to win. Total toss-up."
Buffalo Bills vs Baltimore Ravens
Opening line: Bills -3; Over/Under 55
Time: 1 p.m. ET Sunday (CBS)
UPDATE 10:15 A.M. ET SUNDAY: DraftKings opened Buffalo at -3.5 last Sunday night, fell to -3 later that night, then rebounded to -4 on Monday. The Bills spent most of the week at -3, with a couple visits to -3.5, and they are now -3.5 (even).
Buffalo is taking 59% of tickets and money on the spread at DK.
The total opened at 55.5, tumbled to 53 by late last Sunday night, fell to 51 Wednesday night and went to 50.5 this morning. That said, 70% of bets/68% of dollars are on the Under.
UPDATE 4 P.M. ET FRIDAY: The Bills hit Caesars' NFL Week 4 odds board at -3 (-115) Sunday night and spent the early part of the week bouncing between -3 and -3.5. The line has been at various iterations of -3 since Tuesday night and is currently -3 flat.
Point-spread ticket count is 2/1 on Buffalo, but spread money is much closer, with 56% of cash on the visiting Bills.
“This is definitely the game of the day, with two of the MVP frontrunners going at it,” Caesars Sports assistant trading director Adam Pullen said. “The Ravens' defense has left a little to be desired, and the Bills' defense is a little banged up, as well. The Bills had all the preseason hype and are obviously the favorites to win the Super Bowl, but there’s still a lot of respect for the Ravens and Lamar Jackson.
"I would figure that the winner of this game will be the MVP favorite. If you win the biggest game of the week and put up good stats, people will look back at this game as a potential decider if these two are still battling for MVP at the end of the year.”
The total opened at 54.5, quickly went to 53.5 and by Tuesday morning was down to 51.5. It's been stable at 51 since Wednesday afternoon. Betting splits aren't available today.
UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Buffalo has been all the rage for months in futures markets, and over the first couple weeks on the field. But the Bills (2-1 SU and ATS) got a little come-uppance in Week 3. Josh Allen and Co. went to Miami as 4.5-point favorites and left with a 21-19 loss. That said, the Bills had two drives late and couldn't convert for the win, the first possession of which came up empty after having first-and-goal from the 2-yard line.
Meanwhile, Baltimore (2-1 SU and ATS) rebounded from its own loss to Miami. The Ravens rode a 24-point second half to a 37-26 victory as 2.5-point favorites at New England.
"We opened Bills -3, which was down a point from where we had the look-ahead number last week," Murray said. "The Bills were missing a lot of guys on defense this week, but they still kept the Dolphins in check. Despite the loss, we still have Buffalo as the best team in the NFL. We will be monitoring the injury report closely here. How is this a 10 a.m. [Pacific] game?"
Indeed, this matchup should be in the late afternoon Eastern/early afternoon Pacific time slot. And to Murray's point on the injury report, Buffalo entered the Dolphins game down six starters due to injury and had a few more crop up in the Week 3 game.
While the spread is stable tonight, the total is down a point to 54 at The SuperBook.
Miami Dolphins vs Cincinnati Bengals
Opening line: Bengals -2; Over/Under 48.5
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET Thursday (Amazon Prime)
UPDATE 1 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: On Sunday evening, Cincinnati opened as a 1.5-point home chalk in DraftKings' NFL Week 4 odds market. Less than two hours later, the Bengals were up to -3, and they advanced to -3.5 and -4 on Monday afternoon.
Cincy dipped to -3.5 Monday evening, then late Tuesday morning returned to -4 and remains there now. Part of the reason for that line movement is the questionable status of Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who apparently doesn't have concussion symptoms, but is dealing with back/ankle issues.
At the moment, Tagovailoa hasn't been ruled out. And the Dolphins are netting 64% of early spread bets/58% of early spread money at DraftKings.
The total is also being impacted by Tagovailoa's status. DK opened at 48.5, dipped to 47 by Monday morning, then to 46.5 Tuesday morning. It's been stable at 47 since mid-Tuesday morning, with 67% of bets/72% of money on the Over.
UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Miami is out of the gate with a surprising 3-0 SU and ATS start. After a huge rally to stun host Baltimore in Week 2, the Dolphins stifled the high-octane Buffalo offense in Week 3. Miami hung on late for a 21-19 victory as a 4.5-point pup.
However, Tua Tagovailoa suffered an apparent head injury in the first half. He returned in the second half, but his Week 4 status is uncertain.
AFC champion Cincinnati (1-2 SU and ATS) finally notched its first win. The Bengals had little trouble in a 27-12 victory laying 6.5 points at the New York Jets.
"This is a really tough spot for the Dolphins, off the Bills win today and the incredible win over the Ravens the week before. Now a short week and a road trip to Cincinnati," Murray said. "The Bengals got right against the Jets, and they are definitely better than their 1-2 record. The Cowboys game came down to the end, and the Bengals should’ve never lost their opener to the Steelers.
"The public will be on Miami here, but again, it’s a very tough spot. The market has already ticked up to Bengals -3."
Cincy went to -2.5 (-120) pretty quickly this evening and is now -3 (even) at The SuperBook. The total is down a tick to 48.
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