NFL Week 8 Opening Odds Report
NFL Week 8 odds reveal several matchups among teams we thought would be good. Now, we're not so sure.
Most notably, what are we to make of Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? The Bucs, now desperate for a win, hosted the Baltimore Ravens – also a bit suspect – and Tampa lost on Thursday night.
The Buffalo Bills certainly have it together. They host a Green Bay Packers team that appears lost.
Multiple oddsmakers provide insights on NFL Week Eight odds and action. Check back regularly for updates.
NFL Week 8 Odds
Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns
Opening line: Bengals -3; Over/Under 47
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET Monday (ESPN)
UPDATE 7:30 P.M. ET MONDAY: Forty-five minutes before the ball is booted, WynnBet's NFL Week 8 odds market has the Bengals -3 (-120). Cincinnati opened -3 flat back on Oct. 23, stretched to 3.5 and briefly to -4 Tuesday, then dipped to -3 (-115) buy Thursday.
Cincy is taking 69% of point-spread tickets, but 57% of spread money is on Cleveland. Moneyline play has an interesting split, as well, with tickets 2/1 Browns and money 4/1-plus Bengals.
"It's been excellent two-way action at [Bengals] -3. It seems like the Browns' moneyline has been a popular pick as we get toward kickoff," WynnBet senior trader Motoi Pearson said.
WynnBet opened the total at 45.5, peaked at 47.5 Monday, then made its way down to 45 by Thursday afternoon. The total remains 45, with tickets and money running 2.5/1 on the Under.
"The Over is a major house need," Pearson said. "The Under is something we stayed ahead of throughout the week, and respected bettors have continued to bet it down."
UPDATE 1:30 P.M. ET MONDAY: A few hours ahead of kickoff, the Bengals are laying 3 points in the college football Week 8 odds market at PointsBet USA. Back on Oct. 23, Cincinnati opened -3 (-115), then moved to -3.5 Monday and stuck there until Thursday afternoon.
At that point, Cincy receded to -3 and has been at some price iteration of that number since then. Point-spread ticket count and money are both running 4/1 on the Bengals.
Also of note: Bengals star wideout Ja'Marr Chase (hip) won't play tonight and could miss a few weeks.
The total opened at 47, went to 47.5 last Monday and then began backing up. The number went to 46.5 by Wednesday, 45.5 Thursday and 44.5 Sunday night. It's now at 45, with 58% of tickets/54% of money on the Over.
UPDATE 4:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Caesars Sports opened the Monday Night Football matchup at Bengals -3, adjusted to -3 (-120) Monday morning, then went to Cincy -3.5 Tuesday morning. The Bengals returned to -3 Wednesday, but are now at -3 (-115).
Ticket count is way lopsided, with 88% of spread bets on Cincinnati. But spread money is much closer, at 54% on the Bengals. That's primarily due to a $110,000 play on Browns +3.5, from the same Caesars customer noted above who put $110,000 on the Bucs.
And that same customer also has $110K on the Bengals-Browns Under 47. Caesars opened the total Sunday night at 46 and stretched to 47.5 by Monday morning. The total dipped to 47 Tuesday, 46.5 Wednesday and 46 this afternoon. Betting splits aren't available today.
UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Defending AFC champion Cincinnati (4-3 SU, 5-2 ATS) finally climbed above .500 for the first time this season. The Bengals built a 21-0 lead over Atlanta by early in the second quarter and coasted to a 35-17 victory giving 6.5 points at home.
The Bengals have cashed in five straight games and handed Atlanta (6-1 ATS) its first point-spread loss of the season.
Cleveland (2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS) has dumped four in a row SU, after a 2-1 start. But the Browns have been competitive almost every week, including in Week 7. Cleveland fell just short at Baltimore, losing 23-20 as a 6.5-point road pup.
"We opened Bengals -3 and haven’t seen a whole lot yet," Murray said. "I don’t anticipate this game being a big-handle game relative to most Monday night games. This matchup won’t interest many people, and it will be up against the World Series. But I'm sure we will need the Browns."
There was no movement tonight on the spread or the total.
Green Bay Packers vs Buffalo Bills
Opening line: Bills -11; Over/Under 47.5
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday (NBC)
UPDATE 6:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Less than two hours before kickoff, the Bills are laying 10.5 points at WynnBet. The Bills opened -11 last Sunday night, quickly went to -10.5, then returned to -11 Monday night. Buffalo returned to the -10.5 opener Friday and hasn't moved since.
Buffalo is landing 61% of spread tickets, but a modest majority 53% of spread dollars are on double-digit 'dog Green Bay.
"It's been pretty balanced action between -10.5 and -11. Nothing really respected through the week," WynnBet senior trader Motoi Pearson said. "We're expecting some big swings on the Bills, though, before this game kicks."
WynnBet opened the total at 47.5 and stuck there most of the week before nudging down to 47 Friday. Ticket count is 2/1 on the Over, but money is beyond 2.5/1 on the Under.
UPDATE 4:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY: The Bills opened as 10.5-point favorites on Caesars Sports' NFL Week 8 odds board. Late Tuesday morning, the line went to Buffalo -11, then -11.5, and that's where it sits this afternoon.
It's not overwhelming play on the favorite, though. Buffalo is drawing 56% of early spread bets and 67% of early spread cash. The Sunday night game looks more and more likely to mark the first time Aaron Rodgers is a double-digit underdog.
"When you see a team that’s usually not in the position of being a big underdog, it’s attractive to bettors,” Caesars Sports' Adam Pullen said. “We’re talking 11, 11.5 points, which is unprecedented for Aaron Rodgers. It’ll be interesting to see how much the public still trusts the Packers. Just like Tom Brady has earned the benefit of the doubt, Rodgers has done the same. It’s not like he has to win, it’s just losing by less than 10.
"With the way the NFL has gone this year, it’s hard not to take any team getting double-digit points. But I think the line is correct for where it should be. The Bills are that good.”
The total opened at 48 Sunday night, quickly inched down to 47.5 and hasn't budged since. Ticket count is almost dead even, with a slight lean to the Over, while 61% of money is on the Over.
UPDATE 6 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Midweek, the Bills are laying 11 points in DraftKings' NFL Week 8 odds market. Buffalo opened -10.5 Sunday night and has been pinned to -11 since Tuesday morning.
Buffalo is landing 58% of early spread tickets/68% of early spread cash.
UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Aaron Rodgers and the Packers also look nothing like a Super Bowl contender. Or even a Wild Card team at the moment. In Week 6, Green Bay got slammed 27-10 as 7.5-point home favorites.
That was just a warm-up for Week 7. The Packers went to Washington as 4-point faves and lost 23-21. Green Bay (3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS) has lost three in a row SU and four in a row ATS. Now the Packers have to travel to face the Super Bowl favorite Bills.
Buffalo is coming off a Week 7 bye heading into the Week 8 Sunday nighter. In Week 6, the Bills (5-1 SU, 4-1-1 ATS) beat Kansas City 24-20 laying 2.5 points on the road.
"I never thought I’d see the day that Aaron Rodgers would be getting 11 points, but that just shows how bad the Packers have been playing and how great the Bills are," Murray said. "Buffalo is also at home and off its bye week. It couldn’t be a worse schedule spot for the Packers. You also have to consider the schedule spot for the books. Every parlay and teaser all weekend will be running to Buffalo in the night game."
Buffalo remains -11 and the total 47.5 tonight.
San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Rams
Opening line: 49ers -2.5; Over/Under 41
Time: 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday (FOX)
UPDATE 3:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY: An hour before kickoff, WynnBet has this NFC West clash as pick 'em in its Week 8 NFL odds market. Last Sunday night, the 49ers opened -1.5 (-115), and the first move came just a few minutes later to Niners -2.
The line then toggled a couple of times between San Fran 2 and -1.5, then Friday afternoon dipped to -1 and pick, with part of that dip on the news that 49ers standout Deebo Samuel (hamstring) is out today. There's been no movement at WynnBet since Friday, and the Niners are drawing 64% of spread tickets/59% of spread money.
On the moneyline, 57% of tickets are on the 49ers, but the Rams are landing a whopping 98% of money. So although WynnBet doesn't have much of a need, the book is rooting for the 49ers to just win.
The total opened at 41, peaked at 43.5 Tuesday and receded to 42 by Friday afternoon. The Over is netting 71% of tickets, but money is almost dead even, with a slight lean to the Over.
UPDATE 4:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Caesars opened this NFC West clash at 49ers -1.5 Sunday night, moved to -2 within a few minutes, then back to -1.5 Monday morning. There's been no movement since, with ticket count approaching 3/1 and money running 4/1 on San Francisco.
In fact, Caesars Sports' Max Meyer noted that, so far, the Rams are taking significantly less spread money than any other team this week.
"Besides the Rams struggling, throw in the fact that the 49ers have had their number as of late, and it’s not that surprising to see not much action on the Rams,” Caesars Sports' Adam Pullen said. “The 49ers handled them pretty easily a few weeks ago. It’s weird to see a defending Super Bowl champion be this disappointing. You don’t expect to see this big of a fall-off from one year to the next.
"I still made the Rams a small favorite myself, so I would expect some Rams money to come in at some point. But we’ll see what happens.”
San Francisco is 7-1 SU in its last eight against Los Angeles, with the only setback coming in last season's NFC Championship Game. The Niners have also covered six in a row and seven of eight in that stretch.
Caesars opened the total at 41 and moved out to 43 by Monday afternoon. The total peaked at 43.5 Tuesday afternoon and is now 42.5. The Over is landing 54% of tickets/77% of money.
UPDATE 6 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: DraftKings pegged San Francisco a 1.5-point road chalk Sunday night, then went to -2.5 Monday morning. On Monday afternoon, the Niners backed up to -2, then Monday night went to -1.5, where the line remains tonight.
However, early action is heavily slanted toward San Fran. The 49ers are attracting 77% of early tickets and 94% of early money.
DK opened the total at 41, then made stops at 42, 42.5 and 43 on the way to 43.5 by Tuesday afternoon. This afternoon, it inched down a tick to 43, with 72% of bets/65% of cash on the Over.
UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SUNDAY: First off, can we get the NFL to put a halt to key division rivals meeting twice before the season is even halfway over? We just got this matchup in Week 4, when San Fran notched a 24-9 home victory giving 1 point.
Schedule-makers are already running this one back, among two teams that met in last season's NFC Championship Game.
That said, the theme of this article continues with the Niners and Rams, both of whom are still trying to get in gear. San Francisco (3-4 SU and ATS) picked up Christian McCaffrey in a trade with Carolina last week, helping the 49ers close as 1-point home underdogs against the Chiefs.
But San Fran got boatraced, giving up 30 second-half points in a 44-23 loss.
Los Angeles (3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS) will be well-rested this week, coming off its bye. The Rams hope Week 6 was their get-right game, a 24-10 home win laying 10 points against the Panthers.
"We took a flurry of bets on L.A. and got knocked down to Rams +2 on this one pretty quickly," Murray said. "But everyone in our room thought the 49ers should be favored. The Niners dominated the first meeting between these teams, and the Rams have been very underwhelming all season."
The total is stable at 41 tonight.
New England Patriots vs New York Jets
Opening line: Pick; Over/Under 41
Time: 1 p.m. ET Sunday (CBS)
UPDATE 10:30 A.M. ET SUNDAY: With 2.5 hours until kickoff, WynnBet has the Patriots at -3. New England opened -1 (-105) last Sunday, spent most of the week at -2.5 and went to -3 Saturday night.
New York is netting 53% of spread tickets, but 80% of spread money is on the Patriots. On the moneyline, however, tickets are almost 2/1 and money 4/1 on the Jets.
The total opened at 41, dipped to 40.5 Tuesday and bottomed out at 39.5 Friday night. On Saturday night, the number nudged up to 40, where it sits now. The Over is seeing 59% of tickets, while 56% of cash is on the Under.
UPDATE 4:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY: The Patriots hit Caesars Sports' NFL Week 8 odds board at -1 (-105) Sunday night and briefly touched pick. The line then advanced to -1.5 later Sunday night. New England moved out to -2.5 Monday morning, backed up to -1.5 Tuesday morning, then returned to -2.5 Wednesday afternoon.
The Jets are taking 56% of early spread tickets, but a hefty 89% of early spread cash is on the Patriots. That includes a $22,000 bet on New England at pick.
"It’s surprising to me that the Jets haven’t been getting that much spread action,” Caesars Sports' Adam Pullen said. “With the Jets on a roll and the Patriots coming off that loss to the Bears, you’d think there’d be more Jet money. They did have the Breece Hall injury which is a big blow to them. You can also say that the Jets were fortunate in a lot of their wins. But I still made the Jets a small favorite."
Hall suffered a torn ACL in the Jets' Week 7 win at Denver, ending his rookie season.
"I don’t think the Hall injury should be worth that much. Mac Jones isn’t 100%, and his performance hasn’t been as good as last year, but there wasn’t a big odds shift when it was reported that he was going most of the first-team reps over Bailey Zappe. The market doesn’t think there’s a big difference right now between the two Patriots quarterbacks.”
The total opened at 41, inched to 41.5 Tuesday morning and a short time later backed up to 40.5, where it remains now. The Under is taking 62% of early tickets/65% of early money at Caesars.
UPDATE 6 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: On Sunday night, New England opened at -1 (even) on DraftKings' NFL Week 8 odds board. Since then, the Pats have stretched out to -2.5 multiple times, and Bill Belichick's troops are currently -2.5.
New York is nabbing 60% of early spread tickets, while 66% of early spread dollars are on New England.
DK opened the total at 41, peaked at 42 early Tuesday, then by late Tuesday morning receded to 40.5. That's where the number stands now, with 53% of tickets on the Over/57% of money on the Under.
UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SUNDAY: New York, unlike several of the aforementioned outfits, is actually better than expected this season. The Jets (5-2 SU and ATS) have won and cashed four in a row.
New York didn't exactly light it up in Week 7, but that wasn't necessary, since the Jets were playing the offensively inept Denver Broncos. Zach Wilson and Co. closed as 2-point road favorites, because Denver was without Russell Wilson – as if that's made any difference this year.
New York shut out Denver in the second half en route to a 16-9 victory.
Meanwhile, New England (3-3 SU, 3-2-1 ATS) still has Week 7 work to do, hosting Chicago in the Monday nighter. After going on the road and nearly beating the Packers as 10-point 'dogs in Week 4, the Patriots followed with blowout wins at Detroit and vs. Cleveland.
"We moved quickly to Patriots -1.5 off a flurry of bets," Murray said of a speedy adjustment in the NFL Week 8 odds market. "People keep doubting the Jets, and they keep winning. I know I’m guilty of it myself. I don’t much like Zach Wilson’s chances going against Bill Belichick, but the Jets' defense has been awesome and should keep them in the game. They always do."
The total hasn't moved off 41.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Philadelphia Eagles
Opening line: Eagles -10.5; Over/Under 44
Time: 1 p.m. ET Sunday (CBS)
UPDATE 10:30 A.M. ET SUNDAY: The Eagles hit WynnBet's NFL Week 8 odds board as 10.5-point favorites last Sunday night and moved to -11 Monday morning. The line hit its low of Philly -10 late Monday night, and it's been at -10.5 since Wednesday.
Point-spread ticket count and money are in the 2/1 range on the Eagles.
The total opened at 44, spent the first half of the week at 43.5, dipped to 43 Thursday and 42 Saturday morning. That 42 lasted a few minutes before upping to 42.5, which is where the total sits now. Ticket count is just shy of 2/1 on the Over, but money is running 3/1 on the Under.
UPDATE 4:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Philly has been fairly stable at -11 this week in Caesars' NFL Week 8 odds market, save for a few hours Monday night/early Tuesday at -10.5. Big 'dog Pittsburgh is seeing 57% of early spread tickets/59% of early spread money.
Caesars opened the total at 44, moved to 43.5 Monday and 43 Tuesday, and it hasn't moved since. Betting splits aren't available today.
UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SUNDAY: The only reason this game made the Week 8 report is because Philadelphia is the league's lone unbeaten team, at 6-0 SU (4-2 ATS). The Eagles are coming off their bye week, after dispatching Dallas 26-17 as 7-point Week 6 home favorites.
Pittsburgh (2-5 SU, 3-3-1 ATS) notched a big upset win over visiting in Tampa Bay in Week 6. That momentum didn't carry over to Week 7. In a Sunday night slog at Miami, with neither team scoring in the second half, the Steelers lost 16-10 catching 7.5 points.
"We opened Eagles -10.5 and pulled it down when the [Steelers-Dolphins] game kicked off," Murray said, noting Steelers-Eagles will go back on the board Monday morning. "This is a helluva spot for the Steelers, having to go on the road against the undefeated Eagles with the Eagles off their bye week. I don’t anticipate much support for Pittsburgh here."
Baltimore Ravens vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Opening line: Buccaneers -1.5; Over/Under 43.5
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET Thursday (Prime Video)
UPDATE 4:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY: With kickoff about four hours away, the Bucs are currently -2 at Caesars Sports, with the line bouncing around quite a bit this week. Tampa Bay opened -1.5 Sunday night, and within a couple of hours, the line jumped the fence to Baltimore -1 on the way to Ravens 1.5 Monday morning.
By Wednesday morning, the number jumped the fence again, to Bucs -1, and this morning Tampa moved to -2 at Caesars. Point-spread ticket count is 2/1 on the Ravens, but spread money is 2/1 on the Buccaneers. A key factor in the spread money disparity is a $110,000 bet on Bucs +1.5.
"This is pretty much a public vs. sharps game,” Caesars assistant director of trading Adam Pullen said. “The public has seen the Bucs lose to the Steelers and Panthers in the past two weeks, so they could be thinking: How are [the Bucs] going to beat the Ravens when [Baltimore is] way better than those two teams. But we see it time and time again in the NFL when it looks like a team is down and out, and then they respond. You have to give Brady the benefit of the doubt, and he’s earned that right.”
Caesars opened the total at 43.5, went to 44.5 Monday, then toggled between 45 and 45.5 Tuesday/Wednesday. This morning, the number peaked at 46, where it remains now.
The Over is getting 54% of tickets, but that's translating into 87% of money.
UPDATE 5:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: A day before kickoff, the Buccaneers are 1-point home favorites in PointsBet USA's NFL Week 8 odds market. After opening at Tampa -2 Sunday night, this line bounced around the past three days. The number first jumped the fence Monday morning, to Baltimore -1, on the way to Ravens -2.5 Monday afternoon.
The line dipped to pick 'em briefly this afternoon, then shot back to Ravens -2. But shortly after that, the number again jumped the fence, to Buccaneers -1. Point-spread ticket count is 2/1 Ravens, but spread money is almost dead even, with a slight lean to Baltimore.
The total initially backed up from 44 to 43.5 Sunday night, then rose to 45 by late Monday morning. Since then, it's toggled multiple times between 44.5/45/45.5, and it's currently 45.5.
The Over is netting 59% of eary bets/74% of early dollars.
UPDATE 11 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Something is definitely not right with Brady and Co. at the moment. After a 2-0 SU and ATS start, largely on the back of a stout defense, Tampa Bay has lost four of five SU and five in a row ATS.
The latest setback was easily the most shocking. The Bucs closed as 13-point road favorites at Carolina, which a few days earlier shipped its best player, Christian McCaffrey, to San Francisco. But Tampa didn't even score until the fourth quarter, and that was a meager field goal on the way to a 21-3 stunner.
That loss came on the heels of tumbling outright as 9.5-point chalk at Pittsburgh in Week 6. Tampa, considered among the Super Bowl favorites preseason, is now 3-4 SU/2-5 ATS.
Meanwhile, Baltimore sits at 4-3 SU/2-4-1 ATS and has struggled to put away teams all season. Week 7 was no different. The Ravens twice led Cleveland by 10 in the second half and tried to give it away. But Baltimore held on for a 23-20 victory, failing to cover as a 6.5-point home favorite.
"Finally a good Thursday game," Murray said of the first matchup on the NFL Week 8 odds board. "We wanted to open Bucs a small favorite, because we think this is a backs-to-the-wall type of spot for Tampa. But the sharp guys came in right away taking the Ravens and moved us to a pick."
Late tonight, the number has now moved to Ravens -1, while the total is steady at 43.5.
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