NFL Week 1 Opening Odds Report

Patrick Everson Sports Betting Expert

10 minute read

For the latest NFL odds Week 1 updates, check out NFL Odds Week 1: Lines, Spreads, Betting Trends for Every Game

NFL Week 1 odds have percolated for a couple of months now. And if we're being honest, the regular season can't start soon enough.

The 2023-24 campaign kicks off Sept. 7 with a Thursday night game between the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs and the Detroit Lions. And the weekend ends with a Monday night matchup between the Buffalo Bills and the New York Jets, who will trot out new QB Aaron Rodgers.

Casey Degnon, senior risk supervisor at The SuperBook, provides early insights on NFL Week One odds and action. Check back regularly for updates.

NFL Week 1 Odds

Detroit Lions vs Kansas City Chiefs

Opening line: Chiefs -7; Over/Under 54
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET Thursday, Sept. 7 (NBC)

UPDATE FRIDAY, JULY 28: More than two months ago, The SuperBook opened Kansas City as a 7-point chalk. Since then, not even the juice has budged for this regular-season opener.

"No movement on the side, but we have taken some action on the underdog Lions +7," Degnon said. "More money on the Lions via straight bets, but there is more parlay liability built up on the Chiefs -7. Some parlays are also tied to the Over, and we are up a half point to 54.5 from the opener of 54.

"I think the current betting trend for this game will continue. The Chiefs will be tied to a ton of parlays and teasers, but I expect the straight bets to continue to roll in on Detroit."

UPDATE FRIDAY, MAY 12: Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are coming off a riveting 38-35 Super Bowl victory over the Philadelphia Eagles.

That capped a 17-3 SU season for the Chiefs. However, K.C. was one of the worst spread-covering teams in the NFL last season, going 7-12-1 ATS, including 5-11-1 ATS in the regular season.

Detroit went 9-8 SU and a more robust 12-5 ATS while finishing the season strong. The Lions went 8-2 SU/9-1 ATS in their last 10 games, nearly nabbing a Wild Card spot in the process.

"It's somewhat surprising to see the Lions on opening night, but there are expectations in Detroit this year," Degnon said, before pulling back the curtain on The SuperBook's opening line. "We were between Chiefs -6.5 and -7 before landing on 7. Not too much action yet, but I think the Chiefs will be extremely popular among teasers and parlays.

"So I think we'll be rooting for Dan Campbell's bunch to pull the upset come opening night."

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets

Opening line: Pick; Over/Under 46
Time: 8:15 pm. ET Monday, Sept. 11 (ESPN/ABC)

UPDATE FRIDAY, JULY 28: Early Buffalo action took this Monday Night Football clash off of pick 'em in The SuperBook's NFL Week 1 odds. But the line has been stable since then, for more than two months.

"We opened this game at pick, and it was all one-way traffic on the Bills," Degnon said. "We're up to -1 now with the rest of the market. I think the Bills love will continue up until kickoff Monday night."

The total quickly moved from 46 to 47 when this game first hit the board, but it hasn't budged since.

"Not much action on the total as of now. We are still at 47," Degnon said.

UPDATE FRIDAY, MAY 12: New York acquired four-time NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers in an April trade with the Green Bay Packers. So needless to say, fans of the J-E-T-S have quite lofty expectations this year – Super Bowl expectations, even.

That would represent a massive jump from the 2022-23 campaign, when the Jets went 7-10 SU (8-9 ATS).

Meanwhile, Buffalo was the Super Bowl favorite much of last season. But the Bills (14-4 SU, 8-9-1 ATS) dropped out in the divisional playoff round. Josh Allen and Co. got rocked at home by the Cincinnati Bengals 27-10.

Despite the Bills-Jets matchup being four months away, the first Monday Night Football game of the year is already drawing interest in The SuperBook's NFL Week One odds market.

"We took some early Bills money, which we kind of expected, just because some other shops have the Bills as a small favorite," Degnon said. "We were back and forth on who the favorite should be, so we decided pick was the right line. I think this game will write some good two-way all the way up until kickoff."

A day after the 2022-23 schedule release, this line is stable at pick 'em. But the total is already up a point to 47 at The SuperBook.

Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants

Opening line: Cowboys -3; Over/Under 46
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, Sept. 10 (NBC)

UPDATE FRIDAY, JULY 28: This line has toggled between Cowboys -3 and -3.5 multiple times, and at multiple prices. Dallas has been steady at -3.5 flat since July 6.

"We've taken some action on the Cowboys since opening -3," Degnon said. "Ticket count and money are more than 3/1 in favor of Dallas. I think we'll see some more balanced action as we get closer to opening night. Not a lot of action of the total yet."

When odds first posted May 11, the total opened at 46 and went to 46.5 within a couple of hours. There's been no movement since.

UPDATE FRIDAY, MAY 12: The Sunday Night Football opener features an NFC East clash between two teams that reached the playoffs last year.

Dallas (13-6 SU, 10-8-1 ATS) got to the divisional round before bowing out in a 19-12 rock-fight loss to the host San Francisco 49ers.

New York (10-8-1 SU, 14-5ATS) was the NFL's top spread-covering outfit last season. The Giants got a Wild Card bid and in that round beat Minnesota on the road. But like the Cowboys, the G-Men exited in the divisional round, getting blasted at Philadelphia 38-7.

"It feels like the NFL loves this matchup on Sunday Night Football Week 1," Degnon said. "The Cowboys were always going to be the favorite. There was just some discussion at what number, 2.5 or 3. We went with 3, and I'm interested to see where the action comes in, because the Cowboys are always popular among the public.

"But I could also see some love for the home 'dog Giants."

Philadelphia Eagles vs New England Patriots

Opening line: Eagles -5; Over/Under 46
Time: 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, Sept. 10 (CBS)

UPDATE FRIDAY, JULY 28: Interestingly, there's been zero spread or total movement for a matchup featuring Jalen Hurts and his defending NFC champion Eagles. There hasn't even been a juice adjustment to this point.

"Not much action on this game so far, but I expect to see some Eagles action as we get closer to kickoff," Degnon said.

UPDATE FRIDAY, MAY 12: Defending NFC champion Philadelphia gets sent on the road in Week 1. The Eagles gave Kansas City all it could handle in Super Bowl 57, losing 38-35 as 1.5-point underdogs.

That wrapped up a 16-4 SU campaign for Philly (10-10 ATS).

New England did not make the playoffs last season. The Patriots went 8-9 SU/7-9-1 ATS, losing five of their last seven games (1-6 ATS).

"It's rare that you see a Bill Belichick team getting this many points at home. But the Eagles are coming off a strong Super Bowl performance and looked poised to make a run in the weak NFC again this year," Degnon said. "I think the public will be backing Philly here, and I expect we'll be rooting for New England come September."

San Francisco 49ers vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Opening line: 49ers -3; Over/Under 41
Time: 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Sept. 10 (FOX)

UPDATE FRIDAY, JULY 28: The 49ers held steady as 3-point road favorites from May 11-June 20. Then The SuperBook nudged San Fran down a notch to -2.5, where the number remained until July 25.

"We took some sharp action on the home 'dog Steelers +3, moving us to 2.5," Degnon said. "I think we will see some public money come in on the 49ers."

On July 25, the line returned to the opener of Niners -3.

The total initially ticked from 41 to 41.5 on May 14, then stuck there until July 16, when it returned to the 41 opener.

"Nothing to the total yet," Degnon said.

UPDATE FRIDAY, MAY 12: San Francisco notched Wild Card and Divisional Round wins to reach the NFC Championship Game. But for the second straight season, that's where the Niners' year ended.

Rookie Brock Purdy led a big late-season run for the QB-injury-plagued 49ers. But Purdy himself got hurt in the NFC title game, and San Fran got drilled by Philadelphia 31-7.

The Niners expect Purdy to recover from elbow surgery in time for training camp.

Pittsburgh is coming off a 9-8 SU/10-7-1 ATS campaign. But the Steelers finished with a flurry, winning their last four SU and ATS as part of an overall run of 6-1 SU and ATS.

"We were between 49ers -2.5 and -3 here, but opted for the higher number," Degnon said of The SuperBook's opener. "I think the Steelers will be a little better than people think this year, but San Francisco still has one of the best rosters in the league. I think we'll see some good two-way, but ultimately, I would be surprised if we don't need Pittsburgh outright."

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears

Opening line: Bears -3; Over/Under 45.5
Time: 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, Sept. 10 (FOX)

UPDATE FRIDAY, JULY 28: This line moved just a few hours after NFL Week One odds went up, with The SuperBook moving Chicago from -3 to -2.5. There's been no movement since, although the road chalk is getting attention.

"It's been all Bears so far, which doesn't surprise me, because it feels like the public is off the Packers this year," Degnon said. "We haven't moved off -2.5, but I think we will continue to see Chicago support at this number. Not too much on the total yet."

That said, the total has seen two adjustments so far. It moved from 45.5 to 45 right away on May 11, then to 44.5 on June 28.

UPDATE FRIDAY, MAY 12: The post-Aaron Rodgers era begins, and as such, Green Bay is an underdog in its season opener. And the Packers have a bitter taste in their collective mouth after last season's ending.

Rodgers and the Packers needed only to win at home against Detroit to make the playoffs. But Green Bay, laying 4.5 points, lost outright 20-16 to finish 8-9 SU and ATS.

Chicago is coming off an awful year, posting the worst record in the NFL at 3-14 SU (5-11-1 ATS). The Bears didn't notch a single win after Week 7, going 0-10 SU (2-8 ATS).

"With the Rodgers era over in Green Bay, the Bears are actually a favorite in this series for once," Degnon said. alluding to Chicago being a 'dog in the last eight meetings vs. Green Bay. "It's tough to say what you're going to get out of Jordan Love right away, but we actually took some action on the Packers +3, as well as on Under 45.5. The Bears played to some high numbers last year, so it'll be interesting to see where this total goes."

A day after NFL Week 1 odds opened, the Bears nudged down to -2.5 at The SuperBook. The total also dipped a half-point to 45.

Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos

Opening line: Broncos -3.5; Over/Under 44
Time: 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, Sept. 10 (CBS)

UPDATE FRIDAY, JULY 28: The Broncos landed on The SuperBook's NFL 1 odds board as 3.5-point faves, and the line hasn't moved since.

"Action on this game has been pretty split so far, but slightly more tickets on Denver," Degnon said. "I think this game will continue to write good two-way up until kickoff. The total is staying firm at 44.5."

The total has been at 44.5 since May 12, a day after opening at 44.

UPDATE FRIDAY, MAY 12: Denver made what it thought was a huge splash last year by acquiring Russell Wilson in a trade with the Seattle Seahawks. But the Wilson-led offense was an eyesore pretty much all season.

The Broncos went 5-12 SU (7-10 ATS) and fired first-year coach Nathaniel Hackett the day after Christmas, with two games remaining. A day before the firing, Denver suffered a 51-14 road beatdown at the hands of an equally awful Los Angeles Rams outfit.

Denver then hired Sean Payton, hoping the longtime successful Saints coach can revive the organization.

Las Vegas wasn't much better last season, finishing 6-11 SU (8-9 ATS). The Raiders kept Josh McDaniels as coach, but didn't retain QB Derek Carr, who moved on to the New Orleans Saints.

Las Vegas subsequently signed former 49ers starter Jimmy Garoppolo.

"We were anywhere between Broncos -3 and -4.5 on this game, before landing 3.5," Degnon said. "Denver was bad last year, but I think the expectation is that the Broncos can't be worse, and Sean Payton should make them better. The Jimmy G era is underway in Vegas and gets a tough ask in Week 1, going on the road.

"It's another game where I think we'll see good action on both sides."

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Patrick Everson

Patrick Everson is a senior reporter for VegasInsider. Based in Las Vegas since 1994, he's worked in the sports betting journalism/content space for more than a decade. He's most known for his deep roster of contacts behind sportsbook counters, providing readers and viewers with the ins-and-outs of how events are being bet. He's also a thought leader in the sports betting space, often appearing on or moderating panels at national conferences. More from Patrick Everson