NFL Divisional Round Odds and Action Report
NFL divisional round odds are on the board, and bettors are already weighing in on the four matchups, after a wild Super Wild Card Weekend. The opening round included the upstart Jacksonville Jaguars posting one of the biggest comebacks in NFL postseason history
Now. the fourth-seeded Jags travel to face the No. 1 seed Kansas City Chiefs. Also, the top-seeded Philadelphia Eagles meet the New York Giants for the second time in three weeks.
Multiple oddsmakers provide insights on NFL divisional round odds. Check back all week for updates.
NFL Divisional Round Odds
Dallas Cowboys vs San Francisco 49ers
Opening line: 49ers -3.5; Over/Under 46
Time: 6:30 p.m. ET Sunday (FOX)
UPDATE 4:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY: San Francisco is a 4-point favorite on PointsBetUSA's NFL Divisional round odds board. That matches the -4 opener Monday night, and the line dipped to Niners -3.5 several times during the week, including three times today. But the number always returned to San Fran -4.
The 49ers are drawing 55% of spread tickets, while the Cowboys are nabbing 57% of spread money. Similarly, 58% of moneyline tickets are on San Fran, while 59% of moneyline dollars are on Dallas.
"Good two-way action on the spread and the moneyline," PointsBet sports analyst Mike Korn said.
The total opened at 45.5 and spent much of the week toggling between 46 and 46.5. On Saturday, the total peaked at 47, then this afternoon fell back to 46. It's now at 46.5.
The Over is netting 67% of tickets, but money is closer to two-way, at 58% on the Over.
On the player props front, Niners running back Christian McCaffrey is definitely an issue for PointsBet.
"Big liability on McCaffrey to score a touchdown, so we'll be rooting for him to stay out of the end zone," Korn said.
UPDATE 3 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Jim "Mattress Mack" McIngvale's fingerprints are now all over this contest. On Thursday, McIngvale placed two $1 million Cowboys moneyline bets with Caesars Sports, at +170 and +165. So if Dallas wins outright, Mattress Mack would win $3.35 million – which, per usual, would go to offset a promotion being run by the Houston furniture store magnate.
Those wagers came in the wake of McIngvale's $200,000 bet Monday on Dallas +625 to win the NFC championship. If that ticket hits, Mack nets another $1.25 million from Caesars.
McIngvale hasn't bothered with the Cowboys-49ers spread. San Francisco opened -4.5, then toggled between -4 and -3.5 several times throughout the week in Caesars' NFL divisional round market. The Niners have been stable at -4 since Thursday afternoon.
San Francisco is seeing 63% of spread tickets, but just 47% of spread money, even with one Caesars bettor putting $220,000 on 49ers -3.5. And thanks to the Mattress Mack bets, Dallas is attracting 62% of tickets and 90% of money.
“I think this line is a little low still,” Caesars Sports' Adam Pullen said. “Tampa Bay is not San Francisco, and you can make a case that San Francisco is the best team in the NFC. You have to give credit to Dallas for taking care of business last weekend, but the 49ers are a totally different animal. I think there’s a recency factor with Dallas playing in the final game last week, and they looked great to everyone. But in my opinion, this line is more apt to go higher than it is to go lower.”
Caesars opened the total at 46, peaked at 47 Tuesday morning, returned to 46 Wednesday morning, then settled at 46.5 Thursday night. Tickets and money are in the 2/1 range on the Over.
UPDATE 9 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: On Sunday night, TwinSpires opened the Niners -3.5 on the NFL divisional round odds board. The line then ticked up to -4, but it's now back to the -3.5 opener. San Francisco is seeing 65% of early spread tickets/62% of early spread money.
"It's mainly 49ers money," TwinSpires' Zachary Lucas said of spread and moneyline action. "The 49ers moneyline is our biggest liability here, with 5/1 tickets and 8/1 money so far."
The total nudged from 45.5 to 46 at TwinSpires on two-way play, with the Over netting 55% of tickets/57% of dollars.
UPDATE 11:30P.M. ET MONDAY: The scorching-hot 49ers – 11-0 SU/9-2 ATS in their last 11 games – now have an opponent listed on the NFL divisional round board: the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas went to Tampa Bay tonight and rumbled over Tom Brady and Co., routing the Buccaneers 31-14 as a 2.5-point chalk.
The Cowboys (13-5 SU, 10-7-1 ATS) bounced back from a dismal Week 18 performance, a 26-6 loss giving 7.5 points at Washington.
San Fran and Dallas met in the Wild Card round last season, with the Niners notching a 23-17 road victory. For Sunday's divisional matchup, the 49ers opened -3.5 at The SuperBook, with a total of 46.
"We were between 49ers -3 and -4 on this game, so we landed on -3.5," said Casey Degnon, senior risk supervisor at The SuperBook. "So far, it's been one-way traffic on the Niners minus the points. Nothing too significant to move us off the opener yet. As the week goes on, I'm sure we will see some money backing Dallas.
"I think we'll end up needing the Cowboys once you factor in parlays, but it will be curious to see how the betting plays out and where this line closes."
Degnon said some smaller bets landed on the Over right out of the gate, but the total remains 46.
Some smaller bets on the over but also still at the opener (46).
UPDATE MIDNIGHT ET SUNDAY: Right now, in physics terms, San Francisco looks like both the immovable object and the unstoppable force. Sure, Seattle gave the Niners a go in the first half, with the Seahawks actually leading Saturday's Super Wild Card opener 17-16 at the break.
But the 49ers then ripped off 25 consecutive points in the second half and breezed to a 41-23 victory as 9-point home favorites. San Fran (14-4 SU, 12-6 ATS) is on tears of 11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS.
Now, the Niners await the result of Monday night's Wild Card game between the Cowboys (12-5 SU, 9-7-1 ATS) and Buccaneers (8-9 SU, 4-12-1 ATS). San Francisco met Tampa Bay in Week 14, rumbling to a 35-7 victory giving 3.5 points at home.
Cincinnati Bengals vs Buffalo Bills
Opening line: Bills -5; Over/Under 49.5
Time: 3 p.m. ET Sunday (CBS)
UPDATE 2 P.M. ET SUNDAY: An hour before kickoff, the Bills are laying 5.5 points in PointsBet USA's NFL divisional round odds market. Last Sunday night, Buffalo opened -4, then climbed to -5 by late Monday night, and the number toggled between -5 and -5.5 from Wednesday-Friday.
Since Friday night, the line has bounced between -5.5 and -6 multiple times. Contrary to the move up on the Bills, the Bengals are seeing 60% of spread tickets/64% of spread money. The moneyline is closer to split, with tickets almost dead even and 57% of money on Buffalo.
"Spread and moneyline are both [somewhat] balanced," PointsBet sports analyst Mike Korn said. "The book will be rooting for the Under."
The total opened at 50.5, fell back to 48 by Tuesday morning, then went to 48.5 Thursday morning. Since then, the number has bounced mostly between 48.5 and 49, along with a couple short stints at 49.5 this morning.
As kickoff approaches, the total is 48.5, with tickets and money beyond 3/1 on the Over.
UPDATE 3 P.M. ET FRIDAY: After opening Bills -4 (-105), the line stretched out to -5.5 by Monday afternoon at Caesars Sports. On Monday night, Buffalo backed up to -5. The number has been stable at Buffalo -5.5 since Wednesday afternoon.
Part of the reason for the line moving up is that Cincinnati – which last month lost right tackle La'el Collins to a knee injury – will be minus two more offensive lineman Sunday. Left tackle Jonah Williams (knee) and right guard Alex Cappa (ankle) were both ruled out.
In addition, Buffalo has landed three six-figure bets at Caesars: $330,000 on Bills -5 from one bettor; and another customer who spread another $330,000 across two bets, with $110,000 at -4 and $220,000 at -5. Point-spread ticket count is almost 2/1 on the Bengals, while spread money is about 2.5/1 on the Bills, due to those big plays.
“There’s a chance we go up to 6, but I think 6 is a take [on the Bengals],” Caesars' Adam Pullen said. “Right now, the action is pretty balanced [when the line has been] at 5.5. The Bengals have some offensive line issues, which obviously is not ideal, but I think it’s going to be a close game. They were so hot down the stretch, and last week was their first non-cover in 2.5 months. I think the Bengals still have the respect of bettors, even though everyone saw last week that they were pretty fortunate to win.”
Some snowfall is likely Sunday afternoon in Buffalo. The total opened at 50 Sunday night, moved to 49.5 in short order and peaked at 50.5 Tuesday morning. By Wednesday, the number receded to 48, then by Thursday evening rebounded to 49, where it sits now.
Ticket count is 4/1-plus and money 3/1 on the Over.
UPDATE 9 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Buffalo has been on the move in TwinSpires Sportsbook's NFL divisional round odds market. The Bills opened -4, advanced to -4.5 and are now -5
However, opinion is split, with 68% of early spread tickets on the Bengals and 59% of early spread money on the Bills.
"It's Pros vs. Joes, with the Pros on Bills -4 and -4.5," TwinSpires' Zachary Lucas said. "There's also sharp play on the Under."
The total is down to 48 from a 50 opener, with the Over drawing 69% of tickets, but just 53% of money.
UPDATE MIDNIGHT ET SUNDAY: These two teams met in a high-stakes Week 17 Monday night showdown. With host Cincinnati holding a 7-3 first-quarter lead, Buffalo safety Damar Hamlin suffered a cardiac event on the field, and the game was first suspended and later canceled. Hamlin has since made an incredible recovery and is out of the hospital, continuing to recover at home.
Buffalo, which most of this season was the Super Bowl odds favorite, nearly got an early postseason send-off on Super Wild Card Weekend. As expected, the Bills (14-3 SU, 8-8-1 ATS) bolted to a 17-0 lead against the undermanned Dolphins.
But Josh Allen threw two second-quarter INTs, leading directly to 11 Dolphins points off a field goal, then a touchdown/2-point conversion. That tied the game at 17. Buffalo rebounded with a field goal in the waning seconds of the first half to go up 20-17.
However, the Bills, laying a hefty 14 points at home, had to claw the rest of the way, squeaking out a 34-31 victory Sunday. Allen and Co. are on an 8-0 SU surge, but are just 4-4 ATS in that span.
Meanwhile, Cincinnati (13-4 SU and ATS) is on a nine-game SU win streak and is a scorching 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games. In the Sunday night Wild Card game, the Bengals escaped with a 24-17 victory as 9-point favorites against the shorthanded Baltimore Ravens.
Cincy's game-winning score came by one of the most unlikely means. With the game tied at 17 and Baltimore facing third-and-goal at the 1, Ravens QB Tyler Huntley attempted to jump and stretch the ball over the goal line. But Huntley fumbled, and Bengals defensive end Sam Hubbard scooped it up and ran 98 yards for the score.
"We took some respected money right away on the Bengals +5, knocking us down to 4.5," The SuperBook's Casey Degnon said of early action in the NFL divisional round odds market. "It's been all Cincinnati so far, but as the week progresses, I'm sure we will see some money backing Buffalo, as well. Some sharp money also came in on the Over, moving us up a full point to 50.5."
New York Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles
Opening line: Eagles -7; Over/Under 46.5
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET Saturday (FOX)
UPDATE 6:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Philadelphia landed on PointsBet USA’s NFL divisional round odds board at -7.5 (-105) Sunday night and within minutes dipped to -7 (-115). The line returned to Eagles -7.5 Monday afternoon and stuck there – with a couple of juice adjustments to -105 and -115 – until nudging up to -8 late Thursday night.
Since then, Philly has bounced between -8/-7.5 several times and is currently -8, less than two hours before kickoff. The Giants are seeing 68% of spread tickets/62% of spread money.
"Good two-way action on the spread and moneyline," PointsBet sports analyst Mike Korn said. "Big liability on the Over. The book needs the Under."
The total opened at 47 and spent most of the week at 48, though it peaked several times at 48.5 early and late in the week. It backed up to 47.5 several times, as well. In fact, the total is currently 47.5, although ticket count is about 2/1 and money beyond 4/1 on the Over.
UPDATE 3 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Philadelphia landed on Caesars' NFL divisional round odds board at -7.5 (+105), and within a couple minutes Sunday night dipped to -7. On Monday morning, the line returned to -7.5, and the number peaked at -8 Thursday morning.
The Eagles are now -7.5. New York is actually seeing 71% of spread tickets/54% of spread dollars. Further, the Giants are attracting 85% of tickets/70% of cash on the moneyline, where New York is currently +285. Philly, however, has taken the largest bet at Caesars, a $220,000 play at -7.5.
“Of the two Saturday games, I think the Giants will get the lion’s share of the public backing out of the two underdogs,” Caesars' Adam Pullen said. “Their spread record has been phenomenal (14-4 ATS), they’ve done very well as an underdog, and they won last week, so that’s fresh in people’s minds. We took a big bet on the Eagles -7.5 [Wednesday] night, and we went to 8. But then we got [Giants] buyback at the 8 and went back [to 7.5], a few hours after that big bet.
"That happens sometimes. You’ll have sharp bettors that you respect on opposite sides. It’s not like sharp bettors are always on the same side, no matter what.”
The total opened at 47.5, immediately went to 47, then climbed to its peak of 48.5 Tuesday morning. Shortly thereafter, the total nudged down to 48, where it remains now. The Over is drawing 71% of tickets/78% of money.
UPDATE 9 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Philly landed on TwinSpires' odds board as a 7-point favorite and advanced to -7.5. But New York is getting its share of early action, taking 66% of spread tickets and 60% of spread money.
"The Giants are a very popular 'dog," TwinSpires' Zachary Lucas said. "We saw some sharp play on Eagles -7."
The total is up a tick from 47.5 to 48, with 54% of tickets/59% of money on the Over.
UPDATE MIDNIGHT ET SUNDAY: Why not run this game back, two weeks after these NFC East rivals last met? In Week 18, the Eagles were massive 16.5-point home favorites against the Giants and got a modest 22-16 victory.
Now, top-seeded Philadelphia – which had a bye in the Wild Card round – faces New York for a second straight game.
The sixth-seeded Giants (10-7-1 SU, 14-4 ATS) were the lowest seed to advance on Super Wild Card Weekend. New York, the No. 1 spread-covering team in the NFL, dispatched No. 3 seed Minnesota 31-24 as a 3-point road underdog Sunday.
"There was some discussion on whether to open 7 or 7.5. Ultimately, we landed on 7," The SuperBook's Casey Degnon said of this line on the NFL divisional round odds board. "I expect the Eagles to be very popular among both teasers and parlays. No significant straight bets on either side yet. Some smaller bets on Over 46.5, but we are still at the opener."
Philadelphia (14-3 SU, 8-9 ATS) clinched the NFC's No. 1 seed with the aforementioned Week 18 win over New York. The Eagles, with Jalen Hurts back under center, held a 19-0 lead by midway through the third quarter and coasted to the finish line.
In Week 14 at MetLife Stadium, Hurts and the Eagles trucked the Giants 48-22 giving 6.5 points on the road.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Kansas City Chiefs
Opening line: Chiefs -8.5; Over/Under 51.5
Time: 4:30 p.m. ET Saturday (NBC)
UPDATE 3 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Ninety minutes before kickoff, Kansas City is laying 9.5 points on the NFL divisional round odds board at PointsBet USA. Late Sunday night, the Chiefs opened -9, toggled to -8.5 a couple of times, then made an extremely short appearance at -7.5 Tuesday morning.
The line quickly rebounded to Chiefs -9 and bounced between -9 and -8.5 several times the past few days, along with an occasional move to -9.5. This morning, K.C. briefly got to -10, but since then has been at either -9.5 or -9. Jacksonville is actually attracting 55% of spread tickets and 56% of spread dollars.
"Spread liability is pretty well balanced, but we have a big liability on Chiefs moneyline," PointsBet analyst Mike Korn said, noting 81% of moneyline bets/94% of moneyline dollars are on Kansas City. That's despite a hefty price, currently -500. "The book will be rooting for a Jags upset."
PointsBet opened the total at 51.5, climbed to 53 by Tuesday morning, then spent the rest of the week going between 53 and 52.5. It's currently at 52.5. The Over is netting 62% of tickets, but money is almost even, with a slight lean toward the Under.
UPDATE 3 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Late Sunday night, the Chiefs opened as 9-point favorites in Caesars Sports' NFL divisional round odds market, then within minutes fell to -8.5. Kansas City spent Thursday toggling between -8.5 and -9 and is currently at -9.
Spread ticket count is almost 2/1 and spread money beyond 4/1 on the favored Chiefs.
“The line seems to be right about where it should be. Their first game this season, it was Chiefs -9.5 and 51.5," Caesars assistant director of trading Adam Pullen said, before turning to the Jags' recent form. “Even though they won both games, Jacksonville can’t play the way they did over the last couple of weeks and expect to beat the Chiefs. They’re going to be hard-pressed to stop the Chiefs' offense. They didn’t do it in Week 10.
"Most bettors will probably be on the Chiefs and the Over, just based off what we saw last week. I’m expecting more Over money to come in, even though it’s a high total and [these two teams] went Under in Week 10.”
Kansas City won that Week 10 matchup 27-17 at home.
The total opened at 52 and initially backed up to 51.5 Monday morning. By Wednesday, the number climbed to 53, then Thursday briefly receded to 52 before stabilizing at 52.5.
The Over is taking 56% of tickets, but 72% of money is on the Under.
UPDATE 9 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Midweek, Kansas City is an 8.5-point home chalk at TwinSpires Sportsbook. The Chiefs opened at -10 and made a stop at -9 on the way to the current number. It's two-way action on the spread, with 57% of early tickets on K.C. and 56% of early money on Jacksonville.
"Sharp play Jags +10 and +9," TwinSpires director of retail sports Zachary Lucas said. "K.C. 6-point teaser got very popular once we hit 8.5."
TwinSpires opened the total at 51.5 and is now 52.5, with 72% of tickets/65% of cash on the Over.
"It's a mix of sharp/public play on the Over," Lucas said.
UPDATE MIDNIGHT ET SUNDAY: After eight weeks this season, Jacksonville was 2-6 SU and ATS, and appeared headed for another awful year. Fast-forward to now, and the Jags actually appear on the NFL divisional round odds board.
Jacksonville (10-8 SU, 9-8-1 ATS) won eight of its last 10 SU, including the last five in a row – with the fifth by far the most unlikely. In Saturday's Super Wild Card matchup against the Chargers, the Jags dug themselves into a 27-0 first-half hole. QB Trevor Lawrence threw four interceptions in the half.
But Jacksonville then rallied on offense and clamped down on defense. The Jaguars pulled out a shocking 31-30 victory catching 2 points at home. It was the third-largest playoff comeback in NFL history.
However, the Jags' reward is a trip to Kansas City to face the top-seeded Chiefs (14-3 SU, 5-11-1 ATS). Kansas City capped the regular season with a 31-13 road rout laying 8.5 points against the Raiders. The Chiefs tied with Chicago for the second-worst spread-covering mark in the league, but cashed in two of their last three games.
"There have been some smaller bets on both sides of the spread, but nothing noteworthy yet," The SuperBook's Casey Degnon said late tonight. "Even if we see some Jacksonville love throughout the week, I expect we'll be rooting for a Jaguars upset victory come Saturday afternoon, to kill all the teasers and parlays tied to the Chiefs. There have also been a couple bets on both sides of the total, but we are still at 51.5."
Jacksonville and K.C. met in Week 10 at Arrowhead Stadium, with the Chiefs winning 27-17 to push as 10-point faves.
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