Popular NFL Win Total Markets

Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert

2 minute read

The 2023 NFL season is just around the corner, and with that, betting lines are officially live for all the most popular futures markets. So, without further ado, let’s dive into the latest betting splits at BetMGM for the category of NFL Win Totals.

The Chiefs, Bengals, and 49ers share the largest win total on the board at OU 11.5, but according to BetMGM, that number isn’t scaring away any bettors from Kansas City in the win total market – at the moment, 98% of the money and 89% of tickets are on the reigning champs to go ‘over’ that number.

Believe it or not, though, Kansas City isn’t the most popular win total ‘over’ on the board, as bettors seem to be flocking to some of the smaller totals early on.

In terms of individual tickets placed, the most popular ‘over’ plays have been the Patriots at 7.5 and the Broncos at 8.5 – with 94% of wagers coming in on the Patriots to surpass their projected number, while likewise, 93% of tickets are backing Sean Payton to right the ship for Denver.

However, the money splits tell a slightly different story. 

Teams like the Dolphins and Cowboys are still very popular ‘over’ options in their respective fan-driven markets – with 99% of the money coming in on Dallas to win over 10.5 games, while 99% of the handle is also on Miami to win over 9.5.

For the time being, though, teams like Dallas and Miami aren’t garnering enough attention in mainstream markets to carve out a large chunk of the overall handle. So, where is all the money at?

A few teams, in particular, seem to be dominating the conversation when it comes to NFL Win Totals.

In terms of dollar amount, the Vikings are sneakily the most bet ‘over’ on the board, despite BetMGM taking roughly a 50-50 split of tickets on the over-under thus far. 

The Patriots and Chiefs are also taking a large percentage of money on the ‘over,’ but for the most part, that seems to be an accumulation of public action with more than 89% of tickets backing the ‘over' in those two markets.

Speaking of public action, the Cardinals at OU 4.5 is the most bet ‘under’ at BetMGM in terms of individual tickets placed, however, sharps seem to have a different play in mind.

As of June 29th, the 49ers were taking roughly 59% of tickets on the ‘over’ and 41% on the ‘under’ – but at the same time, 61% of the money wagered was on the ‘under’ in that particular market.

The Buccaneers and Raiders have also been popular fade options at OU 6.5 with over 80% of tickets coming in on the ‘under’ on those two teams – which is finally something that the public and sharps seem to agree on, as over 80% of the money is also on the ‘under’ for those two teams.

Click here for the full list of 2023 NFL Win Totals.

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson