Ravens vs 49ers Prediction, Picks, Odds | Monday Night Football Week 16

Ravens vs 49ers Prediction, Picks, Odds | Monday Night Football Week 16

Here's everything you need to know about the Ravens vs. 49ers Picks, Predictions, and Odds for Monday Night Football Week 16.

Week 16 of the NFL regular season continues with Monday Night Football on Christmas Night between the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers. Coverage begins from Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara at 8:15 p.m. ET on ABC.

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Ravens vs 49ers Prediction, Picks & Betting Odds for Monday Night Football Week 16

Matchup Spread Total Moneyline

The primetime NFL slate hasn’t exactly been spectacular this season. However, at least the schedule-makers knocked it out of the park on Christmas Night. The first two games of the day aren’t great. So sneak in your holiday festivities early, because the league has gifted us with a phenomenal football game bearing the markings of a possible Super Bowl preview in the evening slate with the 49ers and Ravens both positioned for the No. 1 seed in their respective conference entering this contest.

However, the oddsmakers seem to think these two teams don’t stack up quite as evenly as their 11-3 records may indicate. According to VegasInsider’s Patrick Everson, TwinSpires reopened the market for this matchup at 49ers -5 last Sunday, and since then the line has been adjusted to -5.5 or -6 at most shops with San Francisco drawing 54% of tickets and 63% of the money as of Wednesday evening.

Push comes to shove: the better team is favored in this spot, and when the Niners win, they usually win big regardless of opponent strength, highlighted by 10 of SF’s 11 victories coming by a double-digit point differential, including blowout victories over Dallas, Jacksonville and Philly – which in theory, is why the spread for this matchup is so steep.

In my opinion though, the spread is incredibly disrespectful to the brand of football Baltimore has played this season. The Ravens rank 4th in scoring and 4th in offensive DVOA, while on the flip side, they rank 1st in points allowed and 2nd in defensive DVOA. 

Hypotheticals are always a little bit dangerous. But truthfully,  the Ravens sit just a stone’s throw away from a record of 13-1 or 14-0 on the season, considering they led late in the fourth quarter in all three of their losses – and if they actually won one or two of those games, I believe the spread for this matchup would be much shorter. 

The 49ers are being made out to be some type of unstoppable force, and while their offense may truly be one, San Francisco’s defense is relatively beatable, ranked just 4th in defensive DVOA and 11th in yards allowed per play. 

San Francisco is laying too many points in this spot. I’m taking the six with Baltimore.

Score Prediction: Ravens 23, 49ers 20
Best Bet: Ravens +6 (-110)

BAL @ SF Odds

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Ravens vs 49ers Betting Resources

Date: Monday, December 25, 2023
Matchup: AFC North vs. NFC West
Venue: Levi's Stadium
Location: Santa Clara, CA
Time-TV: ABC, 8:15 p.m. ET

Click here for Vegas Insider senior reporter Patrick Everson's full NFL Odds Week 16 Report containing spreads, lines, and trends for every NFL matchup.

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Baltimore Ravens Betting Analysis

The Ravens’ track record may be slightly weaker than SF’s with their most impressive victories coming in blowout fashion over Detroit and Seattle. However, two of their losses were very fluky. They lost in overtime to Indy back in Week 3, and then in Week 10 vs. Cleveland they managed to lose a game in which they were leading by a score of 31-17 with less than 10 minutes left in the fourth quarter. Baltimore sits just a stone’s throw away from 13-1.

San Francisco 49ers Betting Analysis

The 49ers dropped three straight games in the absence of their top offensive lineman Trent Williams, while also being hampered by injuries to QB Brock Purdy and WR Deebo Samuel during that span. However, nobody has truly been able slow down San Francisco when healthy, highlighted by all but one of their victories thus far coming by a double-digit margin.

Ravens vs 49ers Betting Trends

  • The Ravens are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games.
  • The Ravens are 8-1 SU in their last nine games.
  • The 49ers are 4-2 ATS in their last six games.
  • The 49ers are 6-0 SU in their last six games.
  • The 49ers are 13-1 SU in their last 14 home games.
  • The Ravens are 5-1 SU in their last six games against San Francisco.