NFL Sharps Buying Falcons, Fading Commanders

Patrick Everson Sports Betting Expert

4 minute read

NFL season win totals are an ever-growing market, providing yet another popular way to bet beyond the games. And the lull of midsummer presents a potentially good time to jump on NFL win total odds.

Perhaps you think a team is underrated by oddsmakers, providing value on the Over. Or on the flip side, there's value on a team you anticipate performing below oddsmakers' expectations.

Adam Chernoff dives into two recommendations already put out by Right Angle Sports – with both plays quickly impacting the NFL regular-season win totals market for those teams.

NFL Season Win Totals

Flying With the Falcons

The Atlanta Falcons went 7-10 SU last season, but at least finished on a good note, winning their final two games. In the 2023-24 season, Chernoff and Right Angle have reason to believe improvement is coming by way of a winning record.

Right Angle's first NFL win totals release, on June 16, was a play of Falcons Over 8.5 wins, at a recommended price of up to -110. At that point, most sportsbooks had Over 8.5 at between +110 or even money.

"The Atlanta Over was a consensus among our entire team, with everyone wanting to play the Over," Chernoff said. "A couple of things stood out. In their first 11 weeks of the season, the Falcons play seven rookie or first-time starting QBs. The four veterans are Jared Goff (Lions), Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars), Ryan Tannehill (Titans) and Kirk Cousins (Vikings).

"Strength-of-schedule projections are always priced into win total markets, But seeing how much easier this schedule could play than projections was intriguing."

Further, Right Angle felt coach Arthur Smith – who went 7-10 in each of his first two seasons – is in a position where improvement must happen. And his offensive mindset could well make it happen.

"There is a lot to like about the offensive upside. It is a do-or-die year for Arthur Smith, career-wise," Chernoff said. "His modern play calling is what you want when betting a team Over. And the priority put on getting offensive pieces in place this offseason to help the strong core is something we thought aligned well with the team direction.

"We also believe QB Desmond Ridder can be better than he is getting credit for. Conclusions from discussions internally felt if Ridder can play in the QB 16-18 range [among 32 NFL starters] as a ceiling, then the Falcons have enough to go Over 8.5."

Immediately after Right Angle released the Falcons Over play, Chernoff said the price moved from between +110/even money to -115/-120, depending on the book. Now, some books are approaching or even at -130.

"This is the first time we have made win totals public," Chernoff said. "Considering we moved the Super Bowl total 1.5 points and the AFC Championship Game side 1.5 points in comparison, this was a little less than expected. But it was June!"

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Commanders in Grief

There was a point last season, in early December, where it looked as if the Washington Commanders might make the playoffs. The Commanders were on a 6-1-1 SU run and stood at 7-5-1 overall.

But Washington went 1-3 in its last four games to finish a middling 8-8-1 SU, falling short of an NFC Wild Card spot. Between a rough 2023-24 schedule and an ostensibly untested QB in Sam Howell – who played only one game as a rookie last year, starting in the season-finale home win over Dallas – it could be a long season in D.C.

On June 24, Right Angle sent out a play of Commanders Under 6.5 wins, again at a recommended price of up to -110. And again, most books had Under 6.5 priced between +110 and even money.

"Washington has a horrible schedule overall, but specifically to start. Denver, Buffalo, Philadelphia two times, and aforementioned Atlanta all in the first eight weeks," Chernoff said. "Not only do we see those teams improving on what they had last year, but the games come at the worst time for Washington, integrating [ostensibly] a rookie QB and a new scheme with a new offensive coordinator."

Eric Bieniemy left his post as Kansas City Chiefs offensive coordinator to take the same position with Washington.

"We think the slow start can cause a rift internally," Chernoff said. "There was a loss of confidence in Ron Rivera at the end of 2022. Eric Bieniemy finally got his job outside of K.C., and we are confident that he took this job in Washington in part to fulfill his desire to become a head coach, knowing Rivera in front was the most unstable of his offers.

"Bieniemy, now as the incumbent head coach in waiting, has a built-in excuse in Sam Howell at QB, who quietly has reports on him this offseason suggesting he is not ready to start."

And shifting gears at coach or QB isn't a good sign for Over bettors.

"If there is a midseason coaching or QB switch, it’s still problematic," Chernoff said. "Jacoby Brissett is not going to change this team. And the back end of the schedule has Seattle, Dallas two times, Miami, San Francisco and the New York Jets – five more contenders trending upward. Ugly year ahead for Washington."

In the wake of Right Angle's release, Washington Under 6.5 is now out to -120 or higher, depending on where you shop.

"I'm less surprised than Atlanta on this one, considering the Commanders' win total is the second-lowest in the league," Chernoff said.

Updated on 11/14/2024

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Coming Soon

If you weren't on board early enough to get the best of the price on the Falcons Over or Commanders Under, fear not. Chernoff said Right Angle is just getting started.

"We are still planning several more season-long releases, beginning as soon as this week, likely on Thursday," he said, pointing to an anticipated July 20 play.

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Patrick Everson

Patrick Everson is a senior reporter for VegasInsider. Based in Las Vegas since 1994, he's worked in the sports betting journalism/content space for more than a decade. He's most known for his deep roster of contacts behind sportsbook counters, providing readers and viewers with the ins-and-outs of how events are being bet. He's also a thought leader in the sports betting space, often appearing on or moderating panels at national conferences. More from Patrick Everson