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Super Bowl Teaser Analysis

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
11 minute read
Super Bowl 54 Prop Resources | Super Bowl 54 Betting Update

Super Bowl 54 – Teaser Analysis

Throughout this week I've touched on the historical outlook and how it may apply to this year's Super Bowl in totals, and parlay action. The only thing left is to take a look at potential teaser options and how they've fared over the years.

Depending on where you are betting, teaser options may be somewhat limited for the Super Bowl, as oddmakers know just how often these things can hit. Whether or not you decide to go this route on the big game is a decision only you can make, but I've gone back through all the Super Bowls and looked at what a 6-point teaser would have potentially brought you back then. Oddsmakers fear teasers in the sense that they could lose on all four results (teased favorite, teased underdog, teased over, teased under), and there is a lot of chatter about them being a great bet in big NFL playoff games. But has that been the reality for the Super Bowl?

Let's start there

Of note: Before you venture into any teaser plays for SB 54, it's important to note whether or not a push on a side/total gets graded as a push or a loss. Not all books are the same. For the purpose of this article, I will count pushes on a certain leg of a specific teaser as a win (more correctly, not a loss), and will make note of those pushes when I can.

Super Bowl 6-Point Teaser Results: Games that have hit all four ways

Through the first 52 Super Bowls – Super Bowl 1 did not have a total posted – there have been 9 times where teasing either side and either total would have cashed. This is the books worst nightmare as they've got to pay out everything, but 9 out of 52 is still only 17.3% of the time this has worked. And that includes SB 34 where a six-point teaser with the 'over' in the Rams 23-16 win over Tennessee would have pushed on 39 with the total closing at 45.

But it's only worked 17% of the time which does put a bit of a whole in the perspective that teasing Super Bowl games is basically a surefire way to win. You obviously can't do it blindly as there still is work needed to be more selective in landing on your selections.

Where I do believe the narrative that teasers are a bet sportsbooks drastically fear this time of year stems from is the fact that lately that has been the case. It's happened twice in recent years with the Patriots wins over Seattle (SB 49) and Atlanta (SB 51), and six of those nine occurrences have happened since the start of the century with that Rams/Titans game. The other occurrences during that time were Patriots/Eagles (SB 39), Colts/Bears (SB 41) and Steelers/Cardinals (SB 43).

In terms of what could be applicable to this year's game, we've got to look at that the point-spread that is so close to the pick'em range. In the history of the Super Bowl, there have only been three Super Bowls that closed with a point spread of -2 or less (SB 7, 16, and 49) and two of those three did ultimately land in this category (SB 16, 49) where taking a six-point teaser blindly would have worked.

Keep in mind though, in only one of these nine occurrences did we have a total posted in the 50's (SB 51), as general teaser strategy does tend to be harder on the total side of things when the total is a higher one.

Super Bowl 6-Point Teaser Results: Teasing Sides

Maybe you already have a beat on which way you'll be teasing this total, and are undecided on the side. After all, this year's game is projected to be a tight one given where the point-spread currently sits.

Historically, in the 53 Super Bowls (including Super Bowl 1 side for data purposes), 20 times it didn't matter what side you took the six points with, you would have hit. There are two pushes in that sample size (SB 7 with Washington teased up to +7 and losing 14-7, and SB 26 with Buffalo teased up to +13 and losing by 13) but the Washington Redskins were involved in both, and with them not being involved in this year's game and this year's spread not being a flat number, there really is no concern there this year.

That's still only 37% of the time that blindly teasing either side has worked out though, which you would think would be a bit higher given how profitable NFL playoff teasers seem to be to some. Again, that view point comes likely comes from simply looking at one specific side of a potential teaser so let's get to that.

Super Bowl 6-Point Teaser Results: Teasing Favorites

Teasing Super Bowl favorites down six points throughout history would provide you with a 36-17 record on that leg of the teaser. However, the heyday of this particularly strategy is far in the rear-view mirror, as from Super Bowl 5 through Super Bowl 41, it went 29-8 overall, including a 10-year run of perfection from SB 5 through SB 14.

Teasing the favorite down last year was the only winning side last year, but in the last 10 Super Bowls, teasing the favorite down six points is just 4-6 overall (40%). That being said, in the 10 Super Bowls played in Miami, teasing the favorite down six points has produced an 8-2 record (80%).

Super Bowl 6-Point Teaser Results: Teasing Underdogs

On the other side of the equation is teasing the underdog up six points, and in Super Bowl history, going that route has produced a 35-16-2 record. Again, you combine that record with the 36-17 with the favorites mentioned above and you can see where the discussion about teasing Super Bowls tends to get a highly positive spin.

Teasing the underdog has been much more successful in modern times, as it may not have worked last year, but it's record in Super Bowls played in this century (starting with SB 34) is 17-3. That's been quite the run, as it even went a perfect 12-0 from SB 41 to SB 52. Now that includes either team in the Patriots/Seahawks Super Bowl that closed as a pick'em, but if you are a believer in recent trends, teasing up the San Francisco 49ers this year is probably the way to go.

The 49ers are the much better teaser side as it is this year from a pure math standpoint as well, as you are able to tease them up through the key numbers of +3 and +7, and that's always the best way to approach teasers in general. But again, there is that lofty total you've got to deal with, and even optimum teaser strategy on the side in a game with a high total isn't as optimum as it would be in other cases.

Super Bowl 6-Point Teaser Results: Teasing Overs

Back to a sample size of 52 (omitting SB 1 in totals), dropping totals down six points in the Super Bowl would put you with a 35-16-1 record historically. That's three straight categories where we've got a win rate of better then 2/1, which is again why teaser talk gets so much this time of year. You've still got to put the two best options together though.

In Miami-based Super Bowls, teasing the 'over' has produced a 6-4 record, which includes a 2-1 record when totals closed in the 50's. Having already seen plenty of 'over' support on this year's game already, you know that teasing the total down from 54 to 48 will likely be the most popular choice in teased totals this year. That's not to say it will or won't win, just likely how it plays out. But both of those two 'overs' in this scenario (total in 50's, game in Miami) had favorites of greater then a touchdown (Denver/Atlanta in SB 33 and SF/San Diego in SB 29), so keep that in mind as well.

Super Bowl 6-Point Teaser Results: Teasing Unders

Again, we've got another 2/1 win ratio on this historic teaser leg by itself, as bumping totals up has produced a 34-17-1 record in Super Bowl history. And just like with teasing the underdogs, this has generally been the way to go in modern times.

Since Super Bowl 34 in early 2000, teasing Super Bowl totals 'under' has produced a 14-6 record, losing only twice in the past eight years. All three Super Bowls that closed with a total in the 50's during that eight-year run have cashed a teased 'under' ticket, as you'd have to go all the way back to that San Francisco/San Diego Super Bowl to find a Super Bowl with a total in the 50's that didn't cash a teased 'under' play. It's gone a perfect 8-0 since that time with totals in the 50's, and 10-1 all time in the 11 Super Bowls that closed with a total in the 50's.

Yet, that 49ers/Chargers game was also one that included a franchise involved in this year's game, and was played in Miami. Keep that in mind as well.

Kansas City 6-Point Teaser Results: 2019

Taking six extra points on Kansas City spreads this year would have given you 15 wins on that leg of a teaser in the Chiefs 18 games this year, and you'd be on a current eight-game run. That's nothing to shake your head at when considering teaser options for this game, and taking the Chiefs at +5.5 for the Super Bowl does protect you against a lot of scenarios that could go against the Chiefs late. Definitely something to consider.

Teasing KC totals 'over' - dropping the number six points – would have brought you 11 wins in 18 tries this year. That is nothing special though, considering they cashed regular 'over' tickets in 10 of those games, so teasing Chiefs totals down this year would have brought you just one extra win relative to just taking the 'over'. Generally speaking, that's not a good look for this week, you are probably better off just taking the 'over' 54 for the game.

Teasing KC totals 'under' – adding six points to the number – would have given you two additional wins and a push on top of the regular eight 'unders' they finished the year with, so again, not entirely worth it overall, but the better option of the two, all things considered. But considering KC totals teased 'under' in these playoffs have been blown up basically right from the start, you can see why it will be tough to pull the trigger on this play for some.

San Francisco 6-Point Teaser Results: 2019

San Francisco was the better team of the two to use as a teaser option on the side this year, as there regular 11 ATS wins this year would have been boosted by four more victories had you grabbed the extra six points in all 18 of their games. Again, that's still only one leg of the teaser though.

Teasing SF totals 'over' would have got you a 13-5 O/U record overall, but nine of those 13 wins would have sailed 'over' the original number already. Meaning that a teased 'over' selection in San Fran's other nine games went just 4-5, nothing to write home about at all.

Finally, teasing SF totals 'under' would have finished with a 11-7 record overall, but again, eight of those 11 wins managed to stay below the original total. So taking extra points and going low was not a winning proposition at all in 49ers games, as a 3-7 record on teased 'unders' is far from good. This is music to the ears of those who are looking to tease this game 'over', but again it's just one piece of the entire puzzle.

Final Thoughts

Teasing 49ers games 'under' this year may have not produced a profit, but that's about the only negative for considering the 'under' as one of your teaser legs.

Historically, Super Bowls with totals in the 50's have been great to tease 'under' the number, and bumping this year's total up to 60 points does give you plenty of wiggle room. Given the potential for nerves, and the extreme prep both teams have had, seeing 61 or more points would have to have a lot of things go right for both offenses, as they'll likely be helped out by some turnovers as well. But that 10-1 record teasing the 'under' in Super Bowls with a total in the 50's is something my brain can't shake.

I do believe that teasing to the 'under' is the way to go on the side, and it's quite easy to make an argument for teasing both sides. KC at +5.5 is far from optimal from a numbers perspective with teasers, but that extra cushion on the Chiefs will likely be nice to have. Three of KC's four losses this year have come by at least six points though, so that's another thing to consider.

Which brings me back to the 49ers and teasing them up through those two key numbers of +3 and +7 as probably the better choice. San Francisco didn't lose a game by more then seven points this year, and the one that did land on that seven-point margin was about as fluky as it gets with the Atlanta Falcons scoring 14 points in the final two seconds of that game. Mathematically it makes sense, in terms of season history it makes sense, recent Super Bowl history teasing underdogs it makes sense, so regardless of the eventual result, teasing the Niners up the way I'd prefer to go.

Yes, a teaser of San Francisco +7.5 to Under 60 is somewhat against my parlay selection of KC ATS and Under from this piece, but it's not like I can't hit both. A game that finishes with fewer then 54 points has me break even at worst, and should KC win a tight game as the current point spread suggests, then both plays get us to the window.

Super Bowl 54 Teaser Best Bet

Best 6-Point Teaser Bet: San Francisco +7.5 to Under 60 points.



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