Over-Under NFL Week 9 Total Predictions, Odds

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

19 minute read

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Handicapping Week 9 Totals

-- We're on to Week 9 of the NFL regular season, and COVID-19 is rearing its ugly head yet again. The San Francisco 49ers closed their facilities and placed several key players on the Reserve/COVID list prior to Thursday's game against the Green Bay Packers, putting that game in peril.

-- The Detroit Lions are also dealing with a COVID situation, as QB Matthew Stafford was placed on the Reserve/COVID list due to close contact with a non-team member who was positive. He still has a chance to play in Sunday's game against the Minnesota Vikings if he doesn't test positive the rest of the week. He is eligible to come off the list then. QB Chase Daniel would get the starting nod under center if Stafford cannot go.

-- The Las Vegas Raiders posted their first 'under' result of the season in their road victory against the Cleveland Browns in the wind and occasional snow. The 'over' is still 5-1-1 through seven games, tied with the Tennessee Titans for the most over results in the AFC.

-- The New Orleans Saints hit the 'over' in their overtime road win against the Chicago Bears last week, and they're the only NFL team to go a perfect 7-for-7 so far this season. The Saints have scored at least 24 points in each of their outings, and they have allowed at least 23 points in every game. They face a rematch with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday night. Those teams hit the 'over' in Week 1, with the Saints winning 34-23.

-- The lowest total on the board for Sunday is in the Pittsburgh Steelers-Dallas Cowboys game. The Steelers head into this one on a 4-1-1 'over' run across the past six, including a 28-24 win in Baltimore and an 'over' result last weekend. As far as the Cowboys are concerned, how much difference did QB Dak Prescott make? Before he went down the Cowboys were averaging 33.0 PPG across the first five games. With QB Andy Dalton starting two games, and QB Ben DiNucci starting the next outing, the Cowboys have averaging just 7.3 PPG in three games since Dak went down. That makes Prescott is good for 25.7 PPG difference? That's impressive.

-- The highest total on the board, as of Thursday morning, is 55 in the Seattle Seahawks-Buffalo Bills game. It's the third trip for the Seahawks into the Eastern Time Zone already this season. Seattle enters No. 1 in the NFL with 34.3 PPG, and they're averaging 34.5 PPG in two previous trips East of the Mississippi River this season. We'll hit more on the Bills down below.=

Over-Under Line Moves

We've had a decent amount of movement for several totals in Week 9, with all of the movement pushing the totals down. Bettors have reacted early and often.

Down

• New Orleans at Tampa Bay (SNF): 54.5 to 51.5
• Detroit at Minnesota: 54 to 52
• Las Vegas at L.A. Chargers: 53.5 to 52
• Houston at Jacksonville: 51.5 to 50.5
• N.Y. Giants at Washington: 43 to 42

Up

• Denver at Atlanta: 47.5 to 50

Over-Under Betting Trends

Listed below are the largest leans for Week 9 as of Thursday.

• Baltimore at Indianapolis: Over 98%
• Denver at Atlanta: Over 95%
• Seattle at Buffalo: Over 88%
• Carolina at Kansas City: Over 80%
• Miami at Arizona: Over 79%
• Las Vegas at L.A. Chargers: Over 76%
• Pittsburgh at Dallas: Over 70%

• Houston at Jacksonville: Under 98%
• New Orleans at Tampa Bay (SNF): Under 79%
• N.Y. Giants at Washington: Under 79%
• New England at N.Y. Jets (MNF): Under 78%
• Chicago at Tennessee: Under 57%

Division Over-Under Notes

The 'over' went 5-2 in the seven NFL Divisional battles in Week 8, but the 'under' is still ahead 20-18 (52.6%) overall this season. We have another six divisional matchups on tap for Sunday.

Detroit at Minnesota: The Lions could be forced to start Daniel under center if Stafford is not activated Sunday from the Reserve/COVID list. Regardless of who is under center, top WR Kenny Golladay (hip) is expected to be on the shelf again due to injury, so that will hinder the offense. The Lions posted 21 points lat week, tying a season low, and they could go lower than that this weekend with their top receiver inactive and perhaps their backup under center. The Vikings won in Green Bay last week, winning 28-22 as the 'over' connected for the fourth time in the past five outings. The 'over' is 5-2 for Minnesota this season, including 3-0 at U.S. Bank Stadium in three home dates. The Vikings are averaging 27.7 PPG in those three home outings, while coughing up 43, 31 and 40, or an average of 38.0 PPG.

Houston at Jacksonville: The Jaguars are expected to turn to rookie QB Jake Luton, a sixth-round pick out of Oregon State, to start this weekend in place of QB Gardner Minshew, who is dealing with a fractured thumb. Luton will get the nod over veteran QB Mike Glennon. The 6'6/224 quarterback from the Pac-12 was mistake-free for the Beavers in his senior season. In fact, Luton, Tua and Ohio State's Justin Fields were the only three FBS signal callers to throw 21 or more touchdowns with three or less interceptions in 2019. So he has talent. Still, the Texans defense will be licking their chops and blitzing frequently, trying to confuse him, so the Jacksonville offense could struggle. After averaging 28.5 PPG in the first two games, the Jaguars have averaged just 19.4 PPG across the previous five, hitting the 'under' in three of the contests. That includes a 30-14 victory by the Texans in Houston in Week 5, easily hitting 'under' (55) in the first installment.

N.Y. Giants at Washington: In another rematch, the Giants and the Football Team hook up in D.C. New York's only victory of the season came in Week 6 against Washington at MetLife Stadium, 20-19, as the 'under' hit in the first meeting. The Giants offense has picked up a bit lately. They averaged just 11.8 PPG in the first four outings, but the offense has posted 34, 20, 21 and 23 across the past four, actually looking like an NFL caliber team. The last time we saw Washington was in Week 7 before its bye. They scored 25 points in a win over Dallas, although the 'under' has hit in each of its past three games, averaging 18.0 PPG, while allowing 30, 20 and 3. The 'under' is 6-2 in the previous eight meetings in this series, too.

Las Vegas at L.A. Chargers: The Raiders played in the bone-chilling cold on the shores of Lake Erie last week, battling a wintry mix and windy conditions off the water. The game against the Browns featured just one touchdown to WR Hunter Renfrow, as Vegas won 16-6. It was a season-low in points, and the Raiders are averaging just 18.0 PPG across the past two after going for 34, 34, 20, 23 and 40 across the first five, good for an average of 30.2 PPG. Perhaps they'll re-discovered the offense in controlled conditions indoors at SoFi Stadium. The Bolts hit the 'under' in the first three games, averaging just 17.3 PPG. However, rookie QB Justin Herbert has really come into his own, and the offense is clicking with 31, 27, 39 and 30 across the past four outings, all 'over' results.

New Orleans at Tampa Bay (SNF): (see below)

New England at N.Y. Jets (MNF): (see below)

Non-Conference Angles

Week 8 featured two AFC-NFC matchups and the totals saw the 'over/under' go 1-1.The Indianapolis Colts and Detroit Lions (49) provided plenty of fireworks in a 41-21 road victory by Indy, including a flurry of points in the fourth quarter. On the flip side, the Los Angeles Rams headed east to meet the Miami Dolphins in the starting debut of QB Tua Tagovailoa. He wasn't much of a factor, but 'under' bettors (46.5) had to sweat out a defensive touchdown and a special teams touchdown by Miami. We had 38 points on the board at halftime, but a total of just seven points in the second half in what amounted to a bit of a bad beat 'under' result.

 Denver at Atlanta: The Broncos are riding him after a walk-off touchdown against the Chargers, winning 31-30 in Denver last weekend as the 'over' cashed for the third time in four games. This will be Denver's fourth trip to the Eastern Time Zone already this season, with the 'over' hitting in two of those outings. They're averaging 25.3 PPG in those three trips to the East while allowing 22.0 PPG. The Falcons hit the 'over' in the first three game this season, but they're stepped it up on defense in recent weekends. After allowing 38, 40, 30 and 30 in the first four games, the Falcons have allowed just 23, 23, 23 and 17 in the previous four, including a 25-17 win and 'under' result in Carolina last Thursday. 

Seattle at Buffalo: The oddsmakers are expecting a shootout in Buffalo, as the total (55) is the highest on the board and counting. Seattle's offense is on fire, posting 414.4 total yards per game to rank third in the NFL, they're also third in passing yards per game (289.0) while going for 34.3 PPG to rank first in the NFL. On the flip side, the Seahawks are last in total yards allowed (460.9) and passing yards allowed (358.7), which is the perfect recipe for over results. In addition, the Seahawks are expected to be without RB Carlos Hyde (hamstring), while RB Chris Carson (foot) won't practice until Friday and he is a huge question mark. Seattle might pass early and often as a result. The Bills hit the 'over' in the first five games (4-0-1), but the 'under' is 2-1 in the previous three. QB Josh Allen has struggled a bit in the previous three, averaging 17.0 PPG in the past three while allowing 21.7 PPG in the past three.

Carolina at Kansas City: The Panthers hit the 'over' in the first two games, but the 'under' is on a 5-1 roll across the past six, including the last meeting against an AFC West team, the Chargers, in Week 3. The 'under' is also 3-1 in the past four as an underdog for Carolina. The Chiefs defense has stepped up across the past three outings, allowing just 17, 16 and 9, or an average of just 14.0 PPG. In fact, the under is 5-2 in the past seven for the defending champs. While Kansas City's offense is popping with 410.5 total yards per game and 286.4 passing yards per game to rank fourth in each category, and 31.6 PPG to rank second, they're on fire defensively. The Chiefs are third in the NFL with 201.3 passing yards allowed and 19.0 PPG, and first in takeaways wih 15, and a plus-10 turnover ratio.

Chicago at Tennessee: The Bears hit the 'over' last week in an overtime loss to the Saints, snapping a 4-0 'under' run. Chicago has scored just 23, 10, 23, 20 and 11 in the past five. QB Nick Foles hasn't exactly been the answer, but they can't go back to QB Mitchell Trubisky. The latter is nursing a shoulder injury and likely to miss at least two games until after the bye in Week 12. The Titans hit the 'under' in Week 1, but that's the only one so far. The 'over' is 5-0-1 across the past six outings. Their defense has been a problem lately, allowing 31.3 PPG during the past three, while averaging 32.0 PPG over the past six.

Pittsburgh at Dallas: The Cowboys are still in the process of deciding a quarterback with QB Andy Dalton dealing with COVID and making his way back from concussion. QB Ben DiNucci was unimpressive last week in Philadelphia, so the Cowboys are turning to practice squad call-up QB Cooper Rush or QB Garrett Gilbert for the start. Whether it's Rush or Gilbert, they'll be making their first NFL start. Dallas is averaging just 7.3 PPG in three games since Prescott went down for the season, all 'under' results. At least the defense has been a bit better, allowing 24.0 PPG after giving up 34 or more points in five straight from Week 2 through 6.

Primetime Points

-- For the second consecutive weekend the 'under' went 1-2 in the three primetime games, as only the Tampa Bay-New York Giants game just went 'over' (47), helped in part by 16 total points in the fourth quarter to get the Monday game across the finish line.
 
-- The 'under' has hit at a 16-10 (61.5%) clip in 26 primetime games so far this season. 

Sunday Night Football Notes

The New Orleans Saints-Tampa Bay Buccaneers square off at Raymond James Stadium in a battle of future Hall of Fame quarterbacks Tom Brady and Drew Brees. The latter appeared on the mid-week injury report due to a minor right (throwing) shoulder injury, but there's no way he sits for this one. The good news for the Saints is that both WRs Emmanuel Sanders (COVID) and WR Michael Thomas (hamstring) should be back, too. And RB Alvin Kamara (toe) is on the injury report, but he confirmed Wednesday that he'll be there. The Saints are averaging 29.4 PPG while allowing 28.1 PPG, and they're the only NFL team to hit the 'over' in all seven outings. That includes the Week 1 battle against the Bucs, a 34-23 win by New Orleans. After a couple of primetime stinkers in Week 8, this one should make you happy you waited all day for Sunday night.

Monday Night Football Notes

And then there is the New England Patriots-New York Jets to finish the Week 9 schedule. The Pats hit the 'over' last week in Buffalo, barely, losing 24-21 to snap a 3-0 'under' run. The Pats have posted just 10, 12, 6 and 21 over the previous four, or an average of just 12.3 PPG. The Jets have hit the 'under' in four in a row, and the offense is atrocious. Gane Green has just 10, 0, 10 and 9 over the past four outings, an average of just 7.3 PPG. In their past two at home the defense has been at least respectable, including an 18-10 loss to the Bills last time out on Week 7 at MetLife Stadium.

Fearless Predictions

I was spinning my wheels in Week 8. The Raiders-Browns (51.5) game never came close to going 'over', while I just missed the first-half under (23.5) in the Steelers-Ravens game, as they posted 24 total points. I did hit the 'under' in Jets-Chiefs. My three-team teaser cashed, however, so I ended up in the black (+$15). Overall, I am officially back in the black for the season (+$5). We'll look for a plus-number in Week 9 with four more wagers to build that bankroll back up.

• Best Over: Over 52 Las Vegas at L.A. Chargers
• Best Under: Under 50.5 Houston at Jacksonville
• Best First-Half Total: Under 21.5 New England at N.Y. Jets

Three-Team Total Teaser (+7, +135)

• Under 59.5 Detroit at Minnesota
• Under 57.5 Houston at Jacksonville
• Over 40 Baltimore at Indianapolis

Week 8 & Overall Betting Results

Depending when and where you placed your bets, the ‘over’ went 9-4 in Week 8, and the over has a 64-54-1 (54.2%) advantage to date. 

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